Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Well, the swing by UKMO to support GFS with that low over Newfoundland at +144 hours is noteworthy.

If we could at least sort that out, attention can turn to getting enough amplification with the next trough-ridge combination to its west. GEM shows how things could still go very wrong (for the first week of Dec) even with the low at +144 being held up.

ECM is on track to win the 'most bizarre output of the week' award but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not got the broader idea right... namely that trough not being held up. 

 

In the end, we're chasing a cold blast for a time period at least a week ahead of when the signals really start to come together, so anything we achieve could be considered a bonus. Of course, that's extremely presumptuous regarding mid-Dec  which is risky behaviour I know!

ITS like chasing a rainbow with a pot of gold at the end,  the only problem is when we get to the gold the rainbow moves!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows an Arctic incursion

[Seasonality]

Apart from yr.no does anyone know of any websites that use ECM output to generate their weather forecasts? If I recall correctly the Norwegian site uses pretty much just the ECM output.

[jvenge]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Apart from yr.no does anyone know of any websites that use ECM output to generate their weather forecasts? If I recall correctly the Norwegian site uses pretty much just the ECM output.

It's the only one I know of. Maybe others do but don't explicitly state it.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

GFS showing HP amplifying then settling over us then amplifying to W/NW cold air pouring down then HP settling to your W/SW then then for me come the end of the run on 9th (deep FI) signs of some deep depressions that could run over the top of the Atlantic HP as the link to Greenland doesn't hold.

Well for me it is more on the money that ECM, as I think generally cold will be the theme but  no arctic lock out.  PV displacement likely to prevent HP lockout but at same time bring a dominating below average flow/feed from NW. Of cse there will be wind changes but the theme.  So an ECM Bartlett doesn't look right to me, more transient as per GFS and what I think UkMO would show too

BFTP 

Edited November 23, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

New eps drops the anomoly across us again but fails to drive the upper trough east as the Siberian vortex trends to axis towards Griceland rather than scandi

thst will drive a flatter Atlantic resulting in fairly zonal flow for us - potentially cold zonality for n Britain but no low temps for the southern half. Sidney will be delighted 

[frosty ground]

45 minutes ago, knocker said:

Quite warms the cockles- or even Sidney's nuts

Is their a relevant chart for 2m temps?

[Ali1977]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

New eps drops the anomoly across us again but fails to drive the upper trough east as the Siberian vortex trends to axis towards Griceland rather than scandi

thst will drive a flatter Atlantic resulting in fairly zonal flow for us - potentially cold zonality for n Britain but no low temps for the southern half. Sidney will be delighted 

I think Sydney needs to go into hibernation now, he's had his fun!!  

It now looks like a case of enjoy some dryer weather, and nice frosty days up North, take a bit of zonal pain then see whats showing towards mid Dec.  Synoptic s don't need to be perfect to deliver the good from Mid Dec onwards so more chances are likely to happen with the disrupted PV that looks like staying as the form horse.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[Johnp]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

New eps drops the anomoly across us again but fails to drive the upper trough east as the Siberian vortex trends to axis towards Griceland rather than scandi

thst will drive a flatter Atlantic resulting in fairly zonal flow for us - potentially cold zonality for n Britain but no low temps for the southern half. Sidney will be delighted 

Doesn't sound much fun!

Then again, yesterday they were showing something different and could do so again tomorrow.

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Is their a relevant chart for 2m temps?

Yes there is, maybe @knocker will be kind enough to post it for us

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Yes there is, maybe @knocker will be kind enough to post it for us

I only see the ECM one in F. Not sure how useful that is :-)

[A.J]

a few posts removed.....model discussion only please.........contrary to popular belief, posts referencing fictitious squirrels do not count 

Edited November 23, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

New eps drops the anomoly across us again but fails to drive the upper trough east as the Siberian vortex trends to axis towards Griceland rather than scandi

thst will drive a flatter Atlantic resulting in fairly zonal flow for us - potentially cold zonality for n Britain but no low temps for the southern half. Sidney will be delighted 

Aye sounds reflective of yesterdays meto update, sounds like Atlantic in the box seat come early Dec  not what we wanted to see, hopefully it will be shortlived, the trouble is once zonality sets in, it can last a long time.Yes it might be a cooler zonality but it will be little use i would guess unless your high up, up north...

[Summer Sun]

If fog persists in Glasgow we could see 2 days in a row where temps don't get above 1c

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye sounds reflective of yesterdays meto update, sounds like Atlantic in the box seat come early Dec  not what we wanted to see, hopefully it will be shortlived, the trouble is once zonality sets in, it can last a long time.Yes it might be a cooler zonality but it will be little use i would guess unless your high up, up north...

That seems fair enough , ties in with N Miller . As long as the window of opportunity isn't missed i'm ok with some Atlantic weather ....................short-lived of course

[Frosty.]

There are plenty of arctic incursions on the GEFS 00z perturbations as well as the op in the T+240 range..i haven't shown them all, there are some short- lived cold snaps and some that look more substantial.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[swfc]

Hmm bit hit and miss given the signals and projections coming of the esb.Strange after the met ete calling a front loaded winter ete and the earlier forecast of a early dec ridge ete towards the west of greenland.Guess il also have to update my forecast!!!!!!

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hmm bit hit and miss given the signals and projections coming of the esb.Strange after the met ete calling a front loaded winter ete and the earlier forecast of a early dec ridge ete towards the west of greenland.Guess il also have to update my forecast!!!!!!

They could be wrong I guess, as in the Atlantic may not temporarily win out and we could have heights build to our NW as per a few runs we've had lately.  Already this run at 162 there seems to be some decent blocking in the Atlantic, lets see if that pushes WAA up towards Greenland.  The high in the Atlantic may stop warmer W/SW winds, maybe even if the Atlantic wins out for a while it'll still be a colder WNW/NW feed.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

They could be wrong I guess, as in the Atlantic may not temporarily win out and we could have heights build to our NW as per a few runs we've had lately.

And now?

[Ravelin]

Well the changes keep coming. GFS 06z out to t156 shows a fair change from the 0z

0Z    6Z

[Ravelin]

Big differences by t280..

0Z    6Z

Looks better to me, not that I trust anything when it's chopping and changing so much.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ravelin

[Ali1977]

Well the Atlantic didn't win out, this is a great run and not hugely FI - surely wrong going off the latest METO info!! 

WHERE ON EARTH did this run come from, potentially the best run this year and only at 192!! Block into Greeny looks firm, lets see where it goes and what the ENS have to say!! Hopes are not high.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[Nick F]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye sounds reflective of yesterdays meto update, sounds like Atlantic in the box seat come early Dec  not what we wanted to see, hopefully it will be shortlived, the trouble is once zonality sets in, it can last a long time.Yes it might be a cooler zonality but it will be little use i would guess unless your high up, up north...

Aye sounds reflective of yesterdays meto update, sounds like Atlantic in the box seat come early Dec  not what we wanted to see, hopefully it will be shortlived, the trouble is once zonality sets in, it can last a long time.Yes it might be a cooler zonality but it will be little use i would guess unless your high up, up north...

I think probable return to Atlantic westerlies next week, as our high next few days/weekend is pushed SE into near continent, will be short-lived.

There is no trop PV over Greenland nor NE Canada that is producing a deep thermal gradient to fire up a strong zonal jet towards the UK as per recent winters.

In fact, the strat and trop PV is and has been parked over Russia/E Asia and is driving a strong Pacific jet at western Canada and Wern U.S. - which is not such great news for a cold start to winter for much of the U.S away from the northern states.

With the block over E Canada trying to push out across Greenland and NW Atlantic, the 06z GFS once again hinting at height rises over far N Atlantic which could lead to an arctic outbreak down to the UK ...

Edited November 23, 2016 by Nick F

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the Atlantic didn't win out, this is a great run and not hugely FI - surely wrong going off the latest METO info!! 

WHERE ON EARTH did this run come from!!!

Forget the pub run, the 06z has been out all night and still going strong.

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the Atlantic didn't win out, this is a great run and not hugely FI - surely wrong going off the latest METO info!! 

WHERE ON EARTH did this run come from!!!

I think the 6Z has found the 18z Pub Run's stash of booze. I'd snap up what it's offering any day though, by t192 especially