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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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The 7-12 GEFS mean anomaly drops the trough a fair way south to Iberia which leaves the door ajar for some interesting surface evolutions none particularly on the cold side. In the later period it's still looking at what has been indicated recently with some ridging mid Atlantic with the trough just the east of the UK. This portends a north westerly upper flow and the more unsettled weather perhaps more likely in the north. Temps variable but around average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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There are some nice gefs 12z charts in there ,and looking into FL for fun,i thought that i would cherry pick this one out(pert 6),PV punch drunk in all four corners of the ring

gensnh-6-1-384.png

and i can see why,-16,we are getting there

gfsnh-10-384.pngtempresult_lzn5.gif

and a look at the 8-10 dayer from noaa showing a upper trough into scandi

814day.03.gif

i am looking forward to the new ecm which starts very soon:D

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

i am looking forward to the new ecm which starts very soon:D

Disaster incoming with the red cross on full alert and a sackful of prozac from across the waters of france from a guy called nick :-)

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looks lovely!:santa-emoji:

GFSP15EU12_240_1.png

GFSP15EU12_264_1.png

Ok if you like short lived cool northerlies, which only deliver to the north of the Uk.  I set my bar higher, its only from the east that floats my boat.

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4 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

Ok if you like short lived cool northerlies, which only deliver to the north of the Uk.  I set my bar higher, its only from the east that floats my boat.

It still looks nicer than swly mush:)

Nice to see the cold on the Gfs 12z, hope its a sign of things to come with winter just around the corner.

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It still looks nicer than swly mush:)

Lol, it would deliver to a lot of places, if it came off. :) Northerlys can sometimes be nearly as good as easterlies 

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15 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yeah - I know. I've read this forum for years and know the personalities. But interestingly the opportunity to take the bait actually allows a clarity of response that I suspect is helpful to others. Such posts are therefore perversely helpful!

 

Indeed, a learning experience is offered by giving a clear and reasoned rebuttal against the obvious trolling. ECM rolling out. Where will it end up? An exciting evening of model watching to come.

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ECM looking somewhere in between the UKMO and GFS with its upstream developments off the eastern seaboard. 

 

EDIT +144 closer to GFS than UKMO 

GFSgfsnh-0-144.png?12ECMECH1-144.GIF?22-0 VS UKMO UN144-21.GIF?22-18

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Funny. For all the life of me, at T144 on the ECM I thought we were headed for an Atlantic lock-out. Didn't see the Azores High splitting the low heights in the Atlantic. Must have been close!

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22 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Lol, it would deliver to a lot of places, if it came off. :) Northerlys can sometimes be nearly as good as easterlies 

I am glad that you said sometimes lol,it depends if we get a disturbance in the flow from a northerly like a trough or polar low,otherwise we end up with a wishbone effect with east/west coasts and north facing coasts that will benefit in the form of wintry/snow showers and mainland staying dry but cold.

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can someone switch the new ECM off and back on again, the cold is still to Far East!!!!

image.jpeg

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ECM to 192, interest is there lets see if retrogression is on the line.

ECH1-192.GIF?22-0

Edited by SN0WM4N

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am glad that you said sometimes lol,it depends if we get a disturbance in the flow from a northerly like a trough or polar low,otherwise we end up with a wishbone effect with east/west coasts and north facing coasts that will benefit in the form of wintry/snow showers and mainland staying dry but cold.

Exactly, that's why we want to see height rises to the NW so if we do get an Arctic incursion, it could last 3/4 days or more and bring opportunities for troughs to swing south in the cold flow.

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Ecm 192 another Hp cell bang over us again its like rinse and repeat at the moment!

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High pressure becomes dominant on the Ecm 12z, just like the 00z which is good news as it would mean dry with sunny spells, light winds and plenty of overnight frosts, some sharp with fog too, some of it freezing, some days would be borderline ice days with persistent fog.

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp500.png

96_mslp500.png

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECH1-216.GIF?22-0 

Where is this heading?

UK Weather - Season 2 (Winter)

That's where!  An epic never ending story full of potential (and broken dreams).....

Or a Northerly is the less dramatic answer.....or maybe not!

Edited by Kentish Snowman

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Exactly, that's why we want to see height rises to the NW so if we do get an Arctic incursion, it could last 3/4 days or more and bring opportunities for troughs to swing south in the cold flow.

Yes,and all the while these charts keep on showing there is every reason to be optimistic ,surely we will get our bite of the cherry sooner or later and it's still november!!!

and like you have said on numerous occasions(forgotten how many times lol)  it beats the mild SW'ly warm Atlantic junk at this time of the year and i don't see that at the moment...oops i hope that i haven't jinxed it:oops:

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Sadly I jinxed it! Still a good ECM T240hrs and miles better than the 00hrs run but the outputs seem very unreliable at the moment so I wouldn't put too much faith in anything past T144hrs.

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To repeat those immortal words in Total Recall! Get ready for a surprise! Nice ECM T216hrs with the cut off low and northerly on the way at T240hrs.

And typical of the last few weeks, we are denied a fantastic chart :rofl:

ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

Classic west based -NAO

Anyway pointless at this time, the wait goes on but at least the signals remain positive.

Unfortunately the trend to cut some frigid air underneath the developing Scandi high has fallen away somewhat with a UK high more likely to remain in place during the mid-range.

ECM1-144.GIF?22-0   UW144-21.GIF?22-18   gfs-0-144.png?12

GFS still offers hope but I guess it is hard to believe given recent performances. 

So becoming dry for most areas towards the end of this week and remaining so for a good while. Not too bad and plenty of scope for model drama as we try to find a way out of this upcoming UK high spell.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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