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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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ECM

21st to 27th

Above average temps in the SE below average the further west and north you go - rain below average in Scotland and NI slightly above average for England and Wales

meTz20161121_0000+16800.pngmeRz20161121_0000+16800.png

28th to 4th

Temperatures slightly below average UK wide rain signals more mixed

meTz20161121_0000+33600.pngmeRz20161121_0000+33600.png

5th to 11th

No strong signals for temp and rain

meTz20161121_0000+50400.pngmeRz20161121_0000+50400.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The final run of the current cycle eps is notable and offers a good comparison for the 12z

Marked low anomaly settles over U.K. And scandi post day 10, slowly edging into nw Europe in general

provides for cold surprises 

Yes, its much better in graph form than the 12z.

A lot more in the cold clustering right at the end where as the 12z yesterday had a big late swing towards warm Tm temps.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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No a great deal of rain for the rest of this month hints of it turning wetter as we move into December

Cx3WOpXWIAAho2h.jpg

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Deflation all round this morning with last nights ops seemingly a one hit wonder.

The issue this morning is a  change to the upstream profile which means the low over Newfoundland phases with the filling low south of Greenland. This then pulls all that energy over the top of the high, last nights had that nose of high pressure holding back that NF low.

If you're looking for something positive then NCEP do expect the flow upstream to re-amplify, theres also more uncertainty over the USA which does impact the pattern to the west of the UK.

Whether we get back to anything like last nights ECM is doubtful however I wouldn't take too much past T144hrs as gospel because of those expected upstream changes.

At least it looks like drying out for the UK which I'm sure will come as a relief to those effected by the recent high winds and torrential rain, some frost and fog is possible as high pressure takes over for a few days.


 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No a great deal of rain for the rest of this month hints of it turning wetter as we move into December

Cx3WOpXWIAAho2h.jpg

Or perhaps, snowier? :cold:

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26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No a great deal of rain for the rest of this month hints of it turning wetter as we move into December

Cx3WOpXWIAAho2h.jpg

FI looking good there, plenty around -5 c including the big guns. Baring in mind this is the London graph and early Dec. 

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31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Deflation all round this morning with last nights ops seemingly a one hit wonder.

The issue this morning is a  change to the upstream profile which means the low over Newfoundland phases with the filling low south of Greenland. This then pulls all that energy over the top of the high, last nights had that nose of high pressure holding back that NF low.

If you're looking for something positive then NCEP do expect the flow upstream to re-amplify, theres also more uncertainty over the USA which does impact the pattern to the west of the UK.

Whether we get back to anything like last nights ECM is doubtful however I wouldn't take too much past T144hrs as gospel because of those expected upstream changes.

At least it looks like drying out for the UK which I'm sure will come as a relief to those effected by the recent high winds and torrential rain, some frost and fog is possible as high pressure takes over for a few days.


 

 

 

Agree with this post 100%!! GPs post has cheered me a little but im still seeing a sinking UK high as we move into Dec, hopefully not. :)

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agree with this post 100%!! GPs post has cheered me a little but im still seeing a sinking UK high as we move into Dec, hopefully not. :)

Eeeep. Going into December at or below average is a fairly good place to be, I think. I know there is the hunt for deep cold and ice days, but they should be treated as a bonus really.

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6 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Eeeep. Going into December at or below average is a fairly good place to be, I think. I know there is the hunt for deep cold and ice days, but they should be treated as a bonus really.

Exactly! And deep cold and ice days should be treated as a rare bonus in Britain, not something to be expected and then get despondent about when they don't occur. A bit of realism about the British climate would make people here much less miserable.

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Does anyone know if the new ECM starting tonight will have more options to look through, and break the run down into smaller time segments?

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5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Exactly! And deep cold and ice days should be treated as a rare bonus in Britain, not something to be expected and then get despondent about when they don't occur. A bit of realism about the British climate would make people here much less miserable.

Aye, im sure there is some logic there, im the first to admit i get downbeat probably too easily.)

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1 hour ago, warrenb said:

I agree, look at the charts for mid December 1962 for example. Flat as a pancake pattern. Even the best winters have a few goes before getting there.

 

Rrea00119621216.gif

Seen a few runs with air from Africa getting up to us.   That's not unlike periods of November in 1946 tbh  (a month that had no air frosts!)  For me the pattern was set in October as it has been in previous cold winters.  The constant tittilation and let down the models seem to be giving us lately is not a real surprise.  In fact I think of it as a good sign as perhaps they try and get to grip with conditions that don't have much historical precedence to go by.  We're in for a cold one.....no doubt in my mind.....but i would not at all be surprised to see the signs of that cold in the model appear suddenly with 4 days notice and then materialise, instead of 10 days time and then not. I don't fancy this will be soon. I'm looking late December for the sustained stuff, but always a chance of one or two "cool down"  (I didn't want to use warm up!)   sessions prior to the real thing  :) lately

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21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Exactly! And deep cold and ice days should be treated as a rare bonus in Britain, not something to be expected and then get despondent about when they don't occur. A bit of realism about the British climate would make people here much less miserable.

Let's also bear in mind that deep cold isn't needed to bring what most coldies want. A number of people on here, such as myself, are happy with frost, fog and snow. All of that can happen before 'deep' cold arrives. Most people from what I can see are well aware of the rarity of deep cold in this country. Just standard cold weather however is par for the course in a British winter...

... which brings me to my next point. The GFS 06Z wonderfully shows how each attempt to get mild weather in fails with temperatures never really climbing to above average values. Indeed, the end of the run again shows low heights over Italy with a more favourable Scandi High, much more use than the useless Siberian High. Any trough behaviour is very messy with a lot of disruption happening around our shores. All in all, I'm not worried about the models at the moment; the cold will come as it always does (super El Ninos aside) and it will probably only show up in the models last minute as has been intimated above.

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I actually think initially this morning's runs are encouraging as they tried to edge the high that will be over us further North and Westwards hence we do get more of a ENE'ly drift for a while but sadly things upstream on the other side of the pond are not going to plan so that probably what helps to sink the attempted Scandi high. I do think this will be a missed opportunity if this happens although in fairness the models have been consistent with this but still a bit of time left for that to change.

High pressure will dominate, still wondering just how much cloud will come into play and with upper air temps being quite positive, then whilst frost could still be likely, I don't think we are looking at anything too severe in most places.

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Hmmm, first signs of a change in the meto mrf, now sugesting the high getting pushed east allowing milder wet and windy weather in from the Atlantic  - they cover all bases by suggesting possible snowfall in the extended, all the same after viewing the NWP this morning i had a hunch it was a matter of time before we started seeing the text mentioning Atlantic lows..

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm, first signs of a change in the meto mrf, now sugesting the high getting pushed east allowing milder wet and windy weather in from the Atlantic  - they cover all bases by suggesting possible snowfall in the extended, all the same after viewing the NWP this morning i had a hunch it was a matter of time before we started seeing the text mentioning Atlantic lows..

Yes seen this, I mentioned yesterday it backtracked slightly although others didn't agree.  Today's write up for 1st week into Dec definitely looks like the Atlantic wins out - but for how long is anyone's guess.  Still NO sign of a proper block to any sector of the North, up until the end of Dec week one that is.

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes seen this, I mentioned yesterday it backtracked slightly although others didn't agree.  Today's write up for 1st week into Dec definitely looks like the Atlantic wins out - but for how long is anyone's guess.  Still NO sign of a proper block to any sector of the North, up until the end of Dec week one that is.

Short term pain long term gain hopefully.:)

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes seen this, I mentioned yesterday it backtracked slightly although others didn't agree.  Today's write up for 1st week into Dec definitely looks like the Atlantic wins out - but for how long is anyone's guess.  Still NO sign of a proper block to any sector of the North, up until the end of Dec week one that is.

 

 

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h850t850eu.png

High pressure is in the right place over Scandi.
Low pressure is in the right place of Italy.
 

That break off of high pressure to the south of the UK is a pain, unless it gets sucked up by the Scandi High to allow heights underneath the block. Would love to be able to see the later slides.

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Just now, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

Yes this looks like when we could get something colder over the next few weeks, perfect time for the Christmas break hopefully.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes this looks like when we could get something colder over the next few weeks, perfect time for the Christmas break hopefully.

Blocked drier could still be mild though, IF gives no indication that it will be cold. :oops:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Nice optimistic post, mpkio2. Just one question, though: what do you mean by 'differation'?:help:

LOL, I just basically mean same theme just a little different. :cc_confused:

As you can see, around t144 all models look the same, so same theme, but some of the positioning of high/low are different from each other.

~mpkio2~

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