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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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The latest from Ian F yesterday was EC46 still shows blocked pattern to establish into Dec, whilst not shown in the models yet I am still holding out on this, especially into the 2nd week of Dec and beyond.  This prediction does seem to have slipped slightly to the right but it's still there - I admit I've been hoping it clawed forward a few weeks but it hasn't.  We have already seen some pretty good snowfalls and severe frosts (-12C) up North and it's still over a week to the beginning of Winter - that is pretty good I reckon.  There is no sign of PV cranking up as per the last few years, and the strat looks pretty warm into Dec, although no SSW forecast to happen just yet.

Surface pressure remains high for the whole GFS run over the Pole, and heights also look good - No blues and standard purples in that area.  With this as it is the chance of WAA and the outlook rapidly changing in my mind is still a big possibility - you can completely change the whole NH setup in the matter of days with a few miner tweaks, maybe that could happen.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The final run of the current cycle eps is notable and offers a good comparison for the 12z

Marked low anomaly settles over U.K. And scandi post day 10, slowly edging into nw Europe in general

provides for cold surprises 

The sounds good Blue - hopefully the new model has the same idea.  

Some say you should compare the same run daily rather than each run individually, so with that I hope the 12z offers support to yesterdays.  It would just be nice to get 2 or 3 runs in a row showing similarities at the 240 mark, changes beyond then are always going to happen.

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53 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

A few things  that stood out to me, firstly is why did everyone go wild over one ecm run last night? Exciting run I get that but one run should still make us skeptical until we see consistency, secondly this morning ecm after reading some comments on here I thought would be showing offensive charts lol but actually it's a fairly nice run. We have Europe going very cold and staying cold, and considering all these easterly spells we are having this autumn gives us more confidence that the next one could well be very different. And anything after t168 is up for grabs, litterelly it changes like the clappers and I never take it seriously apart try to pick patterns out. I think the cold could well come closer than is been modelled simply because these set up a are notoriously hard to master and quite offers the mods are way to progressive in moving it on

And lastly I really shouldn't pay much too much attention to long range forecasts apart from a possible pattern change etc because we have all been chasing cold now for 4 wks already and the cold spells are either very placid or just get moved backwards again so in apart from thinking this year has potential to be very different. 

Excellent point unless we  have consistency in the models you have  be cautious!

It will be interesting to see the 12z later to see what unfolds.

Experience teaches us to be patient and not to over react to one bad run,having said that the ECM  Is fine.

More runs needed as usual and fingers crossed we will hit the Jackpot by mid-December! 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Not seeing the vortex really cranking up. Not exactly a raging coherent blob out in GFS far FI. Where do you get that from?

 

gfsnh-0-384.png

from this chart unless the canada part of the vortex drains east south east then perhaps then id agree

although a split vortex may happen but but id be happy to be wrong come december 

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Hi all long time lurker 

I think we could see some big changes in the v short term in the models which will have a big knock on effect. 

These changes that could happen come in the shape of the models underestimating the strength of the block and not moddeling the energy coming from Greenland. Rather than the energy going NE and topperling the block I have a feeling the energy will actually go underneath and support the block and be the trigger to bring the cold air to us. 

So it is something to keep an eye on

Tom J 

Edited by Tom Jarvis

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Hoping for some changes mid term because (and i know this will NOT be popular) all i can see is Hp slipping into Europe and the jet rolling over the top come Dec, thats really not a pattern i want to see, as ever time will tell, meto updates will reveal more, sorry to sound pessimstic... :(

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Into the 10-15 period the anomalies are still seeing the percentage play as ridging into N. Canada, trough south west of the US with associated trough along the eastern seaboard. Thus we have a flatter Atlantic (perhaps some ridging) with an upper flow from the westerly quadrant with the jet running out of the southern States to a UK/ Scandinavian trough. The orientation and intensity of the latter still to be ascertained. So probably an unsettled period with temps a little below average. Nothing threatening the Xmas barbeque so far

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Into the 10-15 period the anomalies are still seeing the percentage play as ridging into N. Canada, trough south west of the US with associated trough along the eastern seaboard. Thus we have a flatter Atlantic (perhaps some ridging) with an upper flow from the westerly quadrant with the jet running out of the southern States to a UK/ Scandinavian trough. The orientation and intensity of the latter still to be ascertained. So probably an unsettled period with temps a little below average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Looking similar to yesterdays 12z there Knocker, nothing like the 00z which is a good thing for the coldies among us -  Also backs up what Bluearmy said about what the final EPS run was showing too.

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The model output up until next Tuesday offers some nice late autumn cool settled weather. With a bit of luck some clear skies in the mix for some fog and frost and sunshine by day. 

Beyond that, who knows but I'm happy so far with set up. 

Surprised by the flooding yesterday as its been a dry Autumn thus far. 

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4 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

The model output up until next Tuesday offers some nice late autumn cool settled weather. With a bit of luck some clear skies in the mix for some fog and frost and sunshine by day. 

Beyond that, who knows but I'm happy so far with set up. 

Surprised by the flooding yesterday as its been a dry Autumn thus far. 

Yes it's true vis a very dry Autumn but there was a lot of rain in a pretty short time frame in the south west. We are talking up to 4in

Edited by knocker

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Yes, that's the difference knocker - torrential rain in a short space of time and leaves in drains etc. 

Certainly different to weeks of frontal rain coming through. Reminded me a little of the July 2007 floods. 

More dry weather ahead I'm pleased to say.

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Happy with the overnight output? = Yes!

Why? = We finally see Eastern Europe going cold even very cold and it's not too far away for us to be left out entirely. 

Explain : For new members this year in the past when we have had a sniff of a cold easterly or north easterly wind the output from models always seems to place the pattern (Cold weather) too far east as the pattern comes from mid term to countdown we see it more often correct further west so something to look out for in the mid term if the signal is not lost going forward.

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From a coldies point of view i am happy at the moment with the charts out too 168 hours ,as thats a week away and a long time in forecasting .Final positioning of the high pressure and of course intensity and orientation still up for grabs ,so trying to fathom out what will be happening in ten days time seems pointless for us to worry about [but i can understand the frustrations of some ] Todays met update will give us some clues ,and i for one use this as the unseen Model plus i tend to look at charts out to 168 hrs as a guide ,well next stop for me GFS  after a coffee ,enjoy your day gang :friends::cold:.

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11 minutes ago, legritter said:

From a coldies point of view i am happy at the moment with the charts out too 168 hours ,as thats a week away and a long time in forecasting .Final positioning of the high pressure and of course intensity and orientation still up for grabs ,so trying to fathom out what will be happening in ten days time seems pointless for us to worry about [but i can understand the frustrations of some ] Todays met update will give us some clues ,and i for one use this as the unseen Model plus i tend to look at charts out to 168 hrs as a guide ,well next stop for me GFS  after a coffee ,enjoy your day gang :friends::cold:.

Hi,

I'm surprised more people didn't notice, but the 6z significantly upgrades the cold temperatures expected from T150 or so, out to t180 so far and most of the UK would be 7 or so degrees below normal. Let's see what happens after..

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Messy output continues as expected but I think the GFS 6Z is slightly better than the 0Z at t228

0Z gfsnh-0-234.png  6Z gfsnh-0-228.png?6

In reality I expect thing to chop and change for a few days yet as these sort of slack patterns to our West are hell for the models to get a grip on.

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Messy output continues as expected but I think the GFS 6Z is slightly better than the 0Z at t228

0Z gfsnh-0-234.png  6Z gfsnh-0-228.png?6

In reality I expect thing to chop and change for a few days yet as these sort of slack patterns to our West are hell for the models to get a grip on.

Yes, latest run has no high pressure in Europe, so nothing stopping the trough dropping through the UK, then SE through Europe which could introduce heights to the NW and a colder Polar sourced flow.

Edited by Ali1977

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12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, latest run has no high pressure in Europe, so nothing stopping the trough dropping through the UK, then SE through Europe introducing heights to the NW and a colder Polar sourced flow.

It's trying, but way out in FI yet again.

gfsnh-0-300.png?6  gfsnh-1-300.png?6

Edit: Doesn't go anywhere particularly interesting though.

Edited by Ravelin

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2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's trying, but way out in FI yet again.

gfsnh-0-300.png?6  gfsnh-1-300.png?6

Morning all. I think based on the various changes going on from run to run in F1 period its best look no further than the latest chart (850mb ) at 144 hours. All models seem fairly uniform at this stage. The chart below introduces a colder flow into much of Northern Europe including UK and Eire. Will be good for a dryer spell of weather for most of you lot after the torrents and damaging winds of the past few days. Here in the Eastern Alps we have air flow out of Africa with forecast temps of 22c this afternoon in Upper Salzburg. The snow is disappearing at a fast rate this morning with the freezing level currently well above 2000m. The chart below does at least show some Arctic air heading our way eventually, but I fear no Saturday ski-ing this week as planned.

 C

h850t850eu.png

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Fascinating circumstances and prospects right now.

First week of December coming into view, and, with not all the ducks properly aligned (just yet), we are looking at below average temps for much of UK, more so Scotland.

The convective anomaly centred over the Indian Ocean is showing eastward propagation. Slow, but steady.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.jpg

As soon as that hits the Maritimes, we should see a more amplified hemispheric pattern develop centred on a poleward displaced North Pacific ridge. We are already beginning to see this in the extended range modelling.

The mid Atlantic ridge also likely to gain traction under this regime.

Angular momentum will also spike once the convective wave pushes into the West Pacific with a +ve mountain torque, with likely hemispheric reinforcement of Rossby Wave pattern.

The stratosphere also holding deep interest. That ridge associated with the initial warming phase is starting to look like it will drift around the Arctic basin, becoming Atlantic based week 2-3. With another warming over Siberia, the Aleutian stratospheric ridge likely to be in play over the top of a tropospheric ridge - could well be a sizeable height anomaly developing in the North Pacific through Alaska during that time. So that means we may well have two ridges peprendicular to the Pole - ripe conditions to support tropospheric cross polar ridges. Keep an eye on the GFS and GEFS as they are just starting to advertise early stages of this.

That sounds a lot more promising. I remember our conversation from last week for the fun and games to start dec10th ish.  Looks like your going to be close and with @fergieweather informing us of mid December being on the cold side then hopefully we will see some lovely winter charts with a few snow opportunities (I think more especially coastal areas prone to showers from N/NW/NE.)  let's hope so. 

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A good shot of cold heading into E.Europe/Russia around day 8.-ECM Mean chart

EDH0-168.gif

 

Unfortunately this sums up our current situation,close at times but the wave pattern is just not falling for the UK to get the deep cold here.

It's a frustrating NH pattern for cold seekers i think.We are almost in a good position just looking at the overall Polar profile.

We have continual modeling of a -ve AO highlighting the still weaker vortex with a trend to move the main segment towards the Siberian side.The problem though is the the -ve anomalies over the pole are not low enough so we see periods of ridging in the jet stream without true blocking at high enough latitudes. 

What we are getting are some transient rather cold shots with a spit Atlantic flow.Currently the models want to retain some mobility in the pattern looking into week 2 as the high fades away and the flow backs into the west. 

today.gif

At least we will see some quieter and drier weather in the coming days under the high with some frosts where skies are clear enough indeed some quite sharp frosts look possible over Scotland on some nights.

 

 

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