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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Notice that shortwave slipping under the Atlantic ridge days 7-8 and merging with the disrupting trough with disastrous results... seems like a wildcard solution to me. Also it never ceases to amaze me how much GFS tends to getcarried away once the westerlies break through.

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I spoke too soon, the 18z has a balmy southwesterly too. :whistling:

ukmaxtemp (1).png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

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I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average.  I think the Russian high will play a big part in this.

image.png

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8 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average.  I think the Russian high will play a big part in this.

image.png

Go against anything being forecast currently

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12 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average.  I think the Russian high will play a big part in this.

image.png

Please tell me this is a joke hahaha 

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As I said best not get hung up on every run, I'm expecting wild swings from some models in the medium-longer range output in the coming days, GFS 18z this evening a case in point, and it is the worst culprit for this. Best to just glance at one set of models at the same timeframe, I usually look at the 12z ones, but more importantly look at the trends in the overall mean ensembles.

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5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Go against anything being forecast currently

Not entirely - WSI expect a back-loaded winter, apparently.  Oh, and, for those saying the 18z is the Pub Run and can be ignored, I'm sure I read recently that there's no difference in the data used.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Please tell me this is a joke hahaha 

I wouldn't go as far as to say there is every chance of a warm December based on a Gfs 18z pub run but it can't be ruled out:D

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4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Not entirely - WSI expect a back-loaded winter, apparently.  Oh, and, for those saying the 18z is the Pub Run and can be ignored, I'm sure I read recently that there's no difference in the data used.

WSI lol

They change like the weather literally , I would take those with a pinch of salt, even though they have just forecast a cold Jan and Feb for the UK

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18 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average.  I think the Russian high will play a big part in this.

image.png

so lets ignore all the other model runs... all the background drivers/signals... the info from inside the met office.. possible SSW etc etc etc and wipe out the entire month of December via a  D10 chart.... dated 01/12/2016....

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7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

so lets ignore all the other model runs... all the background drivers/signals... the info from inside the met office.. possible SSW etc etc etc and wipe out the entire month of December via a  D10 chart.... dated 01/12/2016....

Agreed, this is what happens when every run is treated as gospel, the best place to look for answers is the GEFS / Ecm mean and the last time I checked, it's looking cold in early December.

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, More Snow said:

so lets ignore all the other model runs... all the background drivers/signals... the info from inside the met office.. possible SSW etc etc etc and wipe out the entire month of December via a  D10 chart.... dated 01/12/2016....

Yet, you cannot discount it either. Look, I love snow and cold 1982 1983 2009 and 2010 always remembered for their frigid wonderful weather. I had great fun as a kid and with my kids... That said, this is as viable an option as the previous runs, because it is shown. Just because it's not what you want to see, doesn't mean it's not correct.

That said, I do think we will see widespread Arctic conditions soon. Your post however needs reviewing! Jumping on every run as the gospel here is quite comical, especially at such FI distances!

Good night, too late for me to be up anyway!

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23 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average.  I think the Russian high will play a big part in this.

image.png

I think it's finely balanced now. There's a bit more mobility coming in to play and in all honesty, if the blocks do not form favourably for cold, there is potential for a mild train to develop at least a period at the beginning of the month.

Such a pattern is only one option though. - whilst heights are high towards Canada, or a Scandi High is possible, a cold month remains on the table too. 

I think we're close to 50/50 between the two paths. Actually, hate say it, but maybe 60/40 on the mild side of anything - ensembles don't suggest a long term freeze to me. But they could wrong!

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Past T+144 hrs GFS... as we know has  a different run every 6 hours.

Last Thursday the 12z looked quite stunning for cold lovers.

Then the 18z came and gave us bikini bottoms on Brighton beach...

GFS has had a trend to give us a Greenland HP.  

But wants to give us what seems a weak LP  to go with it and next to it

 and then to go on to develop the LP .... there has been a trend to diminish rising HP over Greenland by GFS

But seems reasonably <<< consistent to T+120hrs/144hr...

Even though tonight's  18z GFS is not what some people wanted to see. It's the same feeling I get when I see a man's hairy cleavage .yuk. lol

 

 

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Oh this thread does tickle me more wild swings than Alton towers folks please be advised even the experts can't get the weather right 72 hours in adavance so don't get hung up on computer based models 

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6 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Oh this thread does tickle me more wild swings than Alton towers folks please be advised even the experts can't get the weather right 72 hours in adavance so don't get hung up on computer based models 

I take the models with a pinch of North sea salt.... the GFS in winter reminds me of a girlfriend I once had after she'd had 8 pints of Stella. 

On a serious note it's was suggested earlier that their was consistency on all models to T+132/144hr ...

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Note the southerly warmth on the GFS op in fi. Whilst I doubt it has any relevance on this run, some of the best cold spells are preceded by a plume headed north which ends up building a block to our north 

 It's one of the precursors I always look out for (along with the all essential lower heights settling in below us).

Some of the best cold spells started with a WAA shot Northwards through our locale, resulting in mild Southerlies for the UK before the cold set up in. Jan 47 springs to mind. Often, the more vertical the shot the better. And... with an Arctic high lingering, it shouldn't be ruled out as we head through December. There is no doubt the ingredients are there. Just need a pinch of luck.

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I have to say it's great to be back this Winter,  sorry Autumn where were you. Just to share my thoughts on the flip flopping models atm. I really do think the models will struggle on picking up FI cold this Winter, but expect lots of It. The reason being this year has been so unusual since we had the impressive Scandi high in January which threw so much warmth into the arctic and has pretty much taken a retreat there. 

In the East of the UK, since the event there has been a well extended Spring up until start of July and even through the Summer some of the stalwart MODders were saying "if this was Winter,  NW servers would be in meltdown" again through the persistent Easterlies.

Even over the last few months,  I don't see much change up above with the split PV, like hot air trapped in a water balloon causing a southerly jet, but what effect this is having around the NH I can only assume is the reason we have missed out on a long Summer and Autumn seems to have been skipped this year. Oh and 4 days of falling snow since Halloween, nearly forgot as seems like weekly occurrence ATM. 

Ever hoping I put my white Christmas bet on in August, 7/1 for Newcastle, and took out my radar subscription for the big day and hope the Winter continues the theme of easterlies and can't wait to be glued to the pink speckles.

Edited by geordiekev
Typo

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Whilst at this stage, the scandi high may not have that much of a role to play in our weather, I really would not rule it out at this stage, as January Snowstorm says, easterlies tend to happen more when they come into play fairly unexpectedly in the medium range rather than the longer range. I still say the Scandi high is likely to sink at this range giving us potentially a chilly SE'ly but I'm certainly not going to discount it having more of an influence because there is still time for the output to change.

Still no real sign of any snowy set ups developing but the output is certainly interesting and one that could develop into something, of course it can go the other way but at this stage the signs are encouraging and more encourage than this time last year.

I also think people's of last winter is highly skewed by the very mild December, one thing we must remember January 2016 did produce blocking and a negative AO and whilst there was some cold and snow(even snowed in Morecambe!), it was in fairly short supply and the blocking just never really sat favourably for the UK to benefit. Hopefully it will be different this time.

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Surely between 140hrs and 240hrs the high pressure would stand up against the low a bit more than shown on the 00z.  it seems to shunt it East a bit easy. it moves about 1500 miles in two days lol 

Edited by marksiwnc

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Cold incoming into Europe on the 00z and creeping into the reliable at t144. Come on ECM. T168 and -12 850hpa into Central Europe. This run is a cracker.

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

Edited by Seasonality

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Morning campers so today and next couple

The filling low will track NE with the rain belt and should clear Scotland and the NE late morning. In it's wake the rest of Britain, and later the aforementioned regions, will be mainly cloudy with showers, heavy in places and quite windy, particularly around the some coasts. temps around average but feeling less so in the wind.

1hourprecip_d02_22.pngtemperature_d02_22.pngsfcgustmax_d02_23.png

 

From here I think we all know the process and by 18z Thursday we have the upper low to the SSW over Iberia and the Azores HP ridging into Scotland.

1hourprecip_d02_25.png

From here the familiar upstream forcing in the form of the vigorous upper low tracking NE from the eastern seaboard gets underway and by 12z Sunday we have this position with mid Atlantic trough taking shape

gfs_z500a_natl_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.png

From here it gets slightly complicated as the trough deconstructs, phases in with the Iberian low and moves east forcing the high pressure SE into Denmark. Simultaneously the trough is still being fed by energy emanating from N. Canada which is also connecting to the cold trough to our east. The upshot of all this is that by Thursday of next week we find a long unstable area of low pressure running N/S from Iceland to Iberia just to the west of the UK.

gfs_z500a_natl_38.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_37.png

So a quick summation. After we get rid of the current rubbish we get the HP/LP N/S split with a fairly benign easterly component with perhaps just showery outbreaks impacting the south. After the weekend the wind will begin to veer southerly as the HP slips SE and the trough approaches from the west. Temps will be around average but the will be some big latitudinal and diurnal variations.

Edited by knocker

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The ECM's just gone and made a dog's dinner of it.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM's just gone and made a dog's dinner of it.

Looks more in line with last two para ops which will be the op in twelve hours! (The last para op was pretty frigid due to slack continental flow )

 

looking at the means/anomolys on the para and op ec 46 says to me that any 'snowy' potential is pushed back till mid dec and beyond. prior to that looks quite anticyclonic so we could well be quite surface cold at times. 

Edited by bluearmy

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks more in line with last two para ops which will be the op in twelve hours!

looking at the means/anomolys on the para and op ec 46 says to me that any 'snowy' potential is pushed back till mid dec and beyond. prior to that looks quite anticyclonic so we could well be quite surface cold at times. 

Just what I feared, with Mid latt highs though, as long as the profile to the N doesn't get too low, you only need a slight shift of the pattern to get back in the game.

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