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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This evenings outputs are the first to drop that low south from Greenland and disrupt it to the west of the UK so it could be that the lower resolution ensembles are slow to pick up on this.

We often see this when the ops take a different route, we should know in the morning whether this is one dodgy op run followed by a backtrack or whether they're on to something. Given a choice I'd rather the ECM trend verified, that at least has a chance of delivering some cold conditions within T240hrs and a chance of some snow. I'd like to see a full swing to a Scandi high and take my chances with that rather than hoping a lot more has to go right down the line.

 

The 12z fim creeping out and in line with the gfs12z op at day 8

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z fim creeping out and in line with the gfs12z op at day 8

The trough to the west of Iceland looks a bit further West to me.

fimnh-0-192_gmh6.png

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z fim creeping out and in line with the gfs12z op at day 8

Whats the 12z fim? Do you mean the new ECM version? Oh just seen Febs post.

Edited by nick sussex

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whats the 12z fim? Do you mean the new ECM version? Oh just seen Febs post.

Where has this FIM come from? Not heard of that model before. Any good? 

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where has this FIM come from? Not heard of that model before. Any good? 

It is an experimental American model. Not sure if any verification stats available.

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Better height rises on 18z at +134 hours?

 

GFSOPEU12_138_1.png

GFSOPEU18_135_1.png

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It's brilliant when it shows cold 

But seriously, it's stats are broadly comparable to GFS afaik

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Great update expect some mega cold op runs very soon then :)

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Similar evolution so far on GFS 18z out to Nov 28th

 

GFSOPEU18_171_1.png

GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

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Just now, fergieweather said:

To skimp on the frame-by-frame detail and varied complexities anticipated into early Dec, tonight's EC Monthly ultimately heads in much the same direction as it's predecessor, with +ve GPH anomalies to north and +ve MSLP anomaly to our NW (Iceland) by mid-Dec (run ends 18th). Steady as she goes... etc.

Thanks very much - great update, just a really quick one, does that mean the +ve anom's (specifically GPH) have shifted slightly East and now perhaps a E'ly or at least more of a E'ly component to any N'ly is more on the cards as opposed to a direct N'ly?

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3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

To skimp on the frame-by-frame detail and varied complexities anticipated into early Dec, tonight's EC Monthly ultimately heads in much the same direction as it's predecessor, with +ve GPH anomalies to north and +ve MSLP anomaly to our NW (Iceland) by mid-Dec (run ends 18th). Steady as she goes... etc.

Nice update, lets hope this afternoons FI type weather becomes reality, then is sustained. Big ask but more chance than the last few years of it verifying !! 

 

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GFS so far zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

Give me the ECM solution anyday, this takes the cold air too far east with no way of advecting that back west and has the shortwave south of Greenland sitting there with its sombrero on and in no mood to go anyway. The energy not disrupting se but south! I'm bored already.

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

GFS so far zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

Give me the ECM solution anyday, this takes the cold air too far east with no way of advecting that back west and has the shortwave south of Greenland sitting there with its sombrero on and in no mood to go anyway. The energy not disrupting se but south! I'm bored already.

Yes, I didn't mind the 12z GFS final result but I'm not sure we will even make the same end result on this run, the GFS 12z run was fraught with danger and spoiler hazards anyway.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Note the southerly warmth on the GFS op in fi. Whilst I doubt it has any relevance on this run, some of the best cold spells are preceded by a plume headed north which ends up building a block to our north 

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I didn't mind the 12z GFS final result but I'm not sure we will even make the same end result on this run, the GFS 12z run was fraught with danger and spoiler hazards anyway.

Yes  the issue here is the trough disruption, this needs to go se not south. The ECM at least had some possible interest within T240hrs. By the time the GFS delivers anything I'll be pushing my zimmer frame around and be getting my free bus pass. At T222hrs it hits the buffers completely, ghastly. On to tomorrow, hopefully the ECM is on the right tracks.

Edited by nick sussex

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North Africa origin air isn't a preceder to cold I'm aware of, :bad: come back in may!

IMG_3731.PNG

Posted before I saw your post ba, everydays a school day then ha ha

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

North Africa origin air isn't a preceder to cold I'm aware of, :bad: come back in may!

IMG_3731.PNG

It has been on many occasion when aligned S-N rather than SW-NE. It pumps warm air into the higher latitudes and displaces cold elsewhere, often building heights as it does so.

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

North Africa origin air isn't a preceder to cold I'm aware of, :bad: come back in may!

IMG_3731.PNG

It can be, it pumps warm air up into the polar regions and wave breaking occurs into the stratosphere, March can be a classic eg where 18c max's can turn into Max's just above freezing in about 48 hours.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It has been on many occasion when aligned S-N rather than SW-NE. It pumps warm air into the higher latitudes and displaces cold elsewhere, often building heights as it does so.

Yes I get that, but African air isn't something I would associate with cold was more where I was coming from

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wow I just got schooled! :sorry:

I gave you a clue mate but no doubt you were writing your post at the time! 

Anyway, the FIM ended west based and the current op can be consigned to the proverbial

Edited by bluearmy

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lets forget about the GFS 18hrs run horror show and not let it deflate the mood in here. Everything that can go wrong does and the GFS is useless with anything that involves high pressure near Scandi.

 

Agreed, last night's 18z had a blow torch southwesterly and tonight's is more southerly, hopefully tomorrow it will be more SEly / Ely!..I think it's great that a positive spin can be put on charts like this..doesn't look that mild :D

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

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Theme from the models is to send the core of the weak PV towards Siberia - this is an important development as it enables strong heights to build in over NE Canada and Greenland - its been a persistant theme from the long range models.

Always best to focus on general trends and patterns over the northern hemisphere at this time of year, rather than  model run to run, which can be prone to wild swings in the medium trameframe. What is very notable though is the continued suggestion of a highly amplified flow, with high pressure inching out low pressure very markedly and no real westerly impetus.

I'd refrain from getting too hung up on every model run, and as I say keep an eye on the pressure pattern over the north pole regions. I feel this week could be a very frustrating one for those who latch onto every run, only to see the next one throw in a oddity in the medium-longer term.

A very plausible evolution is that we will start December with trough disruption to our west but not before we pull in a very short milder flow from the south to end the month - this in turn having a WAA affect, the trough will then sink SE into Bay of Biscay leaving us exposed to a concerted invasion of cold uppers from anyway between a NW-E quarter, aided by the split jet, which is the trigger to a proper colder evolution (northern arm aiding scandi trough formation, and theerafter energy going into the southern arm, opening an easy channel for heights to retrogress NW..

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