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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't know why so many are only mentioning the ecm day 10 chart. Things look much better on that run well before day 10 :)

Agreed but T+240 is the best chart of the sequence although days 11, 12 and 13 would have been even better!:santa-emoji:

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6 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely. Scandi high in 6 days anyone? :)

Doesn't look so outlandish now :)

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2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

In the interests of balance, this morning's 1 month run was abysmal: it would give Dec 15 a run for its money. :nonono:

Good agreement from the big 3 ops up to T144, then all a bit knife-edge.   

 

I can't look past T144 atm....but yes its about time the big 3 all look the bloody same for once.

But 'Oh my' the ECM does look rather.....Model watching in the next 24 to 48 hrs will be very interesting indeed :yahoo:

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If we can get the high further north and west between T120 and T144hrs with the Greenland low further west then as the topple occurs the cold air will be more favourably aligned to the e/ne to head west.

If we get some favourable trough disruption with that low this could feed those low heights in the northern Med. Personally I'd prefer the outputs to go full on the Scandi high because the foundations for that are in the more reliable timeframe. And from there we could get retrogression and a northerly, there sorted! Not asking for much!

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Also dont forget about the JMA its loaded with potential WAA pumping right into Greenland & Labrador area.:D

JN192-21.gif

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Very good 12z suite.

The ECM scenario would be interesting going forward, most notably for some mid-term snow opportunities and certainly for keeping the Atlantic at bay for the foreseeable.

I do wonder though if an ECM mini-Easterly would/could end up undermining the potential early December Northerly blast.

On the flip side... I also wonder if this Easterly has more legs to it and over the coming days we are going see it develop into something more tastier. I really don't think it would take too much more trough disruption upstream for things to get very interesting, relatively quickly.

Edited by s4lancia

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Great afternoon /evening so far for coldies - hopefully the ECM ENS look good along with the 46 dayer, taking us past Xmas. 

Quite a few different scenarios at 240 but they all seem to lead to a colder outlook for now. 

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Amazing how in space of 12 hours how the mood has changed in this Forum:).However,i would like to see the last ECM/GFS become trends before i get carried away. With the ECM showing potential from the East always brings me back to a few years ago when it went the shape of the Pear!!Maybe safer route for UK cold would be GFS route if it happens but then again it is the UK we are talking about so nothing runs smoothly for us does it.Very interesting Model watching though and just hope the Cold theme becomes a firmer trend in next 24/48hrs earlier

P.S. My post earlier today wasn"t meant to be negative re Cold and snow but having been an avid Forum Member for 5 years now i just feel a sense of realism needs to come in now again. I would like nothing more than a Full scale UK blizzard in early December just for the record:cold::D 

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Re the easterly.......history tells us the best ones come into view suddenly almost always within the 5 day range.

It's bitter here today in a gale force northeasterly. Whatever happens we've surpassed last winter already and (pinches himself) we are still in autumn!!

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It's always nice when you log on after work and see the page count has markedly increased on the mod thread!  And for good reason too, a very encouraging set of 12z's after yesterday's moribund runs.  I really like the ECM at 240:

ECH0-240.gifECH1-240.gif

We are primed for attack from either the north or east, with cold uppers available from either direction.  There is so much potential from this set up it's difficult to know where to look!  As per S4Lancia's post above, this could evolve quickly into something quite special.  It could also be completely gone in 12 hours time.  Oh the highs and lows of model watching.

Edited by Ice Day

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These were the De Bilt ECM ensembles from 00hrs so we can compare them with the 12hrs when they come out and for a bit of fun the snow ones. With any possible Scandi highs De Bilt is great for giving us an idea of the chances:

ecm.pngecm00s.png

 

 

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The ecm this evening follows the gfs script until T168 with the negatively tilted trough in mid Atlantic and the HP slipping down to southern Norway but thereafter things get a little messy. The energy flying east over Greenland phases with the trough to the east and more importantly the Atlantic trough connects to the Iberian low which in turn phases with the European trough.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_9.png

This effectively cuts off the weakening high pressure and traps some colder air in the eastern Atlantic but the evolution is so messy so await the ens for a bit of clarity.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.pngecmwf_t850a_natl_41.png

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11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

p.s Remember a few days ago when I mused over the possibility of a Scandi High in the 9-10 day range but the EPS showed little or no support? Goes to show, even they can't necessarily be trusted to spot a highly anomalous feature in that area.

It's potentially quite a transient feature if it gets shoved se but that depends on upstream forcing.  Just loving the Arctic high at day 10 on the ECM - of all the features likely to be poorly modelled at 10 days range .......

there really is a very wide envelope post day 7.

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All we need now is for the ooz to

show consistency and its :drunk-emoji: I must say you can't  be excited from the lastest  runs!of course you can:cold:

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GFS chart at today's 12z at T+120hrs.

Then chart below taken from January 1963.

couldn't help notice similarities. 

From Wednesday I expect the roads to be covered in grit .

Looking forward to the high pressure setting in midweek .

Looking towards T+144/204. Northerly or Easterly will do....

In order to get there we may have to put up with a  brief cool S Easterly possibly. 

16112612_2112.gif

images-3.jpg

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Fantastic 12z all round, look forward to seeing where the ECM sits in the ensembles later. 

This certainly would be a timely moment for Ian to drop in and give us a heads up on whether this scandi high has any support from a Met O point of view. :whistling:

 

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's potentially quite a transient feature if it gets shoved se but that depends on upstream forcing.  Just loving the Arctic high at day 10 on the ECM - of all the features likely to be poorly modelled at 10 days range .......

there really is a very wide envelope post day 7.

True, I've been a little presumptuous regarding amy undercut to at least slow down the sinking process.

Funny how a faster sink could let a an import from the north in sooner, but also places us a lot more at risk of missing out on more than a whiff of cold if the import from the north failed.

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