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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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49 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

NAEFS should be quite bullish on the sharpening Euro trough week 2, as the GEM ensembles (as were the 00z) quite a bit keener on persisting +ve heights further east over Greenland.

Continued painful slow evolution in the convective wave over the Indian Ocean, but 12z outputs seem to be latching onto it judging by the appearance of a well defined North Pacific ridge. Just also a whiff from the GEFS of twin vortex development either side of the pole with a ridge between, encouraging the Pacific ridge poleward. Effectively mimicking a split vortex.

Encouraging I admit GP (And great to see you back by the way) however a split PV just for those who think all routes lead to cold we need a load of luck as it doesn't mean cold and snowy weather for us. 

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Dear Mods I've been trying to post a PPN chart from GFS. It says please contact us ie. Netweather. Sorry to post here I'm fairly new to this site and never seen this message before.

Sorry guys to interrupt the thread.

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I picked some juicy cherries from the GEFS 12z tree, the mean trends colder and there are some cracking perturbations showing very cold potential for the early December period.:D

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Just now, Banbury said:

ECH1-216.GIF?21-0

240 could well see us on the verge of a Northerly

Borderline how this plays out at day 10...could do with a smidgen more WAA a day or so before to really put a wedge between that Canadian troughing and the lower heights east of Greenland. However it plays out, there is more potential there at day 9 than there was on the 0z run so I'll take that positive and say 'thank you very much'.

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2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Dear Mods I've been trying to post a PPN chart from GFS. It says please contact us ie. Netweather. Sorry to post here I'm fairly new to this site and never seen this message before.

Sorry guys to interrupt the thread.

Works for me

prectypeuktopo.png

 

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Thought I'd post this

i can't buy you all a pint so I'll give you this ..deepest FI but just to give us all a well deserved grin.

Look how many cold low pressure systems dotted about and alot of Europe covered.. has the French ski resorts ever been closed because of heavy snow. ;-)

16120712_2112-2.gif

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 216 produces an unlikely wintry event for the SW ( from the East ) as it drops the uppers to -6c, we are now entering the time where the continental cold can be on a par with the Northerly cold -

 

At 240 the NH profile looks good & a VERY high potential for snow over the UK for the opening day of winter...

 

S

 

Have you also noticed that pool of -12c uppers heading straight for Bexley Heath as well!!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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ECH101-216.GIF?21-0gfsnh-12-216.png?12

Best anomaly charts at 216+ ive seen in a long time from the GFS and ECM, if it's still there tommorow I'd say we may well be facing a decent cold spell

Edited by Zakos
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Much better looking Ecm 12z compared to last night, especially the day 10 chart, it ticks the right boxes.:cold:

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Edited by Frosty.
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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All that cold air to our east a case of so close yet so far

ECM0-168.GIF?21-0ECM0-192.GIF?21-0ECM0-216.GIF?21-0

ECM1-168.GIF?21-0ECM1-192.GIF?21-0ECM1-216.GIF?21-0

All that cold air to our east a case of so close yet so far

ECM0-168.GIF?21-0ECM0-192.GIF?21-0ECM0-216.GIF?21-0

ECM1-168.GIF?21-0ECM1-192.GIF?21-0ECM1-216.GIF?21-0

Agreed regarding the uppers but the ECM has loads of surface cold with the continental flow.

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I bet the ECM day 8-10 debilt T2ms are around Freezing tonight !

A bit of moderation would be ~ +4c ish for England

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What do we want northerly or easterly? Great to see that mild weather removed from mainland Europe and this evenings outputs have given us some possibilities.

Where we end up though is very uncertain because its complicated. The models want to take the main PV towards Siberia and this does put pressure on the high near Scandi.

Theres even chances for some snow within T240hrs if shortwave energy heads se and meets up with that colder continental air.

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So many interesting charts tonight - don't forget this time yesterday for many winter was all ready over!

Interesting that GFS favours a Greenland block and ECM more of an easterly flow.

I think yesterday I mentioned the model are struggling big time at the moment but one thing I will say im confident that some cold charts will appear relatively quickly and not so much in FI. With so many situations that the models aren't really programmed to factor in like SSW, Solar and SST that are changing frequently sooner rather than later we will see something v interesting!

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58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The CFS has trended back very cold and snowy again (18z run 20th November), it has bitterly cold weather with some snow up until last week of December, very brief Atlantic, then bitterly cold Easterlies resume for Jan, with some huge pastings from battleground events on route to the final breakdown.

In the interests of balance, this morning's 1 month run was abysmal: it would give Dec 15 a run for its money. :nonono:

Good agreement from the big 3 ops up to T144, then all a bit knife-edge.   

 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 So many things to like about ECM day 10 apart from the fact that it's ten days away! 

Don't know why so many are only mentioning the ecm day 10 chart. Things look much better on that run well before day 10 :)

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