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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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If the Nina does indeed warm out then I don't see why winter could not just carry on in the same vein as it starts.  

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The control makes it....

gensnh-0-1-216.png

Slowly getting there

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Just now, CreweCold said:

The control makes it....

gensnh-0-1-216.png

So do loads of em!

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It certainly is 'the thrill of the chase' fellow 'Wakey' person..!!!...but what gets me is that year after year the computers generate such teasing charts....and they all fall flat on their face 99 times out of a 100...so why even bother having charts generated for so far out!!....:D...we should limit them to 7 days out at the very most !!:D:D:D

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I think the GFS could be improved if there was more trough disruption sending energy more se rather than south between T192hrs and T240hrs. You'd want that energy heading in towards Germany and this would mean that the colder air will head south more quickly and gives more margin for error given the western negative NAO.

In terms of the evolution very good agreement upstream between the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs and NCEP expect that central USA troughing to verify. If you look at those two upstream lows these phase and the negative tilt helps WAA develop high pressure over west Greenland. I think the issue at present is how the GFS pulls down that low near Greenland, this happens because of a quick height rise to the north which forces this south.

I think we best wait to the ECM before putting too much weight on the GFS solution, it could be that the ECM finds a different route to something colder with hopefully a higher margin for error.

 

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Not much significant to add to previous coments today on the GFS evolution in the ten day time frame.

Still looking at energy  shooting NE from the eastern seaboard and simultaneously phasing in with the trough to the north and, more importantly, our cut off upper low over Iberia. Thus by T162 we have a negatively tilted trough developing in mid Atlantic forcing the Azores HP to amplify NW into Canada.

gfs_z500a_natl_28.png

From here the trough intensifies and moves east forcing the HP south east over Denmark. From here it's best left.

gfs_z500a_natl_36.png

So to summarize the weather in very general terms. From Wednesday onwards it's essentially an HP/LP N/S split over the UK with a fairly light easterly wind componant so fairly dry wih perhaps some showery stuff in the south From around next Monday the high pressure will slide SE thus veering the surface flow and the frontal systems will be edging in from the west associated with the trough bring some more unsettled weather. Temps generally will be about average or just below but there could well be some quite large latitudinal and diurnal variations.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_35.png

 

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, K9 said:

 

It certainly is 'the thrill of the chase' fellow 'Wakey' person..!!!...but what gets me is that year after year the computers generate such teasing charts....and they all fall flat on their face 99 times out of a 100...so why even bother having charts generated for so far out!!....:D...we should limit them to 7 days out at the very most !!:D:D:D

Hi K9

With the more encouraging background signals which were woefully lacking at the same point last year, these low res charts showing wintry weather have more chance of being on the right track, I can't recall similar low res charts a year ago, they were screaming mild zonality for the most part.

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Sensible discussion please here-on-in, Thanks.

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The mean and anomoly looks a damn sight better than trawling through the individual members.  Is this an occasion where the mean will prove more informative than the clusters? 

The anomoly broadly in line with the extended eps. waiting to see if these continue to trend more Atlantic end week 2. The 46 dayer due out later and tomorrows ECM  12z is the new cycle of the model (and I assume the eps will be also). 

The 00z para was a roadcrash for coldies who aren't interested in mid lat highs sinking south. 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

The mean and anomoly looks a damn sight better than trawling through the individual members.  Is this an occasion where the mean will prove more informative than the clusters? 

The anomoly broadly in line with the extended eps. waiting to see if these continue to trend more Atlantic end week 2. The 46 dayer due out later and tomorrows ECM  12z is the new cycle of the model (and I assume the eps will be also). 

The 00z para was a roadcrash for coldies who aren't interested in mid lat highs sinking south. 

That's the problem for me now, once you see the Atlantic trending stronger in FI ensembles, it usually is a sign, for me its a sign we are running out of time (not overall winter) but just this window of opportunity before the inevitable period of VI.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the problem for me now, once you see the Atlantic trending stronger in FI ensembles, it usually is a sign, for me its a sign we are running out of time (not overall winter) but just this window of opportunity before the inevitable period of VI.

Yeah, funny how models are so good at predicting zonality via an Atlantic onslaught. Can count down to it like clockwork most times.

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Not much difference At h144 ECM / UKMO

UE144-21_gko0.GIFECE1-144_qyz9.GIF

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Not much difference At h144 GFS / UKMO

UE144-21_gko0.GIFECE1-144_qyz9.GIF

ECH1-144_ejh5.GIFNor the ECM

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Ecm 12 @144.

And tyre track warmth at the pole begind to highlight shallow split vortex....

ECH101-144.gif

ECH1-144-2.gif

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Are we finally starting to get some consensus between the Big 3 at 144h?!

Not a bad consensus either if cold weather is your thing!

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Ecm raising an eyebrow @ 168 hrs,a phantom easterly @ 192?,some cold uppers flooding into western Europe.

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