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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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And closer..

h850t850eu (1).png

h850t850eu (2).png

h850t850eu (3).png

prectypeuktopo.png

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Beautiful chart at +300 hours...

 

IMG_0941.PNG

Edited by Kieran

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h500slp.png

Best chart ive seen in the reliable (sort of) timeframe, only 180 hours out and it strongly hints towards retrogression.

gfsnh-12-288.png?12gfsnh-12-300.png?6

Divergence in the output beyond day 10 is ridiculous.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Beautiful chart at +300 hours...

 

IMG_0941.PNG

That chart is a belter hope we are on the right track now. SNOW FOR ALL

Edited by booferking

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Good consistency between GFS outputs! lol Whats going on! After some very underwhelming morning outputs the GFS pulls back from the mediocre precipice and goes onto a different solution.

The UKMO at T144hrs is similar upstream but whether it would go onto develop the same later evolution is hard to say. It's quite an unusual evolution from the GFS.

 

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2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

h500slp.png

Best chart ive seen in the reliable (sort of) timeframe, only 180 hours out and it strongly hints towards retrogression.

gfsnh-12-288.png?12gfsnh-12-300.png?6

Divergence in the output beyond day 10 is ridiculous.

 

Divergence will be stark in this pattern because you either get sufficient WAA and a stronger block that sustains or you don't. It's as simple as that. Knife edge stuff but the direction of travel today has been good with that low exiting stateside being held back more and more each run.

Edited by CreweCold

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heavy snow steadily moving down the country.

gfsnh-0-300_aum5.png

Miles away but worth the comment , get it to 24h and we can discuss the kinks in the isobars

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I think the difference was the slight trough disruption at around 144 on the GFS, UKMO has it slightly earlier with more of an undercut, hence the heights are further north.

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Looking good chaps:D

h850t850eu (4).png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

ukmintemp.png

h850t850eu (5).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Divergence will be stark in this pattern because you either get sufficient WAA and a stronger block that sustains or you don't. It's as simple as that. Knife edge stuff but the direction of travel today has been good with that low exiting stateside being held back more on more each run.

yes agreed, it all rests on this WAA event , otherwise back to square one it seems.

and yes it's definitely been good viewing today, nice to see these lovely charts creeping closer to the reliable rather than the opposite for a change! 

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Looking good chaps:D

h850t850eu (4).png

It would be great if the ECM followed this solution, unfortunately still along way out but atleast it's cheered up the forum again.  

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It would be great if the ECM followed this solution, unfortunately still along way out but atleast it's cheered up the forum again.  

Agreed, now that was an exciting low res on the Gfs 12z, I would take that in early December.:)

h850t850eu (3).png

ukmintemp.png

h850t850eu (6).png

Edited by Frosty.

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All good stuff...but so far out into fantasy land it's not even worth getting myself worked up about...and this is from a die hard 'Coldie'...!!!....why do we do this to ourselves !!!:D:sorry::cold:

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4 minutes ago, K9 said:

why do we do this to ourselves !!!:D:sorry::cold:

The thrill of the chase, it's a long way out but the seasonal long range models must be looking good, judging by the latest MO update. I expect we will be seeing plenty of runs like that, slowly creeping closer range.

Edited by Frosty.

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5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS control going the other way.

Hmmmm bit early yet Warren, could still get a decent block at Greenland

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20 minutes ago, Tamara said:

This longer term scenario is not currently supported in terms of the late autumn expressed consensus front loading to the winter by seasonal modelling authorities, but to my mind the uncertainties of the coming weeks as described here (and mooted from previous harboured) suspicions) have only grown further as we have been heading through this month

I don't mind admitting that I lack the technical understanding to follow the details of your post, Tamara, but the above quote suggests that you, like the WSI in their latest winter forecast (see https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions), doubt that the forecast of a front-loaded winter is necessarily going to verify?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The mean is now on board with the extra WAA at day 8..

gensnh-21-1-192.png

Also digs the LP to S of Greenland further SE.

Encouraging at least- there will be some decent perturbations in this lot.

Absolutely, good news Crewe- im positively exhausted already its only mid November ! ;D

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The mean is now on board with the extra WAA at day 8..

gensnh-21-1-192.png

Also digs the LP to S of Greenland further SE.

Encouraging at least.

Yes, theres going to be some belters in there.

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