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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, igloo said:

the low of the coast of greenland looks further west at 144h on shallower than the last run can we possibly get a scandi HP are we starting to backtrack?

 

gfs-0-144.png

Surely the jets looking good for this.

gfs-5-174.png

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6 minutes ago, igloo said:

the low of the coast of greenland looks further west at 144h and shallower than the last run can we possibly get a scandi HP are we starting to backtrack?

 

gfs-0-144.png

Not sure on the Scandy high as that is sliding away SE, however better heights to the West of Greenland may assist further down the line also slightly weaker PV over Greenland itself.

It is the Low over the Great lakes at 190 that comes and spoils the party by powering through any Atlantic WAA, unfortunately that is still there so may do the same but have to admit it looks much weaker in that area.  Maybe an improvement here.

Edited by Ali1977

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Surely SURELY that developing high pressure west of Greenland has a chance of gaining a sufficient foothold on this run as LP backs off even further than on earlier runs (which were an improvement each time)

h500slp.png

If it can't gain a foothold from there it's time to pack this weather malarky in

Edited by CreweCold

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That arm of low pressure looks to be propping up the high pressure, stopping it from sinking. 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

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1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

That arm of low pressure looks to be propping up the high pressure, stopping it from sinking. 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Which high pressure are you referring to? Surely we don't want the HP in the North Sea to sink? That would be indicative of the jet then riding over the top?

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It would be nice if the low under Greenland could drop allowing heights in Scandy to link through Greenland - then a Easterly set up is poss.  Different looking run this, interesting to see how it finishes.

 

The low is sliding south towards Spain I think, good news.  And, there is some V cold air not to far to our North which may head our way if we're lucky (in theory).  

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Which high pressure are you referring to? Surely we don't want the HP in the North Sea to sink? That would be indicative of the jet then riding over the top?

That's what I mean, the low pressure in the Atlantic is riding underneath the North sea-scandy high, and keeping it from sinking into the near continent. Although as the run is progressing, the high is collapsing anyway. 

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Atlantic looks relatively blocked off chaps (at least northern arm of jet)...we may see the trough descend from the NE this run...perhaps interacting with LP to SW as per Metoffice long ranger?

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

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Much better anomaly to my eye

gfsnh-12-222.png?6gfsnh-12-216.png?12

Retrogression is nearing the reliable timeframe!

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I thought this was an interesting chart taken from the 12z GFS. Shows cold orientation of high pressure to the west and East and a weakening low over Greenland. 

Within realms of expectation too.

16112818_2112.gif

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All this gawping at the GFS means people have missed the almost scandi high on the UKMO 144

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Almost 10 C here today which is extremely mild for the season and looks like the start of december will be on the milder side rather than the cold, it must happen something now before Saint lucy's day if we want a more decent and special winter. GFS still wants the colder air from the north to wait even more days, if this continues i belive that CFSV2 were very wrong about December T2 anomalies

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Can we at least all agree that the runs are changing so much at present, its not worth getting despondent or too excited about what this run shows?

We're still in the game and until several poor consecutive operationals  come along I'm keeping calm!

As for this run...odds on the low just sits over the UK until the end of the run?!

Edited by Johnp

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Here she comes - a paggering from the NE coming up.

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Like comparing chalk with cheese, nice Arctic high! 

image.pngimage.png

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Just now, Changing Skies said:

Like comparing chalk with cheese, nice Arctic high! 

image.pngimage.png

Highlights the differences between getting a good pulse of WAA northwards and not....Getting WAA north is important going forward into December...which is what I tried to point out last week when it was obvious the first attempt was failing.

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Well the 12z is classed as the better model (more data), so hopefully correct.  An Arctic block at 240 leaves many good options on the table.

Its now looking similar to what was showing yesterday on a few runs.

Edited by Ali1977

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Nice, it's getting closer:D..The arctic I mean:cold:

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Almost blowtorch waa into eastern seaboard. .encroaching 80% greenland block.....

12zstates why non worth getting hung up onwards n' upwards. .lads n' lassies!

gfsnh-0-228.png

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Nice, it's getting closer:D

h850t850eu.png

 

Nice to see a high forming to the North of Greenland with WAA heading into that general direction from Alaska too.

Edited by Ali1977

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