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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

BetrouwbaarheidECMWF.pngIn that case I like to add this: somewhere between 7 and 10 days model reliability drops below 50%, at day 10 is 45%, so you have a bigger chance of getting something different than what you are being shown, of course the reliability drops even much further after 10 days

Excellent chart there @ArHu3, a very good visual illustration of model verification. I think the problem is that people tend to overreact to the output and get too emotional, objective and realistic commentary is great and those who post with positivity and excitement make the forum a great place to be but the negative knee jerk type reactions don't make for great reading for many members, myself included.  There is no reason on 21 November for the panic to set in. High SAI, vortex still on the ropes, we're in uncharted territory in many ways.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Excellent chart there @ArHu3, a very good visual illustration of model verification. I think the problem is that people tend to overreact to the output and get too emotional, objective and realistic commentary is great and those who post with positivity and excitement make the forum a great place to be but the negative knee jerk type reactions don't make for great reading for many members, myself included.  There is no reason on 21 November for the panic to set in. High SAI, vortex still on the ropes, we're in uncharted territory in many ways.

 

 

Absolutely. Scandi high in 6 days anyone? :)

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21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And another stonking post - how can winter be over more than a week before it's even started?

IMO, what the models suggest, 3 weeks hence, is a wee bit academic?:D

Its not winter that is over, I don't think a single a person has said winter is over.

But an average winter in the UK doesn't have this much PV disruption or amplification so we have been gifted a window of opportunity to get some cold weather flowing, but how long will this last? It is HIGHLY unlikely to last 3 let alone 2 months so we want to take the chance now before the window passes and who knows how long that window will stay open for.

Basically we want to take the chance ASAP before is slides and the PV returns to normal, lets hope that happens no earlier than new year giving us a solid month or so for plenty of model watching fun and tears. 

Edited by SN0WM4N

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Its not winter that is over, I don't think a single a person has said winter is over.

But an average winter in the UK doesn't have this much PV disruption or amplification so we have been gifted a window of opportunity to get some cold weather flowing, but how long will this last? It is HIGHLY unlikely to last 3 let alone 2 months so we want to take the chance now before the window passes and who knows how long that window will stay open for.

Basically we want to take the chance ASAP before is slides and the PV returns to normal, lets hope that happens no earlier than new year giving us a solid month or so for plenty of model watching fun and tears. 

Could be completely wrong here but, presumably, as much as we're  told that a disrupted PV gives us a good opportunity at seeing cold snowy weather .... We're also told that it doesn't guarantee it. Therefore surely even if it got its act together there's still every chance we can have numerous chances of decent winter weather.

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7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Its not winter that is over, I don't think a single a person has said winter is over.

But an average winter in the UK doesn't have this much PV disruption or amplification so we have been gifted a window of opportunity to get some cold weather flowing, but how long will this last? It is HIGHLY unlikely to last 3 let alone 2 months so we want to take the chance now before the window passes and who knows how long that window will stay open for.

Basically we want to take the chance ASAP before is slides and the PV returns to normal, lets hope that happens no earlier than new year giving us a solid month or so for plenty of model watching fun and tears. 

Not to worry, mate - a month will do me fine!:good:

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22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not to worry, mate - a month will do me fine!:good:

A month is all we need, one decent northerly/easterly and I think many here will be happy, but the continued failed chances is starting to get old which is the main reason many are throwing the toys out of the pram.

Anyway back to the models 6z while the dark purples over the pole worry me the jet is still far from that perfect circle. 

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Current mid to long term trends:

gensbcnh-21-1-384.png  ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

That 990mb low by Iceland is quite an impressive depth at such long range - clear similarities between both charts - so must be better than usual confidence in the D12-D16 evolution.

Based on that, reasonably mild and not too unsettled in the first half of December - but with heights remaining a little low into Europe, a small possibility remains for a colder day or two.

Certainly the NH set-up not as promising for cold as it was in November.

Still, a minor chance of a Scandi High in the D6-D10 range and we all know how they can play games with the big picture!

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The METOs longer range not as good but still looks cold/chilly so seasonal at least.  

By the sounds of it, the signs that originally pointed to a block to the North Qadrant early Winter may be backtracking, we shall see how it goes.  

I'm personally looking forward to sun and possible severe frosts this week, especially as I'm heading into Cumbria.  Freezing fog rubbish for commuters but great for nice cold winters days!!

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The METOs longer range not as good but still looks cold/chilly so seasonal at least.  

By the sounds of it, the signs that originally pointed to a block to the North Qadrant early Winter may be backtracking, we shall see how it goes.  

I'm personally looking forward to sun and possible severe frosts this week, especially as I'm heading into Cumbria.  Freezing fog rubbish for commuters but great for nice cold winters days!!

Eh? Not as good? Doesn't the MetO's forecast (derived from its model) mention the likelihood of frontal-edge snowfall?:D

Come on? When, since 2012, were prognostics better than they are now?:yahoo:

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Was going to say the same thing, if anything the Meto update has improved slightly. Models are clearly all over the place post 144.

I think this is a great sign for things to be very interesting as we approach the beginning of winter.

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1 hour ago, SN0WM4N said:

Its not winter that is over, I don't think a single a person has said winter is over.

But an average winter in the UK doesn't have this much PV disruption or amplification so we have been gifted a window of opportunity to get some cold weather flowing, but how long will this last? It is HIGHLY unlikely to last 3 let alone 2 months so we want to take the chance now before the window passes and who knows how long that window will stay open for.

Basically we want to take the chance ASAP before is slides and the PV returns to normal, lets hope that happens no earlier than new year giving us a solid month or so for plenty of model watching fun and tears. 

That's an excellent point , though the right synoptics now wouldn't deliver the cold it would in 2 or 3 weeks , yes it did in 2010 but we all know how rare that was. My fear is the PV will drop back home mid late December and bang the chance has gone..................of course there is nothing anyone can do , but you sense the frustration. Most certainly Winter hasn't started so still loads to play for but I do sense the clock is ticking.

EDIT......sorry not ticking in the sense Winter is Over but getting the dream set up

Edited by Banbury

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Looking at the NAO and AO updates we have plenty of scatter going into winter but probably still favouring negative

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

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42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Current mid to long term trends:

gensbcnh-21-1-384.png  ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

That 990mb low by Iceland is quite an impressive depth at such long range - clear similarities between both charts - so must be better than usual confidence in the D12-D16 evolution.

Based on that, reasonably mild and not too unsettled in the first half of December - but with heights remaining a little low into Europe, a small possibility remains for a colder day or two.

Certainly the NH set-up not as promising for cold as it was in November.

Still, a minor chance of a Scandi High in the D6-D10 range and we all know how they can play games with the big picture!

Your saying decent confidence in a 288h range onwards mmmmmm  doubtful, surely. Tome will tell of course

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I know the models are hinting at the Scandi high sinking at this range but its definately something to keep an eye on because its still in the medium range and other variables could perhaps turn into our favour so it will be interesting to watch this potentially develop and see just how much it will influence our weather. That low pressure over Southern Greenland is as much of a pain as that Russian high was,

I think people are a bit flat because you hear about all these promising signals etc but the models are not putting the pieces of the jigsaw right for the UK as of yet and the words missed opportunity could come into mind however whilst theres hope, theres hope. It also tells you the same old story though, it does not matter if the background signals are promising, its what the models are saying in the short to medium that counts.

Still skeptical how much frost and fog we will see, there probably be some initially as cooler clearer air topples in but the air does warm quick under the high and winds will increase in southern areas and I do think in general this high could turn into a cloudy one however rainfall will be very minimal. If the Scandi high does collapse we could pick up a SE'ly which may allow some cooler clearer weather to return therefore the frost risk may increase again.

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surely something has to give for the past 3 week there has been no PV over the hudson bay and nothing being forecast for the next 14 days at least this is the only season i have viewed these charts and there has been nothing in that area but it will be only a matter of time before it gets back from its holidays and this opportunity will have been missed sadly

 

ECH1-240.gif

gfsnh-0-240.png

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Lets see how close we get to a scandi high this time GFS 12z rolling out.

Very close to a Arctic high link up.

gfsnh-0-13211.png

Edited by booferking

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20 hours ago, mulzy said:

A post that adds nothing to the topic of "Model Discussion".

Has anyone here mentioned that Winter is over - I can't see it.  This is not about "growing a pair", it's about discussing what the models are showing - after all this is the "Model Discussion" thread.  The models seem to be trending away from a colder scenario in the medium term - that is what the models are showing.  This is what I want to bring to the attention of members.  We take it as read that NWP can be volatile and caveats always apply for anything 7+ days ahead.

You are correct wrong thread I did apologise at the time no worries send me a PM if you want to discuss further 

cheers 

C.S

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Don't be too harsh on those fearing the worst after the Last 3 winters.It does seem that if we're not in solar minimum or the ascending phase ,anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

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1 hour ago, Banbury said:

Your saying decent confidence in a 288h range onwards mmmmmm  doubtful, surely. Tome will tell of course

Higher than usual, not "decent" (I thought carefully about my words!)

Actually, about a week ago I noted more blocking on our side of the hemisphere on the T360 means - that is proving to be correct (unfortunately it's going to be bang over us!) - I really think the long range mean charts can be used when they are consistent and when there is a strong deviation from the norm - which is why I took note of the 990mb Icelandic low at D15 - a seriously strong anomaly.

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Let's see if we can push high northwards with a cold easterly pushing in you never no what's around the corner with the weather..:D

IMG_1189.PNG

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12z looking like an improvement to my eyes.

IMG_0940.PNG

Better chance of WAA advection at 156 hours. Now if only that low around Greenland would just dive southwards...

Edited by Kieran

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the low of the coast of greenland looks further west at 144h and shallower than the last run can we possibly get a scandi HP are we starting to backtrack?

 

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by igloo

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