Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

So the USA gets the cold in FI again, and no doubt that will materialise !! 

IMG_3595.PNG

And no doubt what will materialise from it as the cold spills out into the Atlantic ocean, there have been a lot of hints of it on a lot of GEFS lately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to be honest. After viewing the charts over the weekend and then reading the comments this morning I thought winter prospects were heading for a disaster, not to mention the lack of posting from people like Mr Murr etc but I have to say, to me there is some slight improvement on yesterdays modelling at least. No sign of any dreaded bartlett or euro high as some have mentioned in recent days and its just as likely that a Scandi High could develop.

I think we are in one of those classic periods of model watching where you need to take anything past T120 with the biggest dose of salt you can grasp.

With that said even if FI on this morning models verified it would still feel relatively chilly with no endless mild muck in site and certainly no stubborn highs to our SE / E.

 

ECM1-168.GIF?21-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the charts once again have no trends - we can comment on the charts being produced but no trends in FI to speak off which is positive that means the models have no clue for anything past 240h.

to summarise the waiting game continues............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

So the charts once again have no trends - we can comment on the charts being produced but no trends in FI to speak off which is positive that means the models have no clue for anything past 240h.

to summarise the waiting game continues............

There is one trend and it is around a weeks time the scandi high is getting closer. We just need the low to cut under.

gfs-0-132.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-180.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And no doubt what will materialise from it as the cold spills out into the Atlantic ocean, there have been a lot of hints of it on a lot of GEFS lately.

A strong jet?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, booferking said:

There is one trend and it is around a weeks time the scandi high is getting closer. We just need the low to cut under.

gfs-0-132.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-180.png

I'd like to think that's a possibility but to be honest there is to much energy above to the north which forces the weakish HP to collapse away to the SE pretty quickly...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And no doubt what will materialise from it as the cold spills out into the Atlantic ocean, there have been a lot of hints of it on a lot of GEFS lately.

Yes and you can guess what will happen next. Just look at the tight temp gradient off the east coast, a breeding ground for a strong jet which will inhibit any chances of HP making any northerly progress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

A strong jet?

Certainly a strengthening jet, the strat warming was better on the 6z this morning and I think I might go back on my previous comment, we might need an SSW now after all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

I'd like to think that's a possibility but to be honest there is to much energy above to the north which forces the weakish HP to collapse away to the SE pretty quickly...

Yep but you never know just makes the watching more intriguing in the earlier stages.:)

Edited by booferking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I wouldn't write a cold start to Dec off yet, the NH still looks very messy and the PV is all over the place....and no one should be writing winter off that's for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just checked my Diary in case it has fast forwarded to March 2017.

Erm no it says 21st November 10 days until the start of Winter.

Not aimed at anyone in particular but either grow a pair or give model

Watching a break,we get it every year,and no doubt next year and the

Year after will be the same,this is my hobby which i have a passion for but neither i or anyone can change what may or may not happen lets just chill and enjoy the ride good or bad.

Sorry mods way of topic,delete if necessary 

C.S

Could not agree more; best post I've ever read on this forum 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just had a quick look at the ensembles and there are some absolute stonkers in there!

This certainly isn't over yet :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm liking this 06z. A plunge of very frigid air for the time of year into Central and Eastern Europe next week. The cold then hangs on through the run leading to snow cover through Poland and Germany. FI, just for fun and all that but lovely to see.

 

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-16-360.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As others have said already it is only 21st November and some people are getting very dispondent. We live in the UK and are surrounded by water with weather predominently coming from the West.1947 and 1962/3 winters are very rare and are once in a blue moon event tbh. If you want consistent cold for 2/3 months move to Scandanavia or Eastern Europe. I think the models up to this weekend show a drying up period after we get soaked today and tomorrow.Thereafter there are too many options to mention ranging from a GH(looking a bit less likely) to a scandi high to even a Bartlett High.The point i am trying to make is it is a weather Forecasters nightmare atm but i still go back to IF a couple weeks ago saying that IF Heights are to rise it wont be till the very end of November/early December. Well today is only 21st so STILL 9 days left of November...I rest my case your Honour!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just checked my Diary in case it has fast forwarded to March 2017.

Erm no it says 21st November 10 days until the start of Winter.

Not aimed at anyone in particular but either grow a pair or give model

Watching a break,we get it every year,and no doubt next year and the

Year after will be the same,this is my hobby which i have a passion for but neither i or anyone can change what may or may not happen lets just chill and enjoy the ride good or bad.

Sorry mods way of topic,delete if necessary 

C.S

Nice post, CS...Uncertainty is our best friend just now. The PV looks as dishevelled as I've ever seen it. Game on!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just checked my Diary in case it has fast forwarded to March 2017.

Erm no it says 21st November 10 days until the start of Winter.

Not aimed at anyone in particular but either grow a pair or give model

Watching a break,we get it every year,and no doubt next year and the

Year after will be the same,this is my hobby which i have a passion for but neither i or anyone can change what may or may not happen lets just chill and enjoy the ride good or bad.

Sorry mods way of topic,delete if necessary 

C.S

A post that adds nothing to the topic of "Model Discussion".

Has anyone here mentioned that Winter is over - I can't see it.  This is not about "growing a pair", it's about discussing what the models are showing - after all this is the "Model Discussion" thread.  The models seem to be trending away from a colder scenario in the medium term - that is what the models are showing.  This is what I want to bring to the attention of members.  We take it as read that NWP can be volatile and caveats always apply for anything 7+ days ahead.

Edited by mulzy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice looking GEFS 6z mean from thursday this week until around next midweek, especially further south as time goes on..beats wind and rain any day!:D

21_72_500mb.png

21_96_500mb.png

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A post that adds nothing to the topic of "Model Discussion".

Has anyone here mentioned that Winter is over - I can't see it.  This is not about "growing a pair", it's about discussing what the models are showing - after all this is the "Model Discussion" thread.  The models seem to be trending away from a colder scenario in the medium term - that is what the models are showing.  This is what I want to bring to the attention of members.  We take it as read that NWP can be volatile and caveats always apply for anything 7+ days ahead.

BetrouwbaarheidECMWF.png

 

In that case I like to add this: somewhere between 7 and 10 days model reliability drops below 50%, at day 10 is 45%, so you have a bigger chance of getting something different than what you are being shown, of course the reliability drops even much further after 10 days

Edited by ArHu3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

As others have said already it is only 21st November and some people are getting very dispondent. We live in the UK and are surrounded by water with weather predominently coming from the West.1947 and 1962/3 winters are very rare and are once in a blue moon event tbh. If you want consistent cold for 2/3 months move to Scandanavia or Eastern Europe. I think the models up to this weekend show a drying up period after we get soaked today and tomorrow.Thereafter there are too many options to mention ranging from a GH(looking a bit less likely) to a scandi high to even a Bartlett High.The point i am trying to make is it is a weather Forecasters nightmare atm but i still go back to IF a couple weeks ago saying that IF Heights are to rise it wont be till the very end of November/early December. Well today is only 21st so STILL 9 days left of November...I rest my case your Honour!!

And another stonking post - how can winter be over more than a week before it's even started?

IMO, what the models suggest, 3 weeks hence, is a wee bit academic?:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...