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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Yes overall I'm happy with the ECM also.

Short term upgrades around the 168hr mark is what we need. It finds a pear and eats it later on though lol

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Taking a closer look at this evening's ecm

At T96 we have the Atlantic HP ridging NE as it is subject to a two pronged attack. Firstly by the upper low that has been causing a certain amount of mayhem along the eastern seaboard tracking NE and the energy/trough emitted from N. Canada which tracks east and is over Greenland. The evolution from here merely illustrated the difference between the GFS and the ecm and given the flexibility of interpretation of these interactions it could all be different the next run although the basic framework remains intact.

Anyway from here the Greenland energy initially flattens the Atlantic ridge as it moves rapidly east but the trough from the SW, whilst phasing in with the upper low to our south west pushes back the HP so that by T168 the high is centred in the North Sea ridging north with the cut off upper low to the south west of the UK. Thus we have a surface analysis of high pressure west of Norway and low over Iberia giving a rather benign easterly over the UK with temps around average.

From here both the HP and trough slip SE allowing an upper trough to approach from the west which would probably impact Scotland.

 

ecm_z500_anom_natl_8.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.png

 

Edited by knocker

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - crap run this - 0z was much better.

Regarding Ecm 12z..Agreed, totally!

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4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

How can it be crap................come on guys be sensible. Crap is raging SWlies, too be honest you can aim potential at most of todays runs , they are all quite alike just with a different route, i'm sure a ECM 264 would be pleasing on the eye.

It's just my opinion:)

The 00z ended far superior going forward

240_mslp500.png.963fafc5466b722e45d582496d429690.png

Edited by Frosty.

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The major issue for me is that Canadian block, as the rule goes what comes up must come down, in this instance we are seeing cold air from the arctic feeding into Greenland hence why we continue to see troughing develop and try to flatten heights in the Atlantic/UK sector. Hence the lack of heights building strongly over Greenland during the 5-8 day range despite positive signals in the longer range.

The ECM does offer two glimmers of hope, the first is there still being a slight chance to develop a high north/north east of the UK which could allow low heights over western Russia to push back westwards into Europe, shown here.

ECH1-168.GIF?20-0

We really need that Atlantic low to disrupt and dig south east towards the low heights over Iberia.

The second glimmer is out at day 10

ECH1-240.GIF?20-0

Can we begin to shift that ridge/high latitude high eastwards and allow a higher chance to pull in an arctic maritime northerly.

More runs needed to being honest, but it seems to be a case of waiting patiently to get that northerly solution into the reliable timeframe, or we could get a surprise cold easterly solution. 

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It's just my opinion:)

Of course mate as is mine and we can both be right :D  I'm happy to get the HP over us to start as you have previously said that will give us fog and frost and feel seasonal.

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10 minutes ago, Banbury said:

How can it be crap................come on guys be sensible. Crap is raging SWlies, too be honest you can aim potential at most of todays runs , they are all quite alike just with a different route, i'm sure a ECM 264 would be pleasing on the eye.

You beat me to it, the 240 chart looks to be loading WAA into eastern Canada towards Greenland.  I think the days after would be showing a potent northerly blast and who knows what thereafter.  

ECH1-240.gif

I know it's all academic as it's deep FI, but the trends are there for all to see and there is currently a keenness for the big 2 models (given UKMO don't go out that far) to build strong heights to the NW.  If this continues into tomorrow there will be some corking runs to enjoy.  It's always a long road to cold for the UK, but I think we could just be taking the handbrake off!

Edited by Ice Day

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Very happy with the ecm run tonight. As mpkio2 posted above, quite similar to the gfs at day 10. 

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In summation from my earlier post

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker

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Good Sunday Folks!  Ecm and gfs  Broadly agree on an unsettled start. a brief settled spell and as we enter day ten the floodgates of cold flow from the Artic as the ridge moves East , Extremely interesting synoptics......

snowx.gif

lightningx.gif

B2vL3vHIYAAJ1ZY.jpg

joe cox.png

joe coxx.png

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16 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

Hey fellow model-watches,

The Epic Saga continues!!!!!!!!

I thinks its about time I put in my two cents with regards to the models and our potential for cold end Nov/beg Dec. I've been monitoring this thread since mid-Oct, and the amount of volitile model, flipping and flopping from one extreme to the other (With re cold potiential - yes or no,) has been so serve, I almost feel exhausted from the whole saga. It feels beeing on a roller-coaster that goes on for just a bit too long and you start to feel, "OK, I've had enough now," Actually, a "Roller-Coaster" is exactly how I would describe this experience.

Anywho, with ragards to the models, I believe the ECM 12z isn't as bad as people make it out to be. If anything, I think the 240h from the ECM has two similarities to the GFS 12z 240h

ECM 12z 240h
ECH1-240_mjw2.GIF

GFS 12z 240h
gfsnh-0-240_xcc6.png

Notice the heights from North Canada joining up to the artic high and a a low off Newfouland on ECM and GFS (Albeit, positions of lows and highs are a little different). The similarities are there - these two things can play a pard in increasing blocking over Greenland.

Of course, all this will chnage in next run as it is FL (Anything after 72h, I'm considering FL in this very uncertain time!). So, whats the point of analysing this then? Just to prove the point that, perhaps, we are getting some kinda of agreement between some of the models.

~mpkio2~

Agree members posting charts in major Fi and taken them as factualy.We all know from experience gfs swings back and forth from various runs. Its cold in the short term with loads of potenital.IF  it was a repeat of last winter i think i would take a model hoilday.loads to look forward in the coming week by Wednesday i hope it will be a little clearer.I tend to go with ecm for trends past 144 just my opinion.

 

Chin up if we keep hitting the dart board we will soon hit the bullseye.

:cold:

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AO was trending towards negative yesterday - not today however.

IMG_3590.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

AO was trending towards negative yesterday - not today however.

IMG_3590.PNG

looks pretty negative to me Ali? I'll take that for the time of year!

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

looks pretty negative to me Ali? I'll take that for the time of year!

Whoops, I meant neutral !! It has Defo trended negative today!! Doh

Edited by Ali1977

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Ha fair enough Ali. Model fatigue perhaps 

ECM mean looks ok to me as wel!

IMG_3717.PNG

IMG_3718.PNG

Considering that's the end of autumn, very optimistic heading into early winter

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM..mean..looks...good!!:D

Yes, looks like it would go on to show a northerly for the weekend 3rd Dec

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25 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Hope that dog doesn't want a pony & trap!!:shok:

:rofl:

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM..mean..looks...good!!:D

Yup, similar to the GFS mean at 240 but given the choice I'd take the ECM. PV slightly more to the East which in theory may help with a more direct Northerly 

IMG_3591.PNG

IMG_3592.PNG

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I'll take the EPS means any day of the week. They certainly have woodshed potential

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

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