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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How the hell did we get into a position where heights to our S are an issue?

h500slp.png

I don't know but it's not often we see the vortex on our side of the hemisphere. If it would just drop south....

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How the hell did we get into a position where heights to our S are an issue?

h500slp.png

Lol! Sorry you just have to laugh, but this route to cold is the more flattening of the high into submission with no retrogression but without decent blocking over Greenland we see shortwaves forming near Iceland. Anyway the GFS shows poor upstream continuity  between runs so hopefully the ECM won't deliver this long drawn out saga.

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Starting to get somewhere now.  Heights building to the NW, not too dissimilar from the 0z

gfsnh-0-264.png

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Game on - this is a trend but just to far on for any excitement just yet.

Hideously different over the USA compared to the last wrong though!!

IMG_3583.PNG

IMG_3584.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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As used to be the saying back in the day, 'flipping 'eck Tucker'.  This at 300 (just for fun of course).

gfsnh-0-300.pnggfsnh-1-300.png

This is all out in lala land of course, however two of the last three GFS runs have provided some FI cold shenanigans.  Be lovely if it becomes a growing trend.

Edited by Ice Day

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Game on - this is a trend but just to far on for any excitement just yet.

As Nick has pointed out...I wouldn't get excited at all given the complexity of the evolution to get to that point. Frought with difficulty around the Greenland/Iceland area.

Also, the theme of WB -NAO crops up again..

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Edited by CreweCold

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well i will settle for this chart if we ever get her but for sure it will all change in 6h time but there is good agreement now up to 240h at least by all main model :friends:

gfs-0-312.png

Edited by igloo

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Saying that, not far off a 78/79 grail scenario here. I suspect the N of the UK would be buried under feet of the stuff whilst the south is slightly milder

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

Zonality reversed there!

Edited by CreweCold

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Hopefully the ENS keep trending colder beyond day 10 - they probably/will paint a better picture than the Op. 

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The Gfs 12z in low res is complex and dramatic and colder than the 6z with more potential for snow!

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png

prectypeuktopo.png

h850t850eu (2).png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmintemp.png

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z in low res is complex and dramatic and colder than the 6z with more potential for snow!

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png

prectypeuktopo.png

h850t850eu (2).png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmintemp.png

Fantastic run from 12z 

Worth noting, based on that run, there would be many significant snow events, Midlands north.  unfortunately mainly rain for the far south

Will more than likely change next run, hopefully to something very wintry nation wide. :)

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2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Fantastic run from 12z 

Worth noting, based on that run, there would be many significant snow events, Midlands north.  unfortunately mainly rain for the far south

Will more than likely change next run, hopefully to something very wintry nation wide. :)

I wish the run hadn't ended, the best was yet to come!:cold:

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its bordering on excrutiating lol, to and fro, a lot hinges on the retrogression, yes no yes no, its one eyr covered frpm behind thr sofa stuff watching these runs come out!!! I need a positive post from GP to calm the nerves! Anyway, amateur dramatics aside Gfs12z goes onto produce the goods as the uk high eventually pulls NW, im sure me frosty crewe cold and the rest of thr mafia are literally pushing ourselves!

Hope the hunt brings snowy results!!! :)

I saw all of this coming when we missed out on the first attempt at retrogression progged for early this week!

It's why I was so annoyed when the GFS backed down to the ECM

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I saw all of this coming when we missed out on the first attempt at retrogression progged for early this week!

It's why I was so annoyed when the GFS backed down to the ECM

Let's hope Ecm backs towards gfs at 240 tonight, along with great gfs ens :)

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17 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Fantastic run from 12z 

Worth noting, based on that run, there would be many significant snow events, Midlands north.  unfortunately mainly rain for the far south

Will more than likely change next run, hopefully to something very wintry nation wide. :)

IF this run comes off or very similar there could be widespread snow even down my way south of the M4 even ,along way off but great to see , very tantalising though ,lets see tonights ecm next cheers 

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Some fantastic ENS out there - It would be nice to hear the EPS/GLOSEA see a similar pattern 

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS 12Z  ens19 has the longest Northerly in the history of Northerlys for the uk haha:cold:

northerly.png

northerly1.png

Oh I do love a nice unstable northerly

gensnh-2-1-360.png

Yep there are some decent looking perturbations around but would like to see these at 144 hrs rather than nearer 384!

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Some fantastic ENS out there - It would be nice to hear the EPS/GLOSEA see a similar pattern 

Yes, the best 850 graph of the season coming up - not loads of flatliners but a lot of the ens dip below -5c at some point and at least 5 get close to -10

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the best 850 graph of the season coming up - not loads of flatliners but a lot of the ens dip below -5c at some point and at least 5 get close to -10

A lot of dross in there too...circa 60% end up with no discernible wintry pattern at all by day 16. No wonder Ian F has said there's a raft of outcomes on the table at present.

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The GEFS anomaly this evening continuing the trend of late, supported previously to some extent by NOAA and the EPS, of retrogressing the HP and ridging it NW whilst dropping a trough south just to the east. This would portend a cool north westerly flow in general but the detail and subsequent transitional variations as systems traverse from the west would depend on future det. runs and of course subsequent input from NOAA and th EPS. Temps would trend to a little below average with this scenario.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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