Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

Lot's of scatter on the latest NAO update still every chance it will remain negative

nao.sprd2.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It looks like 5/6 days of quiet weather under a mid-latitude high across the UK from around mid week before any further changes.

From what i can see further on is that we have a weaker set of +ve hts across Greenland with the main core moving west towards Canada at day 10.On that basis it's difficult to see a way that any deep cold  will come south to the UK-we do need to see more solid blocking around Greenland for that.

Day 10 Ht anomaly charts

EDH101-240.gifgensnh-21-5-240.png

Those heights do keep the mean path of the jet further south towards us so after the rather cold high at the surface the most likely development is more changeable but rather cold weather as the high fades.

A look at the London graph

 ensemble-tt6-london.gif

shows temperatures dipping to just below  average towards month end.There some colder members but as ever at the later range we need many more showing before we can expect a real cold spell as we go into the new month.

I think the one thing we can take from the latest outputs is that we have no strong signal for a period of mild south westerlies from a traditional early Winter raging jet.

With regards to the high being too far west (over north east Canada) as opposed to Greenland, I remember GP posted the other day that this may help to raise heights over Scandi/Barents Sea. Maybe something to look out for in the 10 day plus range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes but NCEP in doing their monthly forecast use a wide range of models so I would have thought they would include the GEM and ECM. I hope the USA isn't going to steal our cold again!

There's a lot of N American models and they all, bar one, forecast very positive anomalies for the US in December.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

If I'm reading between the lines correctly, they're saying what should happen with -AO is not necessarily what you'll get as NH mode is a bit lopsided atm.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Sort of ties in with the lt meto forecast of more unsettledates, windy weather as we hit Dec. A bit of a change from a couple of days ago.

Wrong thread , but that's not what the latest says at all ??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAO update kindly posted above is much improved on yesterday's update. As is the AO update. Maybe some decent 12z runs to come later?

Edited by blizzard81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Wrong thread , but that's not what the latest says at all ??

25th Nov - 4th Dec forecast ends with potential for more unsettled, windy weather at the start of December.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just the Models Outputs please, Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How odd...After 24 hours' connectivity problems, I come back a few runs later to find that the models have flip-flopped at T+384?

But, unless I am barking up entirely the wrong tree (not unheard of!) things are still looking good for at least a few days' frost and fog - before something happens...Will the HP retrogress towards Greenland? Will it sink away to the SW and introduce an Atlantic influence? Or, will it become a beastly Bartlett?

So, do not despair or assume the worst - many of the seasonal signals would still favour a retrogression toward Greenland over the other two options - I take the uncertainty highlighted by Fergie to be a major positive, this time round...It is, after all, only November 20!:yahoo:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm beginning to think that any significant UK cold will have to wait until the middle of Dec. The trend with the models has been to delay any early Dec cold and move it back somewhat. On a positive note though, I am looking forward to the seasonal dry, frosty, foggy weather heading our way later this week :)

God the patience word will start again. It'll be end of December then wait til January etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

God the patience word will start again. It'll be end of December then wait til January etc

Got a feeling the 12z runs will please most on here tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

God the patience word will start again. It'll be end of December then wait til January etc

More runs are needed!:D

There are more positives in the extended range compared to this time last year when it was all negatives staring into a mild abyss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Got a feeling the 12z runs will please most on here tonight.

Hope so blizzard!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Hope so blizzard!

Regarding the comment about the 12z likely to be more pleasing on the eye for coldies,  either which way I'm not just hoping for more wintry low res, I'm expecting it more often than not. I'm also looking forward to the frosty fine weather that the models are firming up on..there could however be some persistent fog which would make affected areas very cold by day, maybe hovering around freezing or just above.

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/18/2016 at 22:33, Frosty. said:
On 11/18/2016 at 22:41, Catacol said:

there is a huge difference between this time last year to now. the state of the PV is very near non existent even when you go back to the the extreme of 1962-63 you can still see a big blob of PV over the hudson bay but still it delivered the coldest of 1900s 

 

 

 

 

 

archivesnh-1962-12-25-0-0.png

Edited by igloo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me this already looks better st 162, especially in the Newfoundland area.

Where on the 06z a low formed in that area stopping the PV head south East it hasn't this run, allowing slightly higher pressure to form behind it which could get us back in line with the 00z. We shall see.

IMG_3580.PNG

IMG_3581.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This run is looking better the high is closed of east and pushed further west.. better heights getting into Canadian area

gfsnh-0-174.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MV tweeted this yesterday but also gives an idea of the EPS ext 500mb anomaly

V.JPGV 2.JPG

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now we need the WAA in the Atlantic to head through the gap towards Labrador then its game on.

IMG_3582.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surely that one conveniently placed shortwave isn't going to stop the retrogression is it??

h500slp.png

This is the UK...it probably will!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big are of high pressure in the pole (1030hpa)

 

gfsnh-0-216_jay4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Surely that one conveniently placed shortwave isn't going to stop the retrogression is it??

h500slp.png

This is the UK...it probably will!

Hopefully not. The lobe over the north west is moving (painfully slowly) in the right direction. If it can reinforce the scandi trough then it should end up like the 00z. Come on GFS, the force is strong...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Surely that one conveniently placed shortwave isn't going to stop the retrogression is it??

h500slp.png

This is the UK...it probably will!

Shortwave drama..you can tell its almost winter!:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shortwaves are weakening, replaced by Heights this could be a great run. 

So slow, it's like the UK has a little forcefield to the North stopping anything entering without a battle !!

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Hopefully not. The lobe over the north west is moving (painfully slowly) in the right direction. If it can reinforce the scandi trough then it should end up like the 00z. Come on GFS, the force is strong...

How the hell did we get into a position where heights to our S are an issue?

h500slp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...