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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Just now, knocker said:

Ah yes. I think it must be an age thing as I keep forgetting the threads ecm day ten gambit.  I was going to add some comment on the ext EPS but I note ba has already done so. Suffice to say the 10-15 anomaly is not significantly different to last night's, perhaps just declined and mid Atlantic ridging.

Yes, be interesting to see on the London graph if the amount of runs flatlining the 2M max temps 5c or below has diminished or is similar to yesterday's 12z run.

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The GEFS 00z mean shows quite a lengthy anticyclonic spell on the way, it will make a pleasant change from all the wind and rain!

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 00z mean shows quite a lengthy anticyclonic spell on the way, it will make a pleasant change from all the wind and rain!

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

Nice to have fog and frost it will feel very seasonal ..................as for wind and rain, rare in these parts too be honest . Apart from last night of course

Edited by Banbury

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16 minutes ago, Banbury said:

..................as for wind and rain, rare in these parts to be honest .

Wind and rain rare?. That's a good one:D

Anyway, after the next few days of unsettled weather its a slowly improving outlook as high pressure builds in from the NW and sticks around approx 7 days going by the 00z output.

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Wind and rain rare?. That's a good one:D

Anyway, after the next few days of unsettled weather its a slowly improving outlook as high pressure builds in from the NW and sticks around approx 7 days going by the 00z output.

IMBY Frosty...................IMBY...................down here its been relatively through the Autumn

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After the 10 day mark 6z different again ( OP) by the looks of things . Well into FI of course

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

After the 10 day mark 6z different again ( OP) by the looks of things . Well into FI of course

Yes Marcus - the 00z was more in line with the ens means. At the moment, the 06z looks like its chosen one from the top row!

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes Marcus - the 00z was more in line with the ens means. At the moment, the 06z looks like its chosen one from the top row!

Hoping so ENS will tell of course , massively different deep into FI ................always for J F F value obviously

 

 

gfsnh-0-324.png?6

Edited by Banbury

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Choose which one you'd prefer...

0Z gfsnh-0-336.png     or 6Z gfsnh-0-324.png?6

The whole 6Z run is so dull it might cause me to go into hibernation. At least we have some cool, calm weather to look forward to before any real chance of something more wintry.

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Not a great Op, hopefully plenty of 00z support in the ENS. This is probably one of those weeks where you should step away from model watching for a few days!!!

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1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Choose which one you'd prefer...

0Z gfsnh-0-336.png     or 6Z gfsnh-0-324.png?6

The whole 6Z run is so dull it might cause me to go into hibernation. At least we have some cool, calm weather to look forward to before any real chance of something more wintry.

It's just the normal ups and downs of following every run.:)

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Am I right in thinking the 6Z is radically different due to the deep low west of Greenland blocking height rises moving north?

 

GFSOPEU00_288_1.png

GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

Edited by Sperrin

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The retrogression has been always been forecast to be a slow and arduous process,the modelling is starting to frustrate me as it always seems to get pushed back.

gensnh-21-5-216.pngEDH101-216.GIF?20-12

The ensemble means from GFS and ECM now both strongly indicate retrogression by 216+. The ECM was always reluctant to build heights around Greenland, however clearly it is now on onboard.

Consistency from both models, however we need to get these within the 192+ timeframe as the event seems to be getting pushed back.

gfsnh-12-216.png?6

GFS 6z looks like an outlier at 216 +

gfsnh-12-384.png?12

The above chart is from 6 days ago.

The consistency from the GFS is remarkable and encouraging, its the retrogression process itself which is being modelled poorly.

It seems this is the most likely pattern change to me. Can we finally see these charts creep into the reliable timeframe?

 

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2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

The retrogression has been always been forecast to be a slow and arduous process,the modelling is starting to frustrate me as it always seems to get pushed back.

gensnh-21-5-216.pngEDH101-216.GIF?20-12

The ensemble means from GFS and ECM now both strongly indicate retrogression by 216+. The ECM was always reluctant to build heights around Greenland, however clearly it is now on onboard.

Consistency from both models, however we need to get these within the 192+ timeframe as the event seems to be getting pushed back.

gfsnh-12-216.png?6

GFS 6z looks like an outlier at 216 +

gfsnh-12-384.png?12

The above chart is from 6 days ago.

The consistency from the GFS is remarkable and encouraging, its the retrogression process itself which is being modelled poorly.

It seems this is the most likely pattern change to me. Can we finally see these charts creep into the reliable timeframe?

 

It has been slow but it has always been for the end of November start of December, it seems we have been waiting for months lol

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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not a great Op, hopefully plenty of 00z support in the ENS. This is probably one of those weeks where you should step away from model watching for a few days!!!

Totally agree ,i do this myself sometimes , it helps i,m sure ,looking according to charts that high pressure will become established but of course positioning critical ,half expecting a STella run soon though ,and not the drink variety gang ,cheers :yahoo:

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9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It has been slow but it has always been for the end of November start of December, it seems we have been waiting for months lol

gfsnh-12-264.png?12

Some runs had it occurring by the 23rd to be fair.

However yes most runs forecast it for the end of November.

The event still looks set to occur IMO, but I do think the retrogression itself has been slightly pushed back. No real cause for concern unless the ensemble means swing away from the event. To my mind, the ensembles from both ECM and GFS have strengthened the blocking signal.

Edited by Zakos

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Control different in regards the dartboard of a LP at the bottom of Greenland

gensnh-0-1-144.png

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8 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Am I right in thinking the 6Z is radically different due to the deep low westock of Greenland blocking height rises moving north?

 

GFSOPEU00_288_1.png

GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

I think its the spolier low that spins of the main low it is a lot closer to us so stops the WAA.

gfsnh-0-216.png

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I feel a rendition of Somewhere Over The Rainbow is in order to describe the outputs. The first retrogression fails with todays outputs even flatter than yesterdays upto T168hrs. Thereafter the ECM delivers another rainbow with a nice looking T240hrs chart , the problem is that we're not seeing a strong coherent signal to raise pressure over Greenland and you need that to help deliver the colder conditions into the UK.

For newbies you should really think of Greenland high pressure as the delivery driver for cold, strong blocking works in tandem with a troughing over Scandi to help funnel the cold south with a north/ne flow.

Without the strong blocking it becomes much more hazardous. Of course we shouldn't view everything in the context of say 2010 but there the outputs even ten days out had a very strong signal for high pressure over Greenland, we're not seeing that here.

Putting my obvious irritation with rainbows aside, it does look like calming down after some wild weather with some cooler conditions replacing the very mild air instigated by the Russian high over mainland Europe, and for the UK some frost and fog likely.

We then wait to see whether theres a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!

Ironically nick, it was the flatter jet on the 00z from greenland into scandi which allowed energy to traverse into the main vortex lobe, strengthening it and causing it to sink into europe. The 06z kept the euro/scandi high in place, keeping the vortex at bay. I'm not too worried at this stage. If the 00z evolution was to happen, we would need that flatter jet at around 240. One to watch...

Actually the ECM is better as it kills the high earlier and looks like it would go on to evolve like the GFS 00z.

ECH1-240-3.gif

Edited by bobbydog

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GFS op is an outlier looking at the mean. Good news if correct. Quite a few ENS looking like the 00z Op

Edited by Ali1977

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7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Ironically nick, it was the flatter jet on the 00z from greenland into scandi which allowed energy to traverse into the main vortex lobe, strengthening it and causing it to sink into europe. The 06z kept the euro/scandi high in place, keeping the vortex at bay. I'm not too worried at this stage. If the 00z evolution was to happen, we would need that flatter jet at around 240. One to watch...

Retrogressing highs can only occur with the right upstream signal to help pull those further west and north. You need the jet to dig south and amplify in the mid Atlantic. If the route to cold is going to come through that then we need that amplification initially.

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14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS op is an outlier looking at the mean. Good news if correct. Quite a few ENS looking like the 00z Op

The 28th-30th Nov seems to be the time to watch.

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The 06z gefs are a bit of a mess looking through them 

any good looking cold solutions ala 00z op quickly become west based and there are even a couple of scandi ridges thrown in

i wouldn't make too many predictions based on that suite 

 

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