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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Thanks Knocker - brilliant forecast which even I can understand (I think).  You really should do this for a living! 

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Might have rose tinted glasses( snow tinted glasses) on but you can see how the ECM at T240 could go in a similar direction as the later frames of the gfs. There isn't much in the way for the high to build in the NW. 

I get it can all change in the blink of an eye but imo this will be a trend moving forward.  

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Edited by That ECM

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Gfs 0z is simply sensational!!:D:cold:

Huge block to the NW and the vortex ripped into shreds, we can dream!!! 

Edited by northwestsnow

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs 0z is simply sensational!!:D:cold:

Huge block to the NW and the vortex ripped into shreds, we can dream!!! 

GFS 0z extreme FI is sensational. The majority of the run is dry and cold as the high settles over Scotland. FI is just that and will chop and change. It is nice to look at though and with background signals positive we can but dream

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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

GFS 0z extreme FI is sensational. The majority of the run is dry and cold as the high settles over Scotland. FI is just that and will chop and change. It is nice to look at though and with background signals positive we can but dream

Quite right JS, tbh anything past 120 is deep FI in my book, can you imagine the NW server if thar run got down to 48h,like you say, we can dream ... :)

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Understanding there has been snowfall in parts please only discuss 'Current Model Output' in here, There are other threads more suited. Many thanks, Please continue..

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morning  all after a very wet night this should send the cold lovers into dream world i know it wont happen but its looks  nice

gfs-2-384.png

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Well we've had 3 harsh frosts here in a row along with falling snow on Thursday something I don't remember happening too often in mid Nov. Definitely an unusual start to Winter this year. All runs now agree on a  cold mainly dry spell through the latter part of the week. Frost, severe at times, looks like continuing which if nothing else will help lower ground temps!

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Cracking GEFS 0z ens, thought they would look even better in 850 graph form but still a slow process to get frigid uppers but we are getting there slowly.

ECM mean 240 much improved, hard to tell exactly how good they would be in ext period but definitely a great 0z set of runs so far.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cracking GEFS 0z ens, thought they would look even better in 850 graph form but still a slow process to get frigid uppers but we are getting there slowly.

ECM mean 240 much improved, hard to tell exactly how good they would be in ext period but definitely a great 0z set of runs so far.

-5's to -8's will do ...............................--10's are rare

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cracking GEFS 0z ens, thought they would look even better in 850 graph form but still a slow process to get frigid uppers but we are getting there slowly.

ECM mean 240 much improved, hard to tell exactly how good they would be in ext period but definitely a great 0z set of runs so far.

It's looking better longer term (for coldies) and its also looking good for around 1 week of settled crisp anticyclonic weather in the more reliable timeframe.

The improvement in the extended GEFS started yesterday on the 6z / 12z in particular..let's hope the cold is coming!

Edited by Frosty.

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's looking better longer term (for coldies) and its also looking good for around 1 week of settled crisp anticyclonic weather in the more reliable timeframe.

Now we need this theme to keep going, backed up by the METOs knowledge. Even though it's been looking good for cold late Nov/early Dec we've still been chasing FI charts - and still are. If this cold is going to come early Dec we need the theme to strengthen, with ENS support. If all today's GFS FIs show similar to to the 00z and tonight's ECM looks similar than this morning I may start believing. 

FI charts are fun but annoying all the same.

Downward theme evident but nothing special on the 10 days ECM ENS but it's beyond that we're looking at, the 15 day may give more info if anyone has it!!!

IMG_3577.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

-5's to -8's will do ...............................--10's are rare

Someone pointed out the other day that in certain setups -2c will suffice but I am greedy, I don't  want any of these marginal slushfests, from the POV of avoiding them then -8c plenty cold enough, however, if your relying on showers from the E/NE then you need -10c at the time of year to get them right across to the west and even lower late in winter because of colder SST's, all that considered, ideally you want a very sharp lapse rate between your 850's and your 500's preferably sub mid 520's dam heights (darker blues on meteo), this all with view to getting heavy PPN.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cracking GEFS 0z ens, thought they would look even better in 850 graph form but still a slow process to get frigid uppers but we are getting there slowly.

ECM mean 240 much improved, hard to tell exactly how good they would be in ext period but definitely a great 0z set of runs so far.

I have to admit overall I wouldn't argue with that

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

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Just now, Sky Full said:

I had a funny dream last night.  Dreamt that we had a countrywide snow event before Christmas.

image.png

And this morning it's there in the GFS!   OK - a couple of weeks ahead and bound to change, but I can't remember seeing anything like this in the models last year, at any time?  If the computers think this is possible, then that's good enough for me at this time of year....

That chart though would only bring significant snowfall to the Pennines, E Yorks, N Wales  ann N an E Scotland, still a stonker though.  -  Always ignore the very pale shade of pinks on those charts, that just means a few snow grains an not in the whole area.

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Just now, knocker said:

I have to admit overall I wouldn't argue with that

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

Its specifically the day 10 chart that I'm talking about though, not the 4 day mean, the d10 chart by definition means that a good number of members would be primed for full on retrograde high and a screaming Northerly.

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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

Nothing special on the 10 days ECM ENS but it's beyond that we're looking at, the 15 day may give more info if anyone has it!!!

Similar to previous output though some upstream changes with a cut off upper low over e USA and mean sharp upper ridge GIN sea. Anomolys look fairly consistent but the upper flow looks quite flat from a wnw direction with less upper troughing to our ese  - could be indicative of European heights to our south being more uncertain. Still cooler than average though not markedly so by day 15 after being lower 11-14. 

Could indiacte the Atlantic trying to get  into the scandi circulation at a higher latitude than s U.K. would like to see. Funnily enough, that also looked on the cards from the fi GEFS 

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Someone pointed out the other day that in certain setups -2c will suffice but I am greedy, I don't  want any of these marginal slushfests, from the POV of avoiding them then -8c plenty cold enough, however, if your relying on showers from the E/NE then you need -10c at the time of year to get them right across to the west and even lower late in winter because of colder SST's, all that considered, ideally you want a very sharp lapse rate between your 850's and your 500's preferably sub mid 520's dam heights (darker blues on meteo), this all with view to getting heavy PPN.

Valid points Feb ,  after last year my bar isn't as high as yours i'm afraid :D

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Starting to look colder now in GFS for the start of december, still many hours before we are there but it is interesting anyway. ECM is still mild and wet thought

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its specifically the day 10 chart that I'm talking about though, not the 4 day mean, the d10 chart by definition means that a good number of members would be primed for full on retrograde high and a screaming Northerly.

Ah yes. I think it must be an age thing as I keep forgetting the threads ecm day ten gambit.  I was going to add some comment on the ext EPS but I note ba has already done so. Suffice to say the 10-15 anomaly is not significantly different to last night's, perhaps just declined the mid Atlantic ridging.

Edited by knocker

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