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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Don't know what all the upset is about. 

We were always gonna see disagreements between each run.

With a negative NAO, lots of snow cover, Weak PV, Heights probable to our NW, and strat warming, I still feel very confident of a cold and at times, snowy December . 

Keep up the good faith :)

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gensnh-21-5-252.png?18EDH101-240.GIF?19-0

GFS 18Z mean shows further improvement, ECM mean at day 10 also now strongly hints towards retrogression

gensnh-21-1-384.png?18

Worryingly, the GFS mean at the very end of the run appears to show a breakdown of the block 

gensnh-21-5-384.png?18

However, looking at the anomalies, it looks to me as if there is large spread in the ensembles, however still  with a weak indication of a continuation of a negative AO and  low heights over europe.

Edited by Zakos
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5 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

GFS 18Z mean shows further improvement, ECM mean at day 10 also now strongly hints towards retrogression

 

Worryingly, the mean at the very end of the run appears to show a breakdown of the block 

 

However, looking at the anomalies, it looks to me as if there is large spread in the ensembles, however still a weak indication of a negative AO and a continuation of low height over europe.

Was thinking that but no panic - ive just seen the graph for Lancs / Yorks border, theres a distinct split, the mean is skewed by some very mild (hopefully outlier) soloutions, there are a few that flatline below -5c although too much 'spaghetti' for my liking but still decent.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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On another note (the hear and now), have you ever seen a model that overdoes the snow PPN as much as this, it makes the GFS PPN type charts look bias away from wintriness, run after run it churns out snowfests, its either been very bad in the run up to this storm or the MO and all their models are heading for a spectacular fail. I know where my money is and its not on the outcome most want on here.

aromehd-42-8-0_evy5.png

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111918&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Its as good as over the pole.

Anyway, ive just been flicking through the GEFS suite and it looks better than the 12z suite, there are some members which should go on to produce some cold uppers at 384 - the graph will look better, and some will be near misses as well, the caveat being that my early run-calling form is ok!!   -    could even be a flatliner or 2.

ECM ens better than 0z, possibly half of them have max temps of 5c or less for London and for a reasonable period at the back end of the run, what synoptics bring those temps though?  could be anticylonic, gentle Easterly or a Northerly.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Those ECM ensembles are not bad at all, just no strong signal.

I agree with others that GFS worryingly wants to return to a more mobile pattern early Dec with little blocking evident but then again it has been correcting Westward through the day.

If that trend continues tomorrow then we should continue to see the mean 850's drop in FI and possibly start to drop a little sooner with some very cold runs and a strong Atlantic block, we can worry about he possibility of west based -NAO setting up later as much better that than a tortuous flattening of the pattern. Fingers crossed I guess.

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Just now, Mucka said:

 

Those ECM ensembles are not bad at all, just no strong signal.

I agree with others that GFS worryingly wants to return to a more mobile pattern early Dec with little blocking evident but then again it has been correcting Westward through the day.

If that trend continues tomorrow then we should continue to see the mean 850's drop in FI and possibly start to drop a little sooner with some very cold runs and a strong Atlantic block, we can worry about he possibility of west based -NAO setting up later as much better that than a tortuous flattening of the pattern. Fingers crossed I guess.

I'm not so worried about the WB -NAO any more, more concerned at the general NAO setup early - mid December.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On another note (the hear and now), have you ever seen a model that overdoes the snow PPN as much as this, it makes the GFS PPN type charts look bias away from wintriness, run after run it churns out snowfests, its either been very bad in the run up to this storm or the MO and all their models are heading for a spectacular fail. I know where my money is and its not on the outcome most want on here.

aromehd-42-8-0_evy5.png

 

But that snowfall will represent mountains of Wales and Pennines, just not very well defined, so not out of the question.

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The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that today's model output will determine the fate of the first week of Dec. It could go either way imo.

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

But that snowfall will represent mountains of Wales and Pennines, just not very well defined, so not out of the question.

But It should be snowing here and should have been since 10pm, guess what, no PPN at all, its even got the track of the storm spectacularly wrong, i did get just below 5cm yesterday though.

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Today's  GFS 06z...12z..18z..upto T+162hrs are very similar to each other. 

Then similar to T+172hrs then the HP falling further south after  T+192 hrs...

I think it's very promising upto 162hrs.

I suspect early hours the 00z. GFS Will be different again and 06z to follow.

If we keep a consistant HP upto T+162 over the uk with a slow push further north on each  run .

I think this will significantly alter the T+204hr into the same pattern as today's 06z... just a thought...

Personally I think the HP moving North upto T+168hrs is a more likely out come ..I'm holding out for the next few days and paying particular interest in T+120hrs to T+144/162hrs.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But It should be snowing here and should have been since 10pm, guess what, no PPN at all, its even got the track of the storm spectacularly wrong, i did get just below 5cm yesterday though.

It looks as though the storm ppn is heading up the spine of the uk at current 

22.00hrs to 00:15hrs.

I can't post the runs due to copyright. 

But can supply wwwraintoday.co.uk.

I think there is a thread for this just noticed sorry

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1 hour ago, stewfox said:

I  see the NH global T2M forecasts for DJF have changed dramatically over the last few weeks.  Is this normal ? Forecast 20 oct top 30 October middle and 9 November bottom

 

20 oct.gif

30 oct.gif

9 nov.gif

i would not get my knickers in a twist viewing these sort of things  a good example would be the CFSV2 daily the model does not serve any purpose think of the positives this season to last season weak pv week jet thi time last year we were on to our 3rd major storm

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7 minutes ago, igloo said:

i would not get my knickers in a twist viewing these sort of things  a good example would be the CFSV2 daily the model does not serve any purpose think of the positives this season to last season weak pv week jet this time last year we were on to our 3rd major storm and a complete different setup

 

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20 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Not wanting to sound like a stuck record.... but to reiterate, not *all* models have gone hammer and tongs re potential SSW. Where there is better agreement is a -ve NAO/AO signal into Dec, but with potential for an unsettled spell to start the month. Whilst longer range suites still favour broad idea of high pressure to NW, low to east, there still remains considerable fluidity on the exact high-low positions and equal uncertainty on resultant temperature and ppn outcomes. Anyway that's all a way off... whereas a sting jet is here and now.

Thank you very much for replying fergie, and I agree, just trying to keep the faith. :)

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Looking forward to this winter .I' have a specially designed 2 din lcd stereo Internet based running of a windows  based software. We're I link local and national weather data to my software . I'm currently sat in my subaru forester. At staxton wold relaying raintoday GFS and ECM data and talking to you guys..

It seems a marvel compared to me looking at fax charts in the Yorkshire post in 1984. At 8 years old.

And asking mother sorepaw for 20pence lol.

Very good input tonight from all you guys as always. 

I'm going to use the necessary thread to post during the night on data from this storm I observe in my location. 

 

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Get the impression from some posts that some are dissapointed we are not seeing stonking Northerlies/Easterlies in the output as of yet but too me, even if they did show that at 200 plus hours, it will raise alot of hype and we will all say its not guranteed so perhaps its better we're not seeing those type of charts yet.

Still don't see much in the way of a trend towards a Greenland high at all it must be said, Greenland highs do seem much harder to get these days than in the 70's/80's etc because there does seem an increase in shortwave activity over Greenland, I have often seen alot of highs always close to Greenland but very rarely I have seen ridging into Greenland, apart from when its Spring of course. :rolleyes:

I am a little skeptical about the potential fog and frost being a widespread issue during the middle to late part of next week, one reason will be the wind strength, secondly, I heavily suspect this high will get filled in with a lot of cloud(may start as a clear high as some polar air does initially topple in) as that NE'ly wind increases. Scotland might be a little different storey though but again with milder uppers and any drift from the North Sea then cloud could become an issue.

 

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GFS going the wrong way this morning as far as any slim chance of getting cold upper air over the UK before end of month goes with the high sinking SE.

Plenty of dry crisp late Autumn weather on offer though so not a dead loss by any means.

Think this could be a good time to relieve my creeping model fatigue if GFS is anywhere close.

Spot the difference.

GFS 120

gfsnh-0-120.png.

GFS 240

gfsnh-0-252.png

 

This would wake me back up though.

gfsnh-0-288.png

 

Don't think I've ever seen a ridge anything like this modeled. Yes its silly FI but quite spectacular all the same.

gfsnh-0-336.pnggfsnh-1-360.png

Edited by Mucka
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Wow, if only this was in the reliable timeframe. Best FI for a while, and would lead to a pretty prolonged cold spell.

IMG_3572.PNG

At 240 it was pretty similar to last nights ECM too , although ECM looked to have more potential with a better shot of WAA in towards Greenland

IMG_3575.PNG

IMG_3576.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Just now, Mucka said:

A black hole anomaly, we're all doomed, doomed I tell ya!

gfsnh-12-336.png

Nice , hard to get sucked in being so far out. I have a feeling it may get back by the Ens though .

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After a fairly uninspiring 18z set, some very cold runs among the 00z, all about the trough forcing the high West and getting the amplification upstream.

A couple of runs getting below -8c 850's across England which would be exceptional for start of December but for some reason the graph doesn't reflect what my eyes see, would expect the mean to be a bit lower but I guess there are still plenty of runs that don't t go to plan and cancel out any cold signal :)

graphe3_1000_254_83___.gif

 

Finely balanced.

 

Edited by Mucka
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