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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Jest need the trough to our North to be a little quicker and deeper and the Atlantic low to be a tad slower and we would have charts similar to what Steve posted earlier with the Atlantic gateway to the SW of Greenland cut off.

gfsnh-0-228.png?18

All very finely balanced if this is the sort of pattern we see develop with this our second bite at reamplifying the Atlantic sector.

 

Edited by Mucka

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11 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Much better run

Yeah, the little low off the tip of Greenland runs across the top of the high pressure over us, 

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

And the high pressure heads off towards Greenland as it does so

gfsnh-0-234.png?18

Rather a delicately balanced situation, and yet another possible solution. I'll start getting interested when runs start to match,  until then the jury is out. 

Edited by Ravelin

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21 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Much better run

gfsnh-0-210_nqy4.png

 

Previous

gfsnh-0-216_rmf9.png

Yep, looks a lot better up towards Greenland without the trough heading from there to Newfoundland,  and some heights back in that area. 

as mucka mentioned we have some westward movement on every run, this should help with moving the high NW into the weakened area of PV up there, which in turn gets us the Northerly - keep this trend going and it could be here by late next weekend, and we may get the initial blast and not just Eastern Europe.

I expect the GEFS will have some very cold FIs again like the 12z

Edited by Ali1977

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It looks like a rinse and repeat with the first retrogression not managing to succeed with the suggestion we might see another go. The first chance goes pearshaped as theres simply not enough upstream amplitude to help pull the high much further to the nw. The second chance currently looks even more half hearted.

At least those mild conditions will be shown the door from mainland Europe as that poorly orientated Russian high decides to leave the scene.

Overall its hardly action packed in terms of wintry chances, it looks like we were promised Star Wars and ended up with a rather dull rom com.

That's not to say there isn't room for improvement because you can see how things could turn out more favourably so overall I think we're in a holding pattern.

No rampant PV, a strat on our side and other good background signals. We await some outputs that bring those together and deliver something a lot more interesting than whats currently on show.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex

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We are the roundabout and the low pressures are the cars it just keeps repeating and repeating getting rather boring now.  My head was spinning looking at that run 18z

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Have to say that there is a growing trend in GFS FI to not follow in the strat footsteps, the PV (albeit not a very pronounced one) starting to return to Greenland with a slight element of zonality creeping in - worrying times indeed.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to say that there is a growing trend in GFS FI to not follow in the strat footsteps, the PV (albeit not a very pronounced on) starting to return to Greenland with a slight element of zonality creeping in - worrying times indeed.

Cold heading the Eastern US and Canada in FI - shock horror!!! It must be our turn.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

No rampant PV, a strat on our side and other good background signals. We await some outputs that bring those together and deliver something a lot more interesting than whats currently on show.

 

 

The operational output may have been a little underwhelming but there has been plenty for coldies to take encouragement from in the extended GEFS 00z / 6z / 12z with some strong arctic incursions, more than yesterday..hopefully even more support in the coming days.

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to say that there is a growing trend in GFS FI to not follow in the strat footsteps, the PV (albeit not a very pronounced on) starting to return to Greenland with a slight element of zonality creeping in - worrying times indeed.

What i cant understand is the Greenland high is there for the taking and we never get there no purples to be seen around Greenland but we never get there? Always seem to get a spoiler low jumping of the eastern seaboard to shut us out.

Edited by booferking

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It looks like a rinse and repeat with the first retrogression not managing to succeed with the suggestion we might see another go. The first chance goes pearshaped as theres simply not enough upstream amplitude to help pull the high much further to the nw. The second chance currently looks even more half hearted.

At least those mild conditions will be shown the door from mainland Europe as that poorly orientated Russian high decides to leave the scene.

Overall its hardly action packed in terms of wintry chances, it looks like we were promised Star Wars and ended up with a rather dull rom com.

That's not to say there isn't room for improvement because you can see how things could turn out more favourably so overall I think we're in a holding pattern.

No rampant PV, a strat on our side and other good background signals. We await some outputs that bring those together and deliver something a lot more interesting than whats currently on show.

 

 

It is a little like pulling teeth at the moment. So many things looked primed and ready to go for UK cold but always too much energy in the northern arm of the jet. The AO and NAO forecasts do not look so good either compared to recently. A little disappointed with todays outputs to be honest including the ensembles.

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Just now, booferking said:

What i cant understand is the Greenland high is there for the taking and we never get there no purples to be seen around Greenland but we never get there? Always seems to get a spoiler low jumping of the eastern seaboard to shut us out.

You know the drill by now, you've been a member for the last 3 years!!!  if anything can go wrong it will + your a little younger than me so probably don't remember the mid 80s as well, you must have seen some zonal winters in the 90s.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You know the drill by now, you've been a member for the last 3 years!!!  if anything can go wrong it will + your a little younger than me so probably don't remember the mid 80s as well, you must have seen some zonal winters in the 90s.

Haha true been there many a time its just the background signals seem more promising for weeks now hopefully tomorrow we wake up to something more pleasing to the eyes.:D 

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to say that there is a growing trend in GFS FI to not follow in the strat footsteps, the PV (albeit not a very pronounced one) starting to return to Greenland with a slight element of zonality creeping in - worrying times indeed.

For me the most worrying thing is that the stratospheric output doesn't look promising in the 300+ hours range. Every single GFS run today has shown the vortex moving slowly from Siberia to the north pole. So December may not turn out as promising as we were hoping unless further warmings appear.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You know the drill by now, you've been a member for the last 3 years!!!  if anything can go wrong it will + your a little younger than me so probably don't remember the mid 80s as well, you must have seen some zonal winters in the 90s.

I don't quite understand the meaning of your post ? What have the mid 80's got to do with anything?

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The operational output may have been a little underwhelming but there has been plenty for coldies to take encouragement from in the extended GEFS 00z / 6z / 12z with some strong arctic incursions, more than yesterday..hopefully even more support in the coming days.

gfsnh-0-384.png?12gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Agreed.

Both the 12Z and 18Z GFS shows the block effectively breaking down towards the end of the run.

gensnh-21-1-384.png?12

Neither run seem to have much support from the 12z GFS mean which has been improving over the last day or so. hopefully the 18z mean shows further improvement

gensnh-21-5-276.png?12gensnh-21-5-348.png?12

GFS 12z mean anomaly shows strong signal for blocking to the NW until day 12, where it slightly weakens however the signal is effectively maintained until day 15, slightly weakening at the very end of the run.

 

 

Edited by Zakos

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Just now, karyo said:

For me the most worrying thing is that the stratospheric output doesn't look promising in the 300+ hours range. Every single GFS run today has shown the vortex moving slowly from Siberia to the north pole. So December may not turn out as promising as we were hoping unless further warmings appear.

Even the 1mb chart had a decent wave1 displacement pattern emerging (which is very unusual for this time of year) but now the PV is slap bang over the pole again, lets not be hasty though, lets wait to see if any wave 2 emerges and what effect it will have before we start chucking toys out,

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't quite understand the meaning of your post ? What have the mid 80's got to do with anything?

meaning he's seen a lot of zonal winters in his lifetime. he missed the most sustained run of blocked winters.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

meaning he's seen a lot of zonal winters in his lifetime. he missed the most sustained run of blocked winters.

Yeah, I understand now, cheers.

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GEFS 18z T192 mean is an exact carbon copy of ECM  12z T216 mean.

EDH1-216_eem8.GIFgensnh-21-1-192_cxr5.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I  see the NH global T2M forecasts for DJF have changed dramatically over the last few weeks.  Is this normal ? Forecast 20 oct top 30 October middle and 9 November bottom

 

20 oct.gif

30 oct.gif

9 nov.gif

Edited by stewfox

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/18_384_arctic1.png?cb=480

1 hPa does not have the vortex over the pole even at +384, let alone before then.

 

I concur with Nick's sense that the models are determined not to deliver from the ingredients at hand. In 8 years of model watching I've never seen anything quite like it - the amount of potential cold incursions being undone even when there's a lot to support amplification of the jet and blocking highs ruling the roost and retrograding from time to time. 

Either the models are missing something, or the environment being set up by the combined tropical and stratospheric forcing is not quite as expected.

I miss the good days in 2009 for example when one could reliably expect troughs not modelled to disrupt/tilt negatively to in fact disrupt/tilt negatively :clapping::laugh:

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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/18_384_arctic1.png?cb=480

1 hPa does not have the vortex over the pole even at +384, let alone before then.

 

I concur with Nick's sense that the models are determined not to deliver from the ingredients at hand. In 8 years of model watching I've never seen anything quite like it - the amount of potential cold incursions being undone even when there's a lot to support amplification of the jet and blocking highs ruling the roost and retrograding from time to time. 

Either the models are missing something, or the environment being set up by the combined tropical and stratospheric forcing is not quite as expected.

I miss the good days in 2009 for example when one could reliably expect troughs not modelled to disrupt/tilt negatively to in fact disrupt/tilt negatively :clapping::laugh:

Is that any better? The vortex appears to be over Greenland!

 

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http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111918&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Its as good as over the pole.

Anyway, ive just been flicking through the GEFS suite and it looks better than the 12z suite, there are some members which should go on to produce some cold uppers at 384 - the graph will look better, and some will be near misses as well, the caveat being that my early run-calling form is ok!!   -    could even be a flatliner or 2.

ECM ens better than 0z, possibly half of them have max temps of 5c or less for London and for a reasonable period at the back end of the run, what synoptics bring those temps though?  could be anticylonic, gentle Easterly or a Northerly.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Ok so when do we reasonably start to suggest that things perhaps aren't going to the (earlier) plan? 

In my eyes, the GFS runs of today have 1) Moderated the modelled stratospheric activity towards month's end (as has been noted by others) and 2) They have produced very underwhelming FI periods whereby the tropospheric vortex seemingly gathers some traction

I Just hope we see some swing back in the modelling soon to evoke some excitement once again. Mid latitude features aren't many peoples' cup of tea when they're after some snowfall and a bit of a cold period.

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