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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

it shouldn't be any surprise that we are on course for a spell of benign anticyclonic weather and I don't think there should be any disappointment as overnight frosts and crisp bright days beat the hell out of mild swly mush any day..in my opinion!:)

I hope you are right Frosty. I can see the high pressure, but with plenty of stubborn low cloud (as per usual) apart from the odd sunnier days which is worst than mild and low cloud, especially if you have to work outdoors.... 

Edited by rain_shadow

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The mean keeps the 850's close to or just below 0 as we move into winter so temperatures should be fairly close to the seasonal average a few runs though get close to -10

gefsens850London0.png

Whilst the mean does indicate some milder air in the next week or so surface temps will depend on whether we have any stubborn fog to contend with

Edited by Summer Sun

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The GEFS 12z mean shows an improving picture by later next week into week 2 as high pressure gradually builds in from the NW and eventually the high becomes centred over the uk bringing fine crisp days and cold nights with frost and fog becoming more widespread depending on cloud cover..it looks nice though. 

21_120_500mb.png

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Edited by Frosty.

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ECM shows things slowly but surely settling down from mid week

ECH1-96.GIF?19-0ECH1-120.GIF?19-0ECH1-144.GIF?19-0

ECH1-168.GIF?19-0ECH1-192.GIF?19-0ECH1-216.GIF?19-0

We should be seeing plenty of frost from mid-week maybe some stubborn fog too

Edited by Summer Sun

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Freezing Fog , stubborn to shift could well result in some rather chilly temps

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Nothing really cold in at 240 on the ECM, but that WAA heading from NE Canada towards Greenland would be sure to line up a blast from North down the line as it pushes the PV over Greenland in our general direction. No real support from the other Ops but the GEFS that did something similar and ended with us getting a Northerly flow did it a few days earlier than the ECM looks like doing.

Still very unsure of where we are going beyond early next weekend, could still get the cold in before day 10 if things fall right.

IMG_3570.PNG

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9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Freezing Fog , stubborn to shift could well result in some rather chilly temps

yes the east and especially the south east could well see sunny days and hard frosts but as always the the northwest will more than likely have to contend with the cloud and higher temps which will the feeding in from the west with good possibility of drizzle

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The GEFS 12z mean during early December looks cold and there is plenty of wintry perturbations showing again, the 6z was impressive too..just because the op flopped doesn't mean our chances of late Nov / early Dec cold have in any way diminished..the key word is POTENTIAL..something that was missing a year ago!

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Edited by Frosty.

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Although the GFS is showing huge differences in FI  its interesting that the ECM 00z and GFS 06z had a lot of similarities at around 10 days.

We often find huge difference between runs but what we are looking for in my humble opinion is the cross model consistency.

It will be very interesting to see the 18Z GFS tonight but i think we will see a lot of inconsistency with this set up.

A major issue is the lack of sea ice and along with the cold over Siberia i would expect high pressure to stay further North East over Siberia so perhaps the 06z does have a sliver of reality to it. The Madden Jullian Oscillation is also very interesting and has a lower dipole index seen than for may be 50 years.

I am a cold fan in winter so perhaps a little biased but  the first half of winter does look interesting, This is also giving a much needed boost for both European and Scottish ski resorts which of course is financially critical for the industry after a poor start last year

10 day similarity between ECM 00z and GFS 06z included

ecmslp.240.png

airpressure-3.png

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The cold Synoptics always seem to be plus 5 days ahead whilst it's eye candy I am not convinced of any real cold and snow hitting the majority anytime soon the favoured places in the north maybe.  Nice to get some chilly autumnal days though 

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I can't find anything particularly significant about the det runs so suffice it to say all still very fluid with energy charging the process still readily being emitted from Canada and the southern States.

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

The question is where do we go from here. The GEFS anomaly tonight is still looking at retrogressing the HP with the low pressure lingering to the south but at this stage nothing obvious vis Scandinavian/UK trough. This chart is not dissimilar to last night's NOAA 8-14

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_51.png

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11 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

The cold Synoptics always seem to be plus 5 days ahead whilst it's eye candy I am not convinced of any real cold and snow hitting the majority anytime soon the favoured places in the north maybe.  Nice to get some chilly autumnal days though 

Agree totally, People that are pros are banging on about 2-4 weeks + away stating that the trend is our friend and that things our in our favour odds on ect...

We cannot nail down a LP system 24hrs in advance let alone 2+ weeks in advance.

Personally yes we are currently in a better position going forward than the last few years, however imo the longer the blocking continues and with no real cold prospects ahead the more likely Atlantic will return. IMO (Grasp what we can for now as 4+ weeks may never deliver).  

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5 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Agree totally, People that are pros are banging on about 2-4 weeks + away stating that the trend is our friend and that things our in our favour odds on ect...

We cannot nail down a LP system 24hrs in advance let alone 2+ weeks in advance.

Personally yes we are currently in a better position going forward than the last few years, however imo the longer the blocking continues and with no real cold prospects ahead the more likely Atlantic will return. IMO (Grasp what we can for now as 4+ weeks may never deliver).  

I agree. We can't keep missing our opportunity because one thing is for sure, the Atlantic WILL return at some point. 

Not a doom and gloom post, it's just logic to me.

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Just a short post from me ,i,ll take what models are showing out till about 6/7 days ahead tonight .

We need i think to keep low pressure to our south and just hope high pressure becomes situated further north ,taking Met office further outlook one can hope that the data they have is saying low south high north ,so i am expecting further big firming up from the big three tomorrow , currently i have buckets of rain ,only 24hrs or so after some wet snow , Its great having this big yo yo now i feel as its got an air of the good old days ,not constant mild pathetic mush , and charts like we are seeing now in further outlook with just a Bit of luck Can deliver our cold wishes .I,m looking for trends and good signals ,we have it gang ,STellas all round , cheers .:cold::yahoo:.

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Unimpressed with the ECM 240 ensemble mean, lets hope it improves by 360.

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unimpressed with the ECM 240 ensemble mean, lets hope it improves by 360.

Looks ok to me, you can see the low heights moving east away from Greenland.. :)

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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unimpressed with the ECM 240 ensemble mean, lets hope it improves by 360.

Nothing wrong with that-

IMG_9568.PNG

ECM isnt keen on retrograde 1 although happy that the opportunities line up as the pressure belt isnt disrupted - Day 10 op was exactly what I posted earlier all be it slightly west based-

S

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing wrong with that-

IMG_9568.PNG

ECM isnt keen on retrograde 1 although happy that the opportunities line up as the pressure belt isnt disrupted - Day 10 op was exactly what I posted earlier all be it slightly west based-

S

 

Steve I just don't like the evolution from 216 to 240, yes I know its an ensemble mean, but the 216 looked prime for Atlantic ridging to start sharpening up towards Greenland, the op had this a few days ago, the 240 chart suggests that some of the members that were about to unleash the trough south-eastwards flattened out again.

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Rough calculation on the AO to months end returns -0.6 on the eps and the GEFS -1.1.

 

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The 6-10 anomalies tonight all on the same page with just minor orientation differences So essentially positive anomalies over Canada remain with the Atlantic HP ridging NE over Scotland.( possible with enclosed cell) and the upper low to the south of the UK. Thus on the surface progressing towards drier weather as the easterly wind component engages although the south could still be prone to unsettled interludes.Temps quite variable and prone to quite high latitudinal and diurnal variations but overall a liile above average.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

Moving into the latter period agreement actually is not too bad all things considered. All still with the strong anomalies over Canada and all agree on retrogression of the Atlantic HP albeit not the precise detail. And all indicate a weak trough to the SE of the UK but although an indication of negative anomalies no indication of a Scandinavian/UK trough as such. All of this portends a NW airflow and periods of unsettled weather with temps a little below average

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

.

Edited by knocker

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Whatever happens beyond T+240 hours, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes anticyclonic with fine chilly days and frosty, foggy nights depending on the variable cloud cover. It seems likely to become settled which will make a pleasant change from wet and windy!:)

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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GFS 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z Operational output showing progressively Westward shift of pattern through today's output as depicted by proximity of cold upper air to our NE

gfsnh-1-204.pnggfsnh-1-198.pnggfsnh-1-192.pnggfsnh-1-186.png?18

 

Edited by Mucka

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