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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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As if by magic after Ian's comments......the gfs delivers the goods lol you couldn't make it up. What a corker 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It offers a broad swathe of possible tracks into Monday and this spread is likely one reason for the lack of strong signal re snow probabilities. 

Sorry for not making myself clearer - meant mogreps-15 re scandi trough Atlantic ridge 

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Cracking gfs 06z. Now lets see those ensembles fall through the floor :)

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The 6z also looks better stratospherically with a better split at the 30hpa level.

There is still a tendency for the vortex to edge closer to the pole in the last few frames but overall an improvement.

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EDH101-240.GIF?19-12gensnh-21-5-240.png

Superb anomalies at day 10 from, GFS and ECM ensemble mean.

gensnh-21-1-312.png

intersting mean chart at +312 from GFS

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Fantastic chart at +384, looking at the anomaly chart, really looks like the UK could be in the sweet spot for snow in this setup.

 

 

 

Edited by Zakos

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Cracking end to the gfs06z that certainly would bring snow to the uk. But let's remember those charts are 14days away. We are only at mid November so plenty twist and turns to come this winter I feel. 

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If as M. Ventrice suggested yesterday on Twitter, the MJO stays amplified as opposed to fading out as per most model consensus, I wonder if that could add that little bit of upstream amplification needed to stop the low near Greenland later next week from flattening our ridge into Europe?

That could be the key to unlock a faster route to 'winter proper'. It also paves the way for forcing HLB closer to our NW in first half of Dec - though this could also be achieved if the MJO went briefly quiet and then reamplified in the Pacific.

- but with such an 'MJO break' we're reliant on the disrupted Arctic circulation permitting an extension of the blocking high toward (but not all the way to) Eurasia to pull cold air west from the vortex, and even then we need this to have a disrupting affect on the Atlantic jet rather than just triggering deep storm development that wraps in milder air from the Atlantic such as GFS often becomes obsessed with in such situations. The 06z has turned out to be a notable exception but we're going to need some luck to secure something like that. We do seem to be very much owed some luck though.

Edited by Singularity

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It's important to mention the spell of nice anticyclonic weather that develops later next week before the arctic conditions arrive on the Gfs 6z.

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It's important to mention the spell of nice anticyclonic weather that develops later next week before the arctic conditions arrive on the Gfs 6z.

yes indeed this will help bring down soil temps etc, it really is a stunning run from the GFS 6Z lets hope the 12Z and ECM follow it.... if it does i think i may just book my ticket on the Siberian express.....

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Well hello gfs control 

 

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:air_kiss:

Edited by karlos1983

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morning all.

now i know what is being shown is a lot of days away but are we beginning to see part of the jigsaw fall in to place or is it going to continue to flip around like this past week?

fromey 

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And down they go. Let's hope next few runs follow suite! 

 

IMG_3707.GIF

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20 minutes ago, fromey said:

morning all.

now i know what is being shown is a lot of days away but are we beginning to see part of the jigsaw fall in to place or is it going to continue to flip around like this past week?

fromey 

There will probably be more model wobbles this way and the other but the trend appears to be encouraging for coldies.

Cautiously optimistic:yahoo:

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

As if by magic after Ian's comments......the gfs delivers the goods lol you couldn't make it up. What a corker 

 

 

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Yep stunning run at the end by GFS , Control followed suit also ....................just need Arsenal to win and its a decent start to the day

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10 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Yep stunning run at the end by GFS , Control followed suit also ....................just need Arsenal to win and its a decent start to the day

Indeed. Not confident though 

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Putting aside the GFS lower resolution output the pattern upto T240hrs looks agreed on with high pressure taking over after the wet and windy conditions over the weekend.

If theres to be any dramatic changes within that timeframe it will likely appear between T168 and T192hrs as that's the opening when heights start to increase between Greenland and Scandi. This brings us back to Singularitys post re the MJO and the suggestion by Mike Ventrice that the MJO won't fade but remain amplified.

Unless we do see more amplification added into the mix then its going to be difficult to advect anything much colder in terms of 850s from the east/ne although surface conditions are likely to cool once the Russian high subsides.

The ECM De Bilt ensembles are not really interested in bringing anything very cold to  that area but there is around 40% of solutions that take down temps to between 2 and 6 c,  the precip spikes increase late November and early into December suggestive that low pressure or troughing to the ne might show up.

Overall then barring the GFS later output nothing solid in terms of more widespread wintry conditions but keep an eye on that T168hrs timeframe incase the upstream pattern is more amplified than currently forecast.

 

 

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Still far too much volatility in the model output with wild swings from one set up to another, for me I think the majority of the U!K will see heights located close by to the UK with any precipitation mainly towards the South of the country. Nothing overly exciting is getting my juices flowing just yet but we are talking post ten days anyway.

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The GEFS 6z mean looks pretty damn good in early December and there is plenty of support from the 6z perturbations for the op run, including the control..it's a nice upgrade compared to yesterday!:cold-emoji: potentially it could be a snowy and frosty start to the new meteorological winter..fingers crossed:)

To rule it out or say it was certain would be very misleading but there is potential.

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Edited by Frosty.

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If the T+312 hrs chart came off I'd expect scenes like this across North Yorkshire. 

Leading up to T+216 hrs several days of settled weather with patchy fog and frost but crisp clear mornings away from eastern coasts.

And frost forming by Dusk. 

 

 

images-2.jpg

Edited by sorepaw1

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