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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Interesting reading from Ian, december still favoured for something decent or very decent - but a few hurdles to jump. If we jump these hurdles and land a big Freeze I'd pick December over any month - festive and long nights. I'm quite intrigued as to what happens with a potential SSW, get into a cold spell and bang one of these in the mix and who knows what could happen !! All good viewing, but you just know it won't be an easy route to Winter for us - rarely is!! 

 

And I wonder if the new ECM will let us see past 240 like the current one - hopefully so!!

Edited by Ali1977

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GFS out to 162 has the ridge angled slightly more SW /NE so we are dragging in what will probably feel like quite cold N/Easterly wind by next Friday. Uppers show this.

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS out to 162 has the ridge angled slightly more SW /NE so we are dragging in what will probably feel like quite cold N/Easterly wind by next Friday. Uppers show this.

Which is what N24 has just shown at 21:55

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Is it going to give us yet another possible solution and go for the Scandi high?

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

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4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Which is what N24 has just shown at 21:55

Missed that - cold and dull? 

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4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Is it going to give us yet another possible solution and go for the Scandi high?

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

It's trying hard, moving to the ENE at 198hrs.  Could get interesting this run?

gfsnh-0-198.png

Edited by Ice Day

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The Gfs 18z is showing  more snow showers on the way tomorrow across the west, mainly on hills and tomorrow night looks very frosty further north over the snow fields with further hill snow to come for Wales, the pennines and Scottish hills during the following few days which adds to the disruptive snow which occured this morning across parts of the northwest..and its still autumn!:D 

18_21_preciptype.png

18_36_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_36_preciptype.png

18_63_preciptype.png

18_84_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Is it going to give us yet another possible solution and go for the Scandi high?

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

The 12z para ECM ended with a scandi high 

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At least this op is having a go at dropping the Arctic high into the gap to our north

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 18z is showing  more snow showers on the way tomorrow across the west, mainly on hills and further hill snow to come for Wales, the pennines and Scottish hills during the following few days which adds to the disruptive snow which occured this morning across parts of the northwest..and its still autumn!:D 

Yes. Flakes of snow on my windscreen on the M4 corridor tonight at times, and only mid November. No sign of any warm up - can only see a general cooling trend into and through December. Exciting times ahead we hope.

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z para ECM ended with a scandi high 

Well at t240 I suppose it has one, of sorts

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

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Another run that becomes extremely messy  in fi

really seems an unlikely solution, given the way it evolves 

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Well its all very sloth like with changes only happening very slowly. The ECM and GFS are close in terms of overall pattern upto T240hrs. So we have a drier interlude after some very windy and wet weather. High pressure meanders around close to the UK, then an opportunity opens up as heights rise between Greenland and Scandi.

The issue at the moment is the reluctance to have blocking far enough north and aligned favourably to drive cold air in from the ne, so I think the juries out at the moment.

Once the Russian high departs the scene and stops pumping mild air into Europe then the surface should cool quickly even though the 850s might look on the mild side.

Overall the output is interesting but not delivering a clear route to anything properly wintry but could do so if things fall into place. We're not dealing with a PV on steroids and there are some good background signals but as yet the outputs haven't got their Santa hats on and are being a bit mean spirited!

 

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And at 240hrs gfs drops in a huge area of low pressure to the northwest that wasnt hinted at 6 or so hours ago???.granted the atmosphere is in a state of flux but scooby doo would be confused today!!!!:rofl:

Edited by swfc

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Another run that becomes extremely messy  in fi

really seems an unlikely solution, given the way it evolves 

But it ends with a broad pattern which reflects the eps day 15. 

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Arctic air incoming on 18z..a happy ending!:D

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png

h850t850eu (2).png

hgt500-1000.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Frosty.

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I cant help thinking we're heading to one of those boring dry, foggy, frosty Decembers. Cold but dry. Yawn!

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Yep, it end on a cold note...

gfsnh-0-384.png?18 gfs-1-384.png?18

But who's going to take any notice of that at this stage as it's been 52 different solutions in the last day alone.

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2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Yep, it end on a cold note...

gfsnh-0-384.png?18 gfs-1-384.png?18

But who's going to take any notice of that at this stage as it's been 52 different solutions in the last day alone.

yep and its sends the pv towards mongolia !!! haha 

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Well it's better (colder) than the Gfs 12z , especially at the end..lovely cold eye candy!

18_384_mslp850.png

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27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well its all very sloth like with changes only happening very slowly. The ECM and GFS are close in terms of overall pattern upto T240hrs. So we have a drier interlude after some very windy and wet weather. High pressure meanders around close to the UK, then an opportunity opens up as heights rise between Greenland and Scandi.

The issue at the moment is the reluctance to have blocking far enough north and aligned favourably to drive cold air in from the ne, so I think the juries out at the moment.

Once the Russian high departs the scene and stops pumping mild air into Europe then the surface should cool quickly even though the 850s might look on the mild side.

Overall the output is interesting but not delivering a clear route to anything properly wintry but could do so if things fall into place. We're not dealing with a PV on steroids and there are some good background signals but as yet the outputs haven't got their Santa hats on and are being a bit mean spirited!

 

It's been quite a sloth like pattern as you put it for quite a while in my opinion.ive found it quite hard to commentate the past couple of weeks, as it's really been a case of, "not quite sure of where what piece gooes where"  even though we have all the pieces to the jigsaw which is only a 10 piece set. 

Like you say Nick, once the Russian high does one, hopefully we can throw all the pieces in the air and they will just land in the right place.

all i can say, is chances are rife for the beginning of winter, especially in comparison to last years dross 

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19 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Give me that any day ' than a Soggy Mushy South Westerly with damp and dank heavy rain :yahoo:

Last December was actually quite pleasant. No central heating on (save money) and in central Bristol on 17 Dec at midnight and a luverly 15c - balmy!

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GFS 18z ensembles are different to previous sets. Few West based -NAO or with the high sinking SE with trough generally better defined and further West so in that sense they are better and perhaps more reflective of  ECM ensembles?

Talking of which, here are London 12z set. Inconclusive but the odd very cold run showing up and a small cluster going for a cold early Dec

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edited by Mucka

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