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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Para ec46 in and it's colder than the op

uk looks to be surface cold throughout December - the last week around the new year shows an easing off but that's the far range of the product

broadly aligned with the op but low sceuro anomoly closer to us which keeps us cooler. 

Surface cold doesn't shout snow , more cold and stagnant type weather. Better that blowing a gale from the SW though and a few fronts here and there may bring the goods.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Recurring theme that there doesn't seem to be any cold uppers on these runs.

Due to the big Russian block which has kept us generally in a warm continental flow.  With the recent trends for this to recede, the opportunity seems to be opening for troughing to drop into Europe and, with it, colder uppers that we could tap into down the line. 

The +240 ECM shows this well, the real cold uppers would be on their way (considering it's not Dec yet).

 ecm500.240.png ecmt850.240.png

 

The caveat being of course that, as ever, this is FI at such a range. 

Edited by weatherguy
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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Surface cold doesn't shout snow , more cold and stagnant type weather. Better that blowing a gale from the SW though and a few fronts here and there may bring the goods.

I've always thought myself that this winter may be more of the 'colder and drier' variety than snowmageddon. If I'm right though it'll be more through luck than ability.

Current GFS run has the second low on Monday stronger than before and a bit slower to decay...

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

Also the ridge in the Atlantic nudging a bit further North into Greenland. Minor differences so far at this stage.

Edited by Ravelin
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1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

I've always thought myself that this winter may be more of the 'colder and direr' variety than snowmageddon. If I'm right though it'll be more luck than ability.

Current GFS run has the second low on Monday stronger than before...

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

Also the ridge in the Atlantic nudging a bit further North into Greenland. Minor differences so far at this stage.

yes, but after the past 3 winters, any snow would be 'snowmageddan' for this area

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5 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I've always thought myself that this winter may be more of the 'colder and direr' variety than snowmageddon. If I'm right though it'll be more luck than ability.

 

You might be right - but if we get a negative NAO combined with a negative AO, the chances that deep cold air will find its way towards are much higher than with just a standard block in the atlantic and a positive AO.:) 

Edited by beng
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Snowy morning for some on Sunday? More especially those further North with some height.

Elevated parts of Sheffield will be glad it is not a work morning no doubt.

aromehd-42-42-0.png?18-17

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+129 current run on left, against the last GFS run.  The residual low seems to hold its ground moreso.  Could be beneficial to maintain a wedge of HP further north as the run progresses. 

h500slp.pngh500slp.png

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I NEVER POSTED NO UPPER COLD

its amazing how one persons interpretation of a post can become fact!

For the record, December doesn't look particularly dry on the para aside from a couple of weeks nw Scotland and week approaching xmas w uk 

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That warm pool though...All brought about because of a poorly aligned/positioned Russian HP. 

h850t850eu.png

Going to have to grit our teeth through this one.

Edited by CreweCold
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I NEVER POSTED NO UPPER COLD

its amazing how one persons interpretation of a post can become fact!

For the record, December doesn't look particularly dry on the para aside from a couple of weeks nw Scotland and week approaching xmas w uk 

Good thing the Daily Express didn't read what you wrote :D

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I NEVER POSTED NO UPPER COLD

its amazing how one persons interpretation of a post can become fact!

For the record, December doesn't look particularly dry on the para aside from a couple of weeks nw Scotland and week approaching xmas w uk 

 

Sounds like broad-scale block to NW with NE feed for England slowly declining through month.

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Well the wsi tweeted slp profile for mid Dec isn't far away from what the model shows 

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All systems go at 174 hrs. We have the pebble shaped block, primed for retrogression...energy disrupting against the western periphery of block

gfs-0-174.png?12

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We are approaching December now, really don't understand all this worry about the cold uppers. If we get a sustained flow from the N/NE/E...it WILL turn cold enough for slow regardless of the temperature of the air over Europe... Provided the flow is sustained of course

Edited by Zakos
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The GFS is slightly amusing, oddly because the high gets further north than the other models we do introduce a warm sector from the south east as fronts push through the UK from the continent.

gfs-0-144.png?12

144-582UK.GIF?18-12

Double figures off an easterly in late November, certainly an oddity there if it came off. Still this doesn't last long as the mild air from the continent is quickly mixed out.

The UKMO has the high pretty close to the UK, much closer than the GFS 

UW144-21.GIF?18-17

So light winds and frost/fog away from the far south where there might still be the risk of rain plus a stiff easterly wind. Week 2 looks very interesting regardless with a decent chance of a cut off high around or just north of the UK, a good starting block to develop a more wintry solution down the line.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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7 minutes ago, Zakos said:

We are approaching December now, really don't understand all this worry about the cold uppers. If we get a sustained flow from the N/NE/E...it WILL turn cold enough for snow regardless of the temperature of the air over Europe... Provided the flow is sustained of course

Fully agreed I would be more worried if the models were showing mild but happy to report they are not. :D

Edited by Frosty.
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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All systems go at 174 hrs. We have the pebble shaped block, primed for retrogression...energy disrupting against the western periphery of block

gfs-0-174.png?12

Yeah but GFS keeps aiming and cocking the trigger before dropping the gun and collapsing into tears like a badly written heroine in a film noir.

 

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yeah but GFS keeps aiming and cocking the trigger before dropping the gun and collapsing into tears like a badly written heroine in a film noir.

 

Getting that deep troughing down into E Scandi/Russia/NE Europe is a major part of the jigsaw going forward

gfsnh-0-210.png?12

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This is by far a more complicated pattern on the GFS 12z. More energy placed over Greenland @ 216h than there was on 06z run. I would be very surprised to see a strong block form in FI with this run tbh (note that does not mean a block of sorts wont form

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah but GFS keeps aiming and cocking the trigger before dropping the gun and collapsing into tears like a badly written heroine in a film noir.

 

It didn't yesterday, it pulled the trigger several times, yesterday's 12z showed a very cold loaded start to winter.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Getting that deep troughing down into E Scandi/Russia/NE Europe is a major part of the jigsaw going forward

gfsnh-0-210.png?12

Yeah for sure but we need to clear the shortwave energy from SW Greenland and for it to phase with the trough so heights are squeezed West rather than forced East if we want cold to come sooner rather than later.

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8 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

This is by far a more complicated pattern on the GFS 12z. More energy placed over Greenland @ 216h than there was on 06z run. I would be very surprised to see a strong block form in FI with this run tbh (note that does not mean a block of sorts wont form

All a bit of a mess....

gfsnh-0-228.png?12

From this, you'd think an easterly was likely with the troughing advecting the cold air under the block eventually. However, as we've heard from bluearmy earlier today, this idea is not even on the table as far as the EC goes

Haha after all that, the high sinks into SE Europe

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

Edited by CreweCold

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23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah for sure but we need to clear the shortwave energy from SW Greenland and for it to phase with the trough so heights are squeezed West rather than forced East if we want cold to come sooner rather than later.

I think we would be very unlucky if we got to say the day 7/8 solution from the GFS and not see a cold spell, that low over Greenland isn't the end of the world if an area of low heights drops south from the Arctic into Russia as the high could still build nearer to Scandinavia and set up a cold east/north easterly rather than a northerly from a Greenland high, the GFS 12z is fairly similar to the ECM solution this morning.

gfs-0-228.png?12   ECM1-240.GIF?18-12

Anyway we are playing around with  a developing blocked pattern over the US and Atlantic, the models are certainly toying with several solutions, many of them might end up cold/very cold for the UK.

The GEM is in a similar ball park as the above

gem-0-228.png?12

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
Edited to use GEM chart for the time period.
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2 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

ECM Week 4 cluster analysis.

 

Cluster 3 is the one we're after....Otherwise we'd all have to descend upon the eastern tip of Kent to get a sniff of a snow chance!

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