Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyone got the timetable for the paywall models such as GLOSEA and EC monthly etc? The mid to end Nov period hinted at a colder spell with these models, I'm hoping this is still the case and signals aren't fading. Personally I think today's models were v good, the longer that PV stays subdued the better chance we have of a decent cold spell or two.

It's a concern that some of the long range models are starting to drop like flies after a very promising update last month with them. CFS has flipped pretty majorly to a massive +NAO with all 3 winter months looking above average. What we don't want to see is the GLOSEA update and EC seasonal flip to reflect this....Once the seasonal models get into agreement over +NAO winter conditions they very very rarely back away from it and it usually ends up being the scenario that plays out.

CFS monthly means are here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Edited November 5, 2016 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

New EC32 is tuesday I understand.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Some interesting interplay between the +ve hts over N.Russia,the Greenland vortex and the Atlantic  high which are squeezing an upper trough south east into Europe.

ECM T96hrs

Looking through the gefs stamps from Friday and the following 2/3 days it's apparent that the trough becomes slow moving and some members are indeed showing a cyclonic easterly as the low over the near continent persists into next week end.

Compare     T144hrs                                                          T192hrs

 

so with little push from the Atlantic jet there's every chance of the cold upper trough becoming slow moving with the boundary of the cold to the north east remaining within reach.We can see how close that cold is at T144hrs on the ECM

A step back from the Atlantic pushing through and i guess with the weakened state of the PV further changes could well be in the offing.

 

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's a concern that some of the long range models are starting to drop like flies after a very promising update last month with them. CFS has flipped pretty majorly to a massive +NAO with all 3 winter months looking above average. What we don't want to see is the GLOSEA update and EC seasonal flip to reflect this....Once the seasonal models get into agreement over +NAO winter conditions they very very rarely back away from it and it usually ends up being the scenario that plays out.

CFS monthly means are here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Agreed if GLOSEA and EC flip, however I'd definately discard anything that the CFS is saying - if it is correct it's more by luck that meteorological greatness !!

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's a concern that some of the long range models are starting to drop like flies after a very promising update last month with them. CFS has flipped pretty majorly to a massive +NAO with all 3 winter months looking above average. What we don't want to see is the GLOSEA update and EC seasonal flip to reflect this....Once the seasonal models get into agreement over +NAO winter conditions they very very rarely back away from it and it usually ends up being the scenario that plays out.

CFS monthly means are here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

In their October update for November, I didn't see a solitary model that captured this cold anomaly.

Fair enough, the projection is only to mid month but the positive temp anomalies would need to be huge to get an end of month figure even close to the swathe of warmth the long rangers predicted.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ens mean goes with a changeable generally nw / se aligned jet with ebb and flow of the Azores / atlantic high vs lower heights to the northwest  / north after the current northerly expires. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Very bizarre goings on with the ECM which clutched victory from the jaws of defeat with its reputation recovering somewhat as the GFS and UKMO have moved towards its more amplified eastern USA pattern. Then it loses the plot completely and clean through on goal hoofs the ball into the stands!

I wouldn't be surprised to see the pattern backed even further west with the Scandi high more in play, these set ups are often finely balanced. The key is the pattern in the eastern USA because we need that to help direct energy more se'wards by amplifying further. There is an opportunity around the T144hrs to see something more interesting , we need a stronger ridge pushing west over the top of low pressure to the west of Iceland.

It might be a case of close but no cigar this time but not impossible given the volatile nature of the output.

[Frost HoIIow]

In these situations the models often underestimate blocks to our east and/or cold hanging on in western Europe like the UK. We don't have the default westerly pattern and haven't for what seems a long while now. Even though some of the models bring in more of a westerly flow later this week, it is still far from a zonal battering like we usually get in November and if anything these west winds look temporary with a more continental influence pushing the milder air further west. I think there is lots to be optimistic about over the coming weeks and months. There is something different going on compared to the last 3 years at the very least. Let's hope we get a very decent Winter

 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Whether Idle]

If nothing else the colder weather is cooling our seas - which can only help the situation come early winter.  Meanwhile the 18z GFS op rolls out, only minor differences so far.

[Scandinavian High.]

12z runs looks like  Scandinavia high is winning the battle GFS-ECM lots of twists and turns to come..

[Mucka]

GFS 18z close to linking the ridges.

A lot will depend on whether the lows upstream phase or stay as separate entities. If they merge the pattern (Atlantic ridge) will be flatter (through this specific period anyway)

ECM was a bit surprising, it seems to be bouncing from one extreme FI to another but they key period is through the mid term where there is a lot going on.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Mucka

[Froze were the Days]

51 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Agreed if GLOSEA and EC flip, however I'd definately discard anything that the CFS is saying - if it is correct it's more by luck that meteorological greatness !!

Well the CFS 0z(9 monthly) run which I've been following since the start of October has been pretty accurate for the last month and the beginning of November, just tentative signs of more zonal conditions mid to late November, December fairly zonal with Euro HP close at times.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Froze were the Days
Spelling mistake

[northwestsnow]

Like the look of the 18 z so far- the Scandy high is not leaving the stage in a hurry!!

And there is some very cold air flodding south on the eastern flank of it.

Edited November 5, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the CFS 0z(9 monthly) run which I've been following since the start of October has been pretty accurate for the last month and the beginning of November, just tentaive signs of more zonal conditions mid to late November, December fairly zonal with Euro HP close at times.

 

Yep, and the depth of its forecast +NAO is worrying. Would be a mild old 3 month period should it come to fruition. I hope very much that it doesn't!

On to the 18z GFS...you can clearly see that shortwave feature which interrupts the Azores-Scandi link up...

[Frosty.]

Well it's looking chilly for most of the week ahead according to the Gfs 18z with maxima of 6/7/8c and overnight frosts but slowly temperatures creeping up across the southwest and then south, but only to 9/10/11c and there is also some unsettled weather at times too.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Thats some anticylone across NW Russia on the 18z, and the cold pool is actually growing all the time down its eastern flank..

1045mb.

Edited November 5, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

Further into low res on the Gfs 18z we are looking to the northwest for our weather as it shows increasingly  polar maritime influence with showers turning wintry on northern hills and a return of night frosts with daytime temps dipping below average.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Really interesting stuff , the duel between that high and the Atlantic looks finely poised. 18z would produce a real mix possibly inc some wintry stuff in the North.

 

[cornish snow]

27 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the CFS 0z(9 monthly) run which I've been following since the start of October has been pretty accurate for the last month and the beginning of November, just tentative signs of more zonal conditions mid to late November, December fairly zonal with Euro HP close at times.

Tbf,Darwin,my pet Bearded Dragon could give a forecast of Dec being fairly Zonal with Hp close at times.Hardly sticking one's neck out.Tomorrow i'm likely to go to the little boys roomCourse it probably is,just like every other month.

[fergieweather]

6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

My oh my ... Did that UKMO rum just happen? It's very nearly back to those boom charts from the ECM earlier in the week!! T72 - disruption about to happen but much nearer the uk. T96 - resultant surface trough straight through the UK. T120 - trough clears to a renewed easterly. T144 - fresh disruption in the Atlantic again, no westerlies get in!!

UKMO-GM 12z accepted only to T+108. But net result for Weds remains (as per last 24hr forecast cycle) the risk of snow from Pennines northwards, with much lower risk for uplands further south, such as Chilterns.

[coldwinter]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Really interesting stuff , the duel between that high and the Atlantic looks finely poised. 18z would produce a real mix possibly inc some wintry stuff in the North.

 

Certainly nothing mild showing on the models at the moment!

Edited November 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime
Snipped off topic part.

[ITSY]

Evening all. Too tired to post anything of detail tonight, but a quick look through the 18Z postage stamps from the GEFS suite makes for interesting viewing. Including the control, about 2/3rds of the ensembles in low res raise height to our NW towards Greenland - albeit with only varying degrees of affects on our shores. If we cast our minds to the EC, Meto, and GloSea5 predictions for late Nov and early Dec, the signs could certainly be there. I think the next week is a question of patience and waiting to see what, if anything, of interest to coldies appears in low res. My increasing concern is the NAO forecast which is meant to turn significantly positive in the coming days and weeks, which would suggest quite the contrary to what is by now an outdated forecast from the computers just mentioned. Ian best place to update us, but I'd be casting my eye further down the line rather than chase anything next week - unless you live in the sweet spots of N/NE England and Scotland. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by ITSY

[blizzard81]

What I love about all this so far is that this is not your run of the mill British Autumn. The crispy leaves underfoot remind me of my childhood days of the late 70's/early 80's. The models all look very positive with regards to below average temps but I do worry about how stead fast this will be as we enter into Winter proper.

Edited November 5, 2016 by blizzard81

[fergieweather]

13 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Certainly nothing mild showing on the models at the moment! Could be seeing some squirrels falling by the wayside! 

Hmmm. A brave shout... if based on ensembles post-Weds, albeit admittedly 'mild' shouldn't be confused with 'average'. The uncertainty remains stark, based on 12z output: the last few days have merely moved our confidence levels along one day at a time. And this incremental improvement in medium range reliability may continue for a while... 

[snowblizzard]

Yes, as Ian says, there's much uncertainty regards model output & future pattern!

Although, generally looking much better overall than the last few Autumn to Winter periods - which is encouraging!

Perhaps, a tad too early really.

Shame  it's not January/February time when UK & Western Europe could really benefit from a relatively weak disorganised vortex, blocking & a more wintry NH set-up.

Slightly frustrating!

But, let's hope for the best.