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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Very nice ECM this morning but i'm already wary of its habit of over amplifying things mid term so i will ignore it for now, GFS much flatter, i know which one i would prefer with the former building heights to the north west very nicely! :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, kumquat said:

72 to 96 on the ECM is interesting in that it's such a turnaround of weather type in a short space of time for certain regions:

ECM 72 hrs

ECH1-72.GIF

ECM 96 hrs

ECH1-96.GIF

The closure and filling of the Scandi high's influence might usher in more of a rainy windy Autumn pattern for a while. What would nearly be an exciting undercut for colder uppers if we were in those synoptics merges into mush and our excitement might fade ...for a while...

Let's hope for a return of the MOC

 

 

Posted my thoughts for the month in Nov CET.  Lets just say I'm really liking what I see.  The Scandi HP plays its part but just holds and relaxes not controls.  I have a displaced PV episode then heights developing to our NW.  I think CET punt is much too high.  

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Posted my thoughts for the month in Nov CET.  Lets just say I'm really liking what I see.  The Scandi HP plays its part but just holds and relaxes not controls.  I have a displaced PV episode then heights developing to our NW.  I think CET punt is much too high.  

 

BFTP

Well I nearly fell out of bed when I looked at this morning's ECM. I originally thought my CET guesstimate was a little on the cool side,  but like you I'm now thinking it'll be way too warm. Even on the GFS the UK appears to be on the cooler side of the 0C 850hPA line more often than not. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
5 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Well I nearly fell out of bed when I looked at this morning's ECM. I originally thought my CET guesstimate was a little on the cool side,  but like you I'm now thinking it'll be way too warm. Even on the GFS the UK appears to be on the cooler side of the 0C 850hPA line more often than not. 

Yes, there definitely is more of a compromise adjustment rather than a correction from one set of models to another.  Could be a good late autumn month this

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Good morning gang ,I took a day mostly away from the charts yesterday  came back this morning and quite a change on the further outlook .

Plenty of firming up before we reach the Last couple of predicted charts from ECM but with the signals that were there several days ago i see no reason that mid November could become blocked again .Tonights runs really need to reflect that i feel .so will tonight deliver , Behind the sofa for me ,catch you all up later ,:cold::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Another ECM over amped op run incoming this morning; it really does struggle D7-10 when LP v HP battles ensue. As with the last fail this is a case where the ECM op has limited support within its ensembles, and the GEFS are toying with it in low numbers at present, so again the less likely outcome at this point in time (usual caveats).

The D10 ECM mean for example: EDM1-240 (2).gif

GEM and GFS more Atlantic dominated at that date: 

gfs-0-240.pnggem-0-240 (2).png

As in usual cases like this I look for something in between, but in this instance I suspect that the PV is beginning to hint at getting its act together (temporary or not) so more typical November fare, though not a full on zonal onslaught just yet if at all, as this year is rather unprecedented so no confidence in post D7 charts for the present.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Cheers @johnholmes @knocker And @Nouska I've not been on here since I posed the question about that tropical feature in the Atlantic yesterday. Fascinating read through your various posts yesterday/today. 

Cheers:hi:

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Whilst I don't buy the ECM this morning, I wouldn't discount it. It ties in with some professional forecasts for mid month and beyond and it's still a very good model..It won't be wrong all the time!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ECM is too amplified wrt it's ens. The pros will tell us that it does not have an amplification bias but we know that it does in the same way that GFS has a flat bias.  However, the Eps against the GEFS at day 10 are quite different in respect of the Atlantic ridge and greeny anomolys. The GFS look to be continuing the theme from yesterday whereas the eps seem to be sniffing a new solution.  Stewart did post yesterday that the models may be over reacting to a rum signal in the Pacific so their could be an explanation for the eps to be evolving a little differently today. I would say that anyone making broad predictions today for mid month and beyond should perhaps wait for a few runs. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

When looking at this mornings charts  (ecm mean & gfs) you do wonder what all the fuss was about. They look very normal, dare I say zonal!

I agree with Nick on the ECM it's been poor. The gfs is right on the money yet gets slated quite regularly for being too progressive.

On a positive note the Met seem to be predicting a more blocked end to Nov.

Here's hoping that happens

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

id say 50/50 on ecm solution but my gut feeling says that the pv possibly on the move big sustained heights over north americas 0 solar output including 1/3 solar flux.

vortex still nowhere on par with recent years most certainly not a done deal gem to although unsettled it does look like vortex on the move from its normal home.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

When looking at this mornings charts  (ecm mean & gfs) you do wonder what all the fuss was about. They look very normal, dare I say zonal!

I agree with Nick on the ECM it's been poor. The gfs is right on the money yet gets slated quite regularly for being too progressive.

On a positive note the Met seem to be predicting a more blocked end to Nov.

Here's hoping that happens

ECM1-240 (1).gif i think this chart would suggest below normal and much better for cold build up.

 

the gem looks messy but its worth looking at the possibilities 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

 

So a bit of a rollercoaster couple of days - I havent read many posts on here however I may have seen / scanned the odd comment about the GFS winning lol?

Here is todays 96, on the ECM

with the sliding energy slap bang over southern UK

IMG_8982.PNG

& below just for ref the big 3 charts from Thurs 00z 144 - in rank order 

ECM great 9/10

IMG_8984.PNG

UKMO - not bad -- 8-10 slight location issue of the energy dropping south but generally good

IMG_8987.PNG

GFS - poor 4-10 no resolution of energy splitting

IMG_8986.PNG

Also of note ( if anyone does read my posts ) is that the prognosis now sees lower heights in the NE flow & lower heights over europe in general- circa 8 DAM- something I did comment on as an expectation- 

Anyway...

so where the ECM failed perhaps, is it continuation of the blocking in the mid term being that for a day or 2 we do see a push from the atlantic to gain an element of control - will it win?

This chart below is a the reason why we are getting run after run of blocked suites-

IMG_8983.PNG

- assuming the ECM is observing + forecasting similar trending then we should feel some confidence it is delivering.

The zonal mean is dropping towards negative territory which is very close on a reversal of winds along 60N- The easy way to think of this in laymens terms is remember your nans old washing mashine when it was on the final spin cycle - the drum inside used to go bananas spinning the water off- well thats the type of circulation we would expect from the zonal wind in October / November - running about 25 Meters per second - supporting the Eastward movement of Low pressures & generating a very zonal storm track.

This year - we are on spin 'delay' - The forecast is heading down to 0 M/S - this will have a massive impact on the storm tracks - they will not go east, but bend & recurve North or south close to High pressures.

With that will come a lot more periods of WAA into the pole & CAA into the mid lattitudes-  Metrics like the PNA / NAO / POL will swing to high values because of the differentials in pressure.

So whilst the ECM may be crazy on some occasions - Expect the dice to be loaded towards our double 6 for some time to come....

 

S

 

 

Steve you think there will be any more surprises with this slider at 96 hours!!cos since yesterdays 00z runs it seems to have backed west again on each run since!!big cold pool aswell just to the east off the uk!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Let's hold fire Steve until this evenings runs. I don't have time right now to post charts backing up the gfs. I will ask one question though.....why is the ECM mean much more like the gfs than it's own operational?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
39 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

When looking at this mornings charts  (ecm mean & gfs) you do wonder what all the fuss was about. They look very normal, dare I say zonal!

I agree with Nick on the ECM it's been poor. The gfs is right on the money yet gets slated quite regularly for being too progressive.

On a positive note the Met seem to be predicting a more blocked end to Nov.

Here's hoping that happens

I don't think the ECM has been poor at all, it was right to build heights over Scandinavia, unfortunately all models reverted away from having that blocking affecting the UK weather but it was correctly forecast and as Mucka's post alluded to yesterday, the GFS has certainly not been performing as well as people think.

Regarding the ECM run it shows nothing is ever set in stone but the projected height rises does not excite me, I would love too see a true amplification into Greenland like that without a shortwave ruining that but its a hard task these days and besides at that range, it would not surprise me if the next run is flatter.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Let's hold fire Steve until this evenings runs. I don't have time right now to post charts backing up the gfs. I will ask one question though.....why is the ECM mean much more like the gfs than it's own operational?

ECM operational is run at much higher resolution, the GFS operational and perturbations all run at the same lower resultion

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is turning into one of those z list celebrities , desperate for attention but not having done much to warrant that. It's recent form has been poor and relegation beckons!

In a nutshell today's model differences are down to how they handle the pattern in the eastern USA. The ECM amplifies that, the GFS isn't interested , the UKMO at T144 hrs looks to be a halfway house solution going forward.

I think it's a case of wait and see, not saying the ECM is definitely wrong but it needs to start repairing it's damaged reputation .

Fingers crossed we see some sort of amplification in the Atlantic ala ECM Nick, i get the collywobbles when i see signs of the PV setting up to our North west at this time of year...

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Siberian high that forms from the current block has quite a bit to do with what will happen next week, the stronger and bigger that is the better chance it'll have linking with any WAA or height over the pole. Early doors on this run but it already looks like a slight upgrade in that sense. If I'm correct in my thinking that is.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

So another negative month and we could be heading for a mega cold winter ,is what steve is alluring tooiI think,lets see what happens :)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

All I can say ref gfs v ECM, is the gfs churns out 4 times per day and it's like putting your hands in to the FA cup bag and picking out a ball, different every time. The ECM is usually pretty consistent. The 18z gfs is Called the pub run for a reason, the 06z gfs labelled as always being to progressive. Although I watch every single run, because that's what we do here. Anyway the verification stats say it all, and the ECM is and has been for sometime,  top dog! 

 

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