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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Slight westward correction again on the pub run, keeps us in colder air till Atleast Thurs - flow looks slightly more NW too. 

IMG_3433.PNG

yes, and even more noticeable at +144

h500slp.pngh500slp.png

Thats quite a large difference at just 144 hours out.

GFS continuing to underestimate the heights over the Scandinavia/Svalbard region.

Edited by Zakos
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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

why are they? its only 36 hours since folk were touting a white xmas and epic snow on a ecm run in november? look know further than 7 days  it saves a lot of grief!!!

I want to to believe what blizzard81 was saying and it is backed up by many factors . However as we saw from last night and then today so much can change quickly for our small island. Fingers crossed we throw a double 6 for the end of November / December .

 

Can I just thank those who contribute in here that are far above any of my knowledge in here . John , Tamara , Steve , Lorenzo, Mucka and Knocker to name a few . And knocker I noticed in the spring to early summer period you stated you will not post in here during the winter period .Please can I request that you carry on as it is very imformative and different approach. And yes I'm starting to like your style of approach on occasions .:)

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Id bank this run all day long, look at the 192-240, the Siberian high ridging ever closer to the pole - 556dam heights.

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The anomalies tonight are not looking at any significant changes in the next 14 days. The 6-10 are in pretty good agreement on the overall upper air pattern

Aleutian low, ridging eastern N. America (continuing WAA). and vortex Canada/Greenland with associated troughs running south and east to Scandinavian trough and the Azores HP ridging to the SW of the UK. All this boils down to strong upper flow across the Atlantic which is from the NW quadrant over the UK. This would portend some quite unsettled weather, more particularly for the north, as systems swing around the HP, whilst the south more inclined to be under the influence of the Latter. Temps around average.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.png

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

There are a few changes to the overall pattern as we move forward although no complete agreement between the models which is not a total surprise.. The Aleutian low is gone and also to some extent the western Atlantic trough. A flatter pattern in the Atlantic with some suggestion of retrogression of the HP by the EPS and the Scandinavian trough more negatively tilted- Iceland thus the upper flow backing a tad to westerly. So weather remaining unsettled over the UK with temps still around average but given the volatility caution really advised for this period.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Id bank this run all day long, look at the 192-240, the Siberian high ridging ever closer to the pole - 556dam heights.

Oh dear t192 to T240. Deep FI which will be totally different next run.

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NOAA tonight for mid-month, heights stay west, tendency for troughing to stay towards central Europe - though the short-term jackpot easterly looks out of reach, the overall long-term picture stays the same as for many days - flow to remain north of west and likely that mild spurts will be of shorter length than could be normally expected.

Edit: ah, Knocker I see you've beaten me to it. Yes I can subscribe to the idea of average, but I'd say tending cooler if in any direction.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Outside chance of a link up between Canadian and siberiab high and a brutal Easterly here.

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5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Oh dear t192 to T240. Deep FI which will be totally different next run.

The Met office look 4 weeks + ahead so 10 days is nothing..anyway, the models have improved since the 00z in terms of cold potential longer term and of course the incoming cold this weekend and early next week which I shall enjoy.:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Oh dear t192 to T240. Deep FI which will be totally different next run.

The Atlantic heights and Euro Trough have been pretty consistent on the Ens run much further into FI lately.

 

A near cream logo showing late on - 3 wave pattern.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Still some quite major adjustments on the models tonight - all in favour of mid to long term cold :)

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A near cream logo showing late on - 3 wave pattern.

This?

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

This?

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

Yes, I don't know whether you ever went to cream - the best club in the country at the time in mid 90's -  the logo looked similar, thats a stonking NH pattern, barimng in mind what time of year it is, I set a challenge to anyone, find a better one on the same day (20th Nov) in any year.

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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Atlantic heights and Euro Trough have been pretty consistent on the Ens run much further into FI lately.

 

A near cream logo showing late on - 3 wave pattern.

Yes, it is a pattern also shown on the JMA monthly update today.

bada2ad04f88e25ed6bbdf0f403f3483.png

In the nearer term, small adjustments with the ridge, trough scenario will cause difficulty in modelling precisely for our small patch.

4f1858b56ec7e7102b830716990ede7e.png

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4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

 .Yes, it is a pattern also shown on the JMA monthly update today.

bada2ad04f88e25ed6bbdf0f403f3483.png

In the nearer term, small adjustments with the ridge, trough scenario will cause difficulty in modelling precisely for our small patch.

4f1858b56ec7e7102b830716990ede7e.png

Yes sweetheart,  GP has also called this a while ago.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes sweetheart,  GP has also called this a while ago.

From what I can see, most of the extended NWP is now converging on the same scenario for just after mid month. The last few GFS runs have produced near identical finales.

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72 to 96 on the ECM is interesting in that it's such a turnaround of weather type in a short space of time for certain regions:

ECM 72 hrs

ECH1-72.GIF

ECM 96 hrs

ECH1-96.GIF

The closure and filling of the Scandi high's influence might usher in more of a rainy windy Autumn pattern for a while. What would nearly be an exciting undercut for colder uppers if we were in those synoptics merges into mush and our excitement might fade ...for a while...

Let's hope for a return of the MOC

 

 

Edited by kumquat
ready brek
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Oh dear t192 to T240. Deep FI which will be totally different next run.

Of course it could be different in the next run at that range but I think today's runs shows that whilst the UK will get the Atlantic influence quicker than many perhaps first thought or liked, the idea of blocking in some part is still there, its perhaps ashame its looks like its not going to affect the UK's weather unlike it showed on yesterday's runs however you can't fully rule out that it perhaps could in the near future.

That said, the cold over Scandi and parts of Russia is forecast to ease up and I just wonder if its now best to let the blocking ease, let the PV form over the Arctic, get some typical November Atlantic weather and wait during the winter months for something more cold and snowy. I will probably be in the minority with that thought though!

 

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The weekend

With the low now over the North Sea a  cold N/NE airstream will prevail and could touch gale force in the east. Showers, often wintry and of snow in the Scottish mountains and briefly high ground in the north, but these mainly concentrated around the north and eastern coasts of Scotland, eastern coast of N. England (may push a little further south),  and the west coast of Ireland, Wales and over Cornwall. (hope we don't get a Dangler). Tomorrow the showers will be more widespread and temps are obviosly suppressed below average.

1hourprecip_d02_19.png1hourprecip_d02_25.png1hourprecip_d02_49.png

accumprecip_d02_25.pngtemperature_d02_18.png

I'm not going to spend too much time analyzing this morning's GFS as fundamentally nothing has changed although it's not without interest. The cold air we are currently experiencing will hang around until Wednesday when fronts arriving from the west will bring rain to all and less cool air with temps nudging average for the time of year. These fronts are in fact associated with the tropical system noted by Karlos 1983 yesterday that tracks north, is absorbed by the cold low from the eastern seaboard and is subject to cyclogenesis as it tracks NE on the jet. It is then absorbed within the Greenland trough which stretches south east to the UK. It looks a bit like this if it's of any interest

gfs_z500a_natl_12.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_12.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.png

gfs_z500a_natl_16.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_17.png

Thereafter we see a familiar pattern with the interplay between the Azores HP and the trouph(s) from the NW with the HP initially in the ascendancy and then the trough.

gfs_z500a_natl_38.png

Edited by knocker
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ECM has some interesting developments at T168 which will lead to some excitement. Is it right tho!!! Small changes have big implications. 

Edited by That ECM
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The GFS this morning is showing a cool N/W flow into the run.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM looks pretty cool too !!

IMG_3435.PNG

Nice looking chart. Much to be resolved around t144 to t168. Fun to watch it unfold.

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The difference (this morning) is that the ecm is going for another amplification surge around T210 with the Azores once again ridging NW into Greenland and the trough dropping SE over Norway/Denmark  Ergo colder air at the end of the run.

EDIT

The comment above would have been more accurate to say the trough dropping SE over the UK ( T186) before ending over Norway and Denmark

Edited by knocker
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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The difference (this morning) is that the ecm is going for another amplification surge around T210 with the Azores once again ridging NW into Greenland and the trough dropping SE over Norway/Denmark  Ergo colder air at the end of the run.

Absolutely Knocker, Again some big differences into wk2. I see another round of sporadic Model runs over the next few days..  

Edited by Polar Maritime
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