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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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So the first cold/snow outbreak for some this weekend-The highlands/N.Y Moors may get a surprise when they open the curtains over the weekend. Longer term the ECM 12z shows a cold WNW flow next Wednesday developing. Then by friday HP positions itself to the south allowing for a long not seen WSW milder flow. 

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11 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So it's looking like a brief mild interlude up to mid month then blocked pattern returning and looking to being on the cold side.:D

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Is that the CFS? Broad general agreement with GLOSEA5 then. A potentially very cold pattern showing there. I think back end of 12z GFS shows how the actual synoptics may look from what the anomaly charts are showing.

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Edited by CreweCold
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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is that the CFS? Broad general agreement with GLOSEA5 then. A potentially very cold pattern showing there. I think back end of 12z GFS shows how the actual synoptics may look from what the anomaly charts are showing.

gfsnh-0-384.png?12Yes cfs looking very interesting has we move mid November mild interlude then looks like back to cold .GLOSEA5 is in a agreement 

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1 hour ago, Nouska said:

I think that is more your or John's field when it comes to the geostrophic 'what entrance, what exit and the processes in between' physics. The diagram I posted was to show it is modelled to have tropical characteristics even though not immediately visible in the surface isobars.

Maybe the thetaE will show better what I mean.

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Indeed, cheers. Actually looking in detail at this evenings ecm surface evolution (can't post the charts) it shows clearly the tropical low declining and being absorbed within the cold low before tracking north and also the fronts bringing some wet weather into the UK late Tuesday are an offshoot of all of this.

Edited by knocker
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The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly cold weekend coming up, and not just cold but also showery and some of those showers turning wintry and with night frosts .. hooray:drunk:

And the cold air persists on mon / tues especially further east and even beyond that it stays chilly until a brief change to milder on Friday which is quickly chased away SE by colder NWly winds which lasts through the end of next week..The mild intrusion is blink or miss it! 

Quite a disturbed end to the run with a nw / se aligned jet which would mean polar / arctic air at times :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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The ECM day 10 looks great to me, I thought there would have been more comments - wouldn't take much WAA into Greeny and Ladrador to become something even better , and it looks like it's trying!!

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15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ECM day 10 looks great to me, I thought there would have been more comments - wouldn't take much WAA into Greeny and Ladrador to become something even better , and it looks like it's trying!!

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It is more in line with what I would expect through the mid term into FI than GFS with more trough disruption and energy heading SE than the flat jet GFS modeled this afternoon but that doesn't mean it's right.

Regardless of those details both models are looking at having a deep trough move from SW Greenland into N Europe/Scandinavia toward mid month even though they go about it in slightly different ways.

If that does prove to be the case then we will have to wait and see how effective any attempts at pushing heights toward Greenland become.

Could be a rinse repeat to what we see now or something better (or something worse :closedeyes:)

Edited by Mucka
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I wonder, if someone studied all historical cases of GFS and ECM modelling a Scandi High, how often it would turn out that GFS was wrong to blast it away but ECM was giving it too much ability to extend west toward the UK.

Seems to me that a Scandi High getting pushed into NW Asia a little and then hanging around waiting for a chance to get back west - while we in the U.K. Have to put up with Atlantic troughs becoming slow moving in our vicinity - might be a pretty safe bet when future standoffs arise.

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ive seen worse D10 charts than that ECM effort.... still no real sign of the PV getting its act together or setting up shop in its usual place...  sorry can post chart as pc is playing up... but if you get to look at the chart above the PV is all over the place... totally different to last year and the year before... i think its going to be a very up and down few weeks while things come together... but i just got a feeling things will come good and we will all see some action...

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Quite a big difference between the Ecm 00z / 12z @ T+240 hours:D

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So westerlys push in next week but high pressure remains high over  Scandinavia is this a sign what's to come later on. Or sudden shift in the models sooner rather then later on in the month.:) :cold:

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Looking further ahead, there is plenty of cold possibilities from the GEFS 12z perturbations .:cold-emoji:..The control run ending is peachy:santa-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.
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The amplification of the high pushing up in the Atlantic is interesting at the moment. With this pattern we can quickly change from a Milder based flow to very cold in days. Overall the colder scenario is gaining the upper hand. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues. If so it greatly increases the chances of wintryness.

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Considering the much talked about background signals and quiet excitement at the potential cold end to November/ Winter ahead, can anyone post a chart from the last 50/60 yrs from November that produced a country wide, low level snow event. The earlier the better.

Just a bit of Fun Mods hopefully you'll allow. 

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4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Considering the much talked about background signals and quiet excitement at the potential cold end to November/ Winter ahead, can anyone post a chart from the last 50/60 yrs from November that produced a country wide, low level snow event. The earlier the better.

Just a bit of Fun Mods hopefully you'll allow. 

Depends what you call country wide, in its truest definition, I cant find many (if any) that produced one in winter either, if your giving some allowances and lowering the threashold just a tiny bit, then I could post one from not all that many years ago.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

ECM eps beginning to reflect the GEFS (and indeed GFS ops)  back end week 2 in developing a broad nw European trough. 

Please don't take this too literally but Nov 2009 was notable in the way that the modelling counted down v consistently. to have eps and GEFS on the same page at day 15 (and the GEFS op too) is a fair start. 

now I have lit the blue touchpaper, I'll step away and not return to it!  

Are broad NE Euro troughs good for the coldies among us? If it were to happen of course?

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Are broad NE Euro troughs good for the coldies among us? If it were to happen of course?

A trough anywhere from France - Belgium - North sea is a good thing.

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18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are broad NE Euro troughs good for the coldies among us? If it were to happen of course?

There's a beautiful example of a retrogressive European trough from December 2010. Have a look at the archives and you can feel the cold by the sheer power of them charts. 

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Slight westward correction again on the pub run, keeps us in colder air till Atleast Thurs - flow looks slightly more NW too. 

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Edited by Ali1977
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3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

All the signs are pointing towards a potentially very cold last third of November.

why are they? its only 36 hours since folk were touting a white xmas and epic snow on a ecm run in november? look know further than 7 days  it saves a lot of grief!!!

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