Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

The solar activity is only very minor at this stage and hopefully a blip rather than the start of a trend. The sun has had a strange habit of temporarily waking up a bit at just the wrong moments in recent seasons... but surely that means nothing (imagine our weather patterns influencing the sun... hah!

 

The Sun the won wot won it.......heaven forbid and please by the mercy of all things icy and cold.........NOT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my opinion the measure of solar activity we should be paying most attention to is heavy cosmic ray influx, as per here:

 

https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

 

; where we are now, going by this, is rarely where we've been even at solar minimum of the cycles between  1965 and 2008, which is renarkable, as we're not even at minimum for this cycle yet.

As per model output, ECM ensembles are encouraging in that the vortex moves towards Siberia by day 10, and all which remains now is to get that high over continental Europe to be pushed South. GFS at day 16 has very few stamps maintaining this high, with quite a few (a majority) going for height- rises in the Greenland vicinity:

 

GFSPANELEU06_384_1.png  .

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

 Cfs/gefs.....

Let's not laugh at the cfs model just yet 'perhaps' !!!! €

cfs-0-696.png

gens-0-1-372.png

That's absolutely great!

Shame that it will (probably) be showing blowtorch southwesterlies on the next run - as it tends to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Just hope the sun doesn't get in on the act right now.

2012 surely cant happen again....  gulp. 29th November was an active day for sure. Fingers crossed it calms down again.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, swfc said:

Sunspot activity is virtually zero gp.Where do you see things going mid dec??? Thanks in advance

 

Not quite. 3 new regions in the last 3 days, and 15 flares yesterday..........I have no knowledge whatsoever of the specifics of solar impact, but 15 flares was more than double the rest of November put together, and the 3 new regions in 3 days compares to only 8 over the previous 28.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Some very good and thoughtful posts in here this morning. Also some of the other kind as well but everyone is entitled to their viewpoint.

I take the period beyond 15 days from others who have a better grasp of the meteorology post day 15 and much further.

To simply state the next 10-15 days has no indication, to me, using all I can get hold of, to suggest anything much different than that the upper ridge centre of gravity will end up somewhere SE/ESE of the UK. Thus the probability of 'deep' cold as opposed to surface cold is about nil. How cold the nights get is dependent on cloud cover and that is notoriously difficult to predict more than 12-24 hours ahead. Watching the visual satellite input and checking the 925 mb predicted wind pattern, along with the predicted skew-t's is as good a guide as any.

The NAEFS 500mb anomaly charts, and others, that go that far out, have some suggestion of the 500mb heights re adjusting to a position more favourable to deeper cold than out to day 15. To me, simple soul that I am, the 500mb anomaly charts I use, will need to be showing similar out to 14 days by about day 6 IF the NAEFS and other longer term outlook is to verify, or even show a position of the upper ridge in a more favourable position for genuine deep cold.

But as several others have commented the overall northern hemisphere upper air is a very different kettle of fish (if I may use that term?), than this time last year. Pretty much most LRF professional outputs, and the more thoughtful amateur, suggest colder than average for the first half of winter. So enjoy the ups and downs of each model run if that floats your boat but son't get too downhearted when they don't show what you hope for in far out periods.

 

Not been here for many many years.  I should really change my name as I have long since graduated :)   Nice to see this excellent post from Johnholmes, as always insightful. I wonder if TEITS still comes here.  The up's and down's of looking at the models is something that always happens here.  To echo what John says, those in the know do suggest colder than average for the first side of winter. Hold on to your hats folks :)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

That's absolutely great!

Shame that it will (probably) be showing blowtorch southwesterlies on the next run - as it tends to.

More likely to be anticyclonic when the time comes, indeed that goes for the short, medium and longer range across the southern half of the uk with a more unsettled blip across the north for a while next week before high pressure takes over nationwide..at least there should be plenty of frosts, some severe and fog, some of it freezing..like this morning and again tonight in the south!:)  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No talk of anything colder on the METO long range today, sounds more akin to high pressure sat over us for now.

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

No talk of anything colder on the METO lon range today, sounds more akin to high pressure sat over us for now.

And it will until Friday when the next 46 is available for inclusion 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And it will until Friday when the next 46 is available for inclusion 

Do they only update it weekly, the 16-30 day piece?  Makes sense I guess, lets hope Friday/Sat we see it change, along with the modelling of some better charts this side of FI towards the medium term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crikey i thought for a minute this was the ramping moaning thread ,but i clicked on the wrong site ,all could change this evening , thats what i like The chase for cold and snow synoptics ,great its winter tomorrow cheers:yahoo:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No talk of anything colder on the METO long range today, sounds more akin to high pressure sat over us for now.

Come on, and sorry for being off topic, but that is just wrong. It still talks of it being colder than average, just doesn't mention the 's' word.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No talk of anything colder on the METO long range today, sounds more akin to high pressure sat over us for now.

Agreed, it sounds like MLB reinforced by more MLB infinitum:crazy::D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well just to sum up how 2010 feeling this week has been we still have a hard frost in sheltered spots here. Was down to -5 which for Nov is exceptional!

The models will soon improve. This Winter has all the hallmarks of something special but a reset is looking likely into next week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, legritter said:

I must admit i am watching nearly every run of the charts , but i,v just talked myself into taking some breaks before high level block syndrome kicks in .Pretty sure though that the pros have information and data which points to some kind of block setting up in about 12/15 days time ,so untill we get to early next week i am taking a big deep breath ,getting out on the garden for some digging [ when its thawed out ] tidy up the fish pond [when its thawed out ] replacing the grit in our bin [ some ones taken it ] all isn,t lost gang ,great forum probably by far the best ,with many more weeks of winter to come 13 in all ,cheers gang ,:cold::snowman-emoji:

I don't have much blocking in my outlook....hopefully post it later. Displaced PV with pM and returning pM air towards mid month with another colder shot come Xmas.....but not arctic northern blocking and E or NE winds....MLB interludes more likely

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's funny really, this time last year and through most of the winter we didn't get a sniff of high pressure but we have gone from one extreme to the other and there is still no sign of an end to anticyclonic domination for the month ahead.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Come on, and sorry for being off topic, but that is just wrong. It still talks of it being colder than average, just doesn't mention the 's' word.

I should have worded it better, I meant colder than their recent updates and current type weather.  It does say colder than average agreed!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As others have mention the GEFS are continuing to ramp up their Amplification way into FI but the signal for such range is a good one.

gensnh-21-5-384.png

Bearing in mind this is what we're looking for and it just so happens to be displayed now things are looking good.

Yesterdays 12z

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Todays 6z

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif 

 

Note how more runs are flipping to the colder side of the mean with less going to the milder side. 

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will open a new thread in a few minutes guys ready for the afternoon runs so just hold off posting for a short while while i do the business.Ta

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok new thread here

so please continue over there as this one will be locked now. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×