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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Good and bad points from the GFS 18hrs run. The shortwave towards Iberia has trended towards the Euros. Bad points the Scandi shortwave is too far east and going in the wrong direction, this needs to head more sw at worst south.

The flow even at T168hrs is maintained from central Europe so if this brings in some clearer air then some sharp frosts look likely. It looks like a hard slog to get the colder air in terms of upper temps westwards. So far the best has been the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good and bad points from the GFS 18hrs run. The shortwave towards Iberia has trended towards the Euros. Bad points the Scandi shortwave is too far east and going in the wrong direction, this needs to head more sw at worst south.

The flow even at T168hrs is maintained from central Europe so if this brings in some clearer air then some sharp frosts look likely. It looks like a hard slog to get the colder air in terms of upper temps westwards. So far the best has been the UKMO.

looks a chilly week ( next ) coming

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

As you were this time next week, high pressure centred over N Sea, day maxima struggling with the flow off the near continent

IMG_0002.PNGIMG_0004.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bad points the Scandi shortwave is too far east and going in the wrong direction, this needs to head more sw at worst south.

 

I think this is precisely what Steve said the GFS would do. It simply cannoy resolve these type of issues correctly.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

In very blocked set ups as we have now, it often does well to refrain from model watching for a bit, as it takes a while for the models to firm up on a pattern change. Today being one of those days, where the models are really not showing much different to this time yesterday, albeit perhaps a swing to more energy perhaps transferring into the southern arm of the jet, and the chance of a more continental easterly drift, with the GFS as it often does keen to power up the northern arm. 

Sound like a broken record, but the key force is the aleutian high, and where it decides to position itself, as it is this feature that will impact on the degree of amplification we see, and hence either sink heights SE (quite possibly very temporarily though), or move the pattern east (keeping us on the mild side of the polar jet) or west (putting us on the colder side of the jet), ECM is suggesting the last scenario, GFS more the easterly scenario, longer range models, the first scenario, eventual sink SE, shortlived milder interlude.. colder thereafter, possibly a return to the here and now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Banbury said:

looks a chilly week ( next ) coming

Yes it could be worse but I'll be happy once we see some decent low heights developing over southern Europe. The high is okay for a seasonal feel and frost is certainly preferable to gales and rain but I think we want to see some concrete changes towards something that includes snow chances.

 

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

looks a chilly week ( next ) coming

im not to sure about that uppers of +4 or +6 would indicate a fair amount of cloud cover anyway watching the 18z is like watching paint dry a long slow death to my eyes

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, igloo said:

im not to sure about that uppers of +4 or +6 would indicate a fair amount of cloud cover anyway watching the 18z is like watching paint dry a long slow death to my eyes

Uppers have no relation whatsoever to cloud cover.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some call this boring but I like it a lot, cold fine days and frosty nights with freezing fog patches from the Gfs 18z next week:D.:cold-emoji:

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp.png

ukmintemp (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Crikey, Norway gets a northerly all the way from the baring sea :shok: or is that an easterly :crazy: 

 

IMG_3762.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Given this anticyclonic spell looks like holding firm for quite some time yet, it would be good to know when we last had a 2 week period with high pressure dominating things at this time of year, indeed I don't think you will find many recent examples.. 

Dec 2006 and 2007 brought a similiar positioned high but that came towards the middle of Dec and lasted 2 weeks. I think it may have been 1991, 1987 also the last time. Noteworthy how on all these occasions the high eventually sunk SE, it seems the form horse in early winter (less so later in the winter), for highs overhead to take this route. Not saying this will happen this time though, as we have a very different northern hemispheric profile to all those years.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Looking at the ECM and GFS 18hrs run trends I think the quickest route out of watching this bloated high hang around and drive us nuts is going to be the PV split and then hope we can see any high quickly retrogress with a Scandi trough.

The UKMO could get us there with a bit more interest along the way , with that in mind tonights fax chart for T120hrs:

fax120s.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-0-288.png?18

Very promising

Cross polar goodies

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

All aboard the Rampling train.

gfsnh-0-288_pzi2.png

 

If we could get to there, then I really cant see it going Pete Tong!!!!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Another run showing the pincer wave attack on the vortex in week 2 as the Atlantic high re amplifies.We would have to wait to nearer the time to see where the pieces fall for us.This will be another of many different solutions that will be shown in the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

18z has Euro ridge and Aleutian ridge squeeze which goes for a full on bulldoze of low 500mb heights to our north

IMG_0005.PNGIMG_0007.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Uppers have no relation whatsoever to cloud cover.

 

They might be some sort of link but it would probably be minimal. Wind direction and any fronts that get trapped into the high will be the factors that decide how much sunshine we will see.

As I say, it does look like the sunshine will be more limited from now until the end of the week then its probably more uncertain just how much sunshine we will see at the weekend. Next week, clearer skies look likely to return as pick up more of a continental drift, how cold it will get at night depends how much wind there will be and where the high ends up.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM and GFS 18hrs run trends I think the quickest route out of watching this bloated high hang around and drive us nuts is going to be the PV split and then hope we can see any high quickly retrogress with a Scandi trough.

The UKMO could get us there with a bit more interest along the way , with that in mind tonights fax chart for T120hrs:

fax120s.gif

 

Gosh, things must be looking up - 1st time the 120 fax has been wheeled out this season

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham to Fazeley Canal, Bodymoor Heath, North Warwickshire
  • Location: Birmingham to Fazeley Canal, Bodymoor Heath, North Warwickshire
11 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Some call this boring but I like it a lot, cold fine days and frosty nights with freezing fog patches from the Gfs 18z next week:D.:cold-emoji:

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp.png

ukmintemp (1).png

Indeed Frosty, my back garden has had an ice day today and will again tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, swilliam said:

Gosh, things must be looking up - 1st time the 120 fax has been wheeled out this season

Lmao! Personally I'm really hoping the UKMO is on the right track because just watching that high expand to what looks like Jabba The Hut was becoming tiresome.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Given this anticyclonic spell looks like holding firm for quite some time yet, it would be good to know when we last had a 2 week period with high pressure dominating things at this time of year, indeed I don't think you will find many recent examples.. 

Dec 2006 and 2007 brought a similiar positioned high but that came towards the middle of Dec and lasted 2 weeks. I think it may have been 1991, 1987 also the last time. Noteworthy how on all these occasions the high eventually sunk SE, it seems the form horse in early winter (less so later in the winter), for highs overhead to take this route. Not saying this will happen this time though, as we have a very different northern hemispheric profile to all those years.

 

 

Believe it or not I think Dec 2014 had a two week spell, not cold like this tho

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Nice to see the London temp not get above 8C for 10 days and the 12z GFS op looks a mild outlier from the 8th to 12th

IMG_0008.GIF

Edited by Nick F
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