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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-198.png?12?6

Looks like it's attempting an undercut to me,

That is so so tantalisingly close to a undercut if ever I've seen one of those knifedge 49%-51%!

 

Am going to do a detailed post after the hustle of this evenings runs about how we should now be happy about current and future prospects if cold and possibly snowy weather is what you're after.

Edited by london-snow
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, london-snow said:

That is so so tantalisingly close to a undercut if ever I've seen one of those knifedge 49%-51%!

You could argue the undercut is already there with a string of lows below the High, the problem is the deepish low beside Iceland pressuring the block to sink away or at least maintain its position.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS 12Z ... you're kidding me, right? Slider low at T210 and can't get uppers below 0C? 

That is a sharp, sharp knife edge on the GFS and UKMO tonight.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It's just got that feeing now that our patience could well finally be rewarded soon. We will all be greatful it didn't happen in early November if it comes to fruition. Come on ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

I think the UK high is guaranteed for the first couple of weeks of December, there will be no Scandi high.

Attention is really on the extended GEFS for any clues where our high might go from mid month into January.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Watching these runs is turning into a tongue twister: stonking, stinking, stinking, stonking, stonking, stinking, stinks?...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Unfortunately no progress with our shortwave, the GFS doesn't have enough re-curve of the jet back towards the Low Countries and so the colder air is held further to the east. At least though the sinking high and very mild air looks like being less likely, its a good sign because generally in those crud winters the high sinks quickly as the rampant jet blasts away everything in its wake.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

This run frustrates me immensely, it certainly is not mild, anywho the GFS 12z waves goodbye to that North Pacific block/high, quite a considerable change in that part of the world, will it come back? topsy turvy output to be expected IMO the UK high might want to stretch its arms, go north my friend.:angel:

image.jpegimage.png

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Seems to me that we are about to get stuck into a pattern of High pressure sitting over the UK with low pressure systems squeezing in on both sides of us. 

here's today's chart TODAY.png

 

here's how it looks for Saturday'    SATURDAY.png

 

And the final frame FINAL FRAME.png

 

Rinse, repeat ??

 

I chose the wrong time of year to get an injury :(

 

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

No snow whilst the high continues to sit on top of us. We need it to move eithee NE or NW - maybe one for future runs but think we may be stuck underneath it for a good few days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

But not the same depth of cold to the east on the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

No snow whilst the high continues to sit on top of us. We need it to move eithee NE or NW - maybe one for future runs but think we may be stuck underneath it for a good few days. 

 looking very interesting down the line with hp sat over us cold pool to the east anything is possible..:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
25 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

This run frustrates me immensely, it certainly is not mild, anywho the GFS 12z waves goodbye to that North Pacific block/high, quite a considerable change in that part of the world, will it come back? topsy turvy output to be expected IMO the UK high might want to stretch its arms, go north my friend.:angel:

 

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms, sun, anything photogenic.
  • Location: Hereford.
25 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It's already here. OK it's not what most of us in here including me would ideally want (deep cold and snow) & some may call this "faux cold" but non the less it's still cold with a hard frost expected tonight and temps struggling tomorrow in the low single figures. Much better than rain, wind & mild temps.

True enough. Colder temperatures tonight and tomorrow night than 99% of nights last winter! But, yes, a blizzard would be better......

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

He's talking about the OP not the Ensembles.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

I think he is referring to the large block on the op that was entering into the Arctic from the Pacific at the tip of alaska and russia.  Me thinks you know farewell yea cheeky Monkey.:)

 

Edited by booferking
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