Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[bobbydog]

Whilst nothing snowy ( I won't say wintry) is being modelled for the UK at the moment, I would like to show how different a situation we are in to last year. Using the GFS, here are the charts for now, 192hrs and 384hrs and the corresponding dates for last year-

Now (Nov 27th)

192hrs

And 384hrs

Very different hemispheric profile and much weaker/disorganised trop vortex this year.

Much more... dare I use that word again... potential.... 

[legritter]

Yes agree waiting for good synoptics is very frustrating , [cold and Snow ] but i,m sure the professionals have seen something in their long range outlooks .

They could be right that blocking will take place in a few weeks time , but of course where it sets up is so so important if you want it cold and possibly snowy in our neck of the woods . looking at todays ECM at around 7/10 days what catches my eye is that at this range those lows out west look like they might just do about anything ,especially IF pressure over the pole rises or to our north so lets wait and be patient, weather is fascinating but past the range of a week or so very very hard to forecast .

Well good news ,13 weeks of meteorological winter to come soon ,[this thursday ] then we have 182 runs of ecm and uk met ,and of course double that of good old GFS ,enough to send you crackers ,so lets hope we can get a nice high pressure to our north somewhere ,low pressure to our south and this remaining for 8/10 weeks ,we can then just sit back ,pull up a chair do some curtain twitching radar watching ,a bit of food panic buying A STella etc .The upper air situation as apposed to most years is much different this year ,perhaps we will see big swings in the weather , and as others have said POtential ,Keep the faith gang ,relax chill , we dont realy know whats over that horizon ,cheers gang 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

It is interesting just to look at all 3x00z operational runs and compare this mornings for Dec 1st with yesterday's.

Again,like yesterday's 12z's as we have gone forward 24hrs they have all moved to a more negative Atlantic tilted ridge with more of the jet split se.It does at the very least leave open the prospect of a switch in the pattern further on if this trend continues.Until this splitting of the Canadian trough at days 4/7 is resolved then the means are not very helpful.

Just saying.

 

 

 

 

3

 

Indeed Phil and precisely how the Jet split is handled in subsequent runs will be most telling. In your experience, is this what is causing the mixed messages from the modelling (all NWP suites) post D6 or thereabouts? I'm presuming it bears relation to where the Atlantic trough positions itself.

Edited November 27, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Barry12]

Theres also potential for mildness...

Edited November 27, 2016 by Barry95

[SMU]

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Theres also potential for mildness...

Of course there is, Barry, that's the nature of what we have now: an amplified PFJ, a feeble and unpredictable PV and persistent (though not necessarily immovable) HLBs...Even New Year 1982 was 'rather' mild, if my memory serves?

We cannae be on the cold side of the PFJ all of the time!

[Methuselah]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

But, hopefully not the under (the throat) cut, eh, Steve?

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

let's hope you got it nailed Steve!

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, hopefully not the under (the throat) cut, eh, Steve?

Indeed- we cant ever rule out the GFS could be correct however given the entire output across the piste especially the Euros ( especially the UKMO ) I would attach an 20/80 probability in favour of GFS at this stage-

Possible middle ground just a cold UK high, with cold easterlies only available on the full undercut-

March 2013 still looms in the shadows...

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

11 minutes ago, andymusic said:

let's hope you got it nailed Steve!

 

Cheers mate

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But, hopefully not the under (the throat) cut, eh, Steve?

Let's hope there's something worth ramping at T+384 hours.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

34 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Indeed Phil and precisely how the Jet split is handled in subsequent runs will be most telling. In your experience, is this what is causing the mixed messages from the modelling (all NWP suites) post D6 or thereabouts? I'm presuming it nears relation to where the Atlantic trough positions itself.

We have seen before when the models are wrestling with a split- a small difference either way will tilt the balance to either the stronger northern arm riding over the top and sinking a mid-latitude block or  we get the main energy underneath which holds the block at higher latitudes.From there we are better placed to develop a cold pattern particularly if the high goes ne or nw.

Tbh very often in a normal year the northern jet eventually wins but this season we have a weaker vortex and  -ve  mean zonal winds anomalies which is showing in the way the Atlantic jet has been anything but constant.

Anyway we are getting closer to a resolution-the next day or so the models should resolve this one as we are talking about the next few days.

Edited November 27, 2016 by phil nw.
Spelling-again

[bobbydog]

29 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Theres also potential for mildness...

To be fair, thats showing between 1 and 3°c above the average over a 5 day period. It's not showing mild.

Edited November 27, 2016 by bobbydog

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Let's hope there's something worth ramping at T+384 hours, I got a razor blade and prozac just in case it fails!

too early in the season for that Mr Frosty - lots of winter to come yet

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

too early in the season for that Mr Frosty - lots of winter to come yet

I better keep stocked up then

Anyway, no downgrades so far,  steady as she goes

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[snowflakey]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its more the actual trough disruption of the low itself

look at UKMO 120 at the same time...

Thanks for the reply Steve will have to do a bit of work research into trough distribution. Fingers crossed for the next GFS

[SLEETY]

blocking hasnt left us yet,need to see if the models still want to go with the undercut,fl is at about 120 hr if gfs is wrong at that timescale than rest of its output is junk,which when it hits low res ,then its junk every single day lol,so posting 9-10 day charts really is a waste of time ,as much use as taking notice of JamesMadden forecasts !!

[Mark wheeler]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

Brave call Steve I have everything crossed that your right . Cmon 

[Frosty.]

It's looking like the week ahead will be anticyclonic with a very slow moving pattern..so, changes will be slow, a bit of patience is required, tuesday looks cold 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

In 2013 I think it went down below 96 hours.... I wouldn't put any money on it being resolved one way or the other

[The Beast From The East]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed- we cant ever rule out the GFS could be correct however given the entire output across the piste especially the Euros ( especially the UKMO ) I would attach an 20/80 probability in favour of GFS at this stage-

Possible middle ground just a cold UK high, with cold easterlies only available on the full undercut-

March 2013 still looms in the shadows...

Hi Steve, when u say "March 2013 still looms in the shadows..."

Can you remind me what happened? Not the best memory lol. That's not one of the failed Eastelies we were promised ?

 

I so hope we get the undercut. 

Cheers Steve.

 

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Hi Steve, when u say "March 2013 still looms in the shadows..."

Can you remind me what happened? Not the best memory lol. That's not one of the failed Eastelies we were promised ?

 

I so hope we get the undercut. 

Cheers Steve.

 

No it was the AO tanked to -5 & deep Easterlies

this was the beginning-

look at the angle if the ridge- thats the possible equivalent of a 192 / 216 chart from today -

S

 

[SMU]

GFS 84 more energy going SE 

trough on a better axis

also further west--

[Kieran]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare

This is the time. The time for the undercut -

The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..

Up to +90 and it seems like an undercut much more achievable on this run.

6z:  12z: 

Much more energy heading under the high....

Edited November 27, 2016 by Kieran

[The Beast From The East]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No it was the AO tanked to -5 & deep Easterlies

this was the beginning-

look at the angle if the ridge- thats the possible equivalent of a 192 / 216 chart from today -

S

 

I see , thanks for that Steve .