Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[January Snowstorm]

I'm not sure if the beeb do a farming analysis on their site but the Irish Met (met eireann) do. Well worth a read and surprising how much temps are below average. Air temps are up to 5 degrees below average with soil temps equally so. Whilst the models are chopping and changing the frosts continue unabated.. Someone mentioned don't think 2010? Going by these stats it ain't far away!!

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The models have downgraded any real cold potential, high res is a near miss (being generous)and then low res is back to mild mush, i.e. back to the drawing board. As usual, potential could turn to disappointment.

Not sure that they have, Frosty, I mean Karl. If anything, I'd say that the weather is merely stretching the models' collective forecasting ability...IMO, there are currently too many factors that are outwith the models' 'experience'. Indeed, they might even be outwith human forecasters' collective experience?

Edited November 27, 2016 by Ed Stone
grammer!

[Paul_1978]

Looking in the "reliable" 7 day time frame, it looks like a week of settled weather dominated by HP. 

Any Atlantic influence (however lengthy or brief) is AT LEAST 8 days away - which is outside the reliable. 

For me, over the next few days, I'm going to keep my eye on a week on Monday (5th Dec) and it will be interesting to see if these south westerlies come into the reliable time frame... we shall see. I suspect due to model volatility they won't.

[bluearmy]

29 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm not sure if the beeb do a farming analysis on their site but the Irish Met (met eireann) do. Well worth a read and surprising how much temps are below average. Air temps are up to 5 degrees below average with soil temps equally so. Whilst the models are chopping and changing the frosts continue unabated.. Someone mentioned don't think 2010? Going by these stats it ain't far away!!

Even in the 'balmy south' , which has been the wrong side of the PFJ for much of the time recently, by the end of November we will have had more frosts than I recall the whole of last winter! 

The AO's continue to look neutral out to two weeks. the background trend of the individual suite either making them look more likely to trend pos or neg. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by bluearmy

[carinthian]

Morning all. This picture from UKMO at day 7  ( t-168hours ) extended  forecast chart shows high pressure still  in charge over all the British Isles. So no sign of SW ly flow there. Indeed the Mid Atlantic low showing signs of a slide towards Iberia. That's where we want it to go ( for cold lover anyway ). Looking at the movie graphic from day 5 to 7 , the high cell centre over the UK moves slightly NW rather than sinking. So this picture is encouraging on thIs particular model run anyway.

 C

Edited November 27, 2016 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

Into the medium term, it's the system in the nw Atlantic days 6 /7/8 which decides whether a wedge of heights establishes griceland or the ridge simply gets pushed east as most of the jet rides ne 

we know from experience that ukmo can change this outlook at day 6 as we saw it happen a couple times in 2013 with the undercut progged in the face of GFS and ECM saying otherwise. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by bluearmy

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. This picture from UKMO at day 7  ( t-168hours ) extended  forecast chart shows high pressure still  in charge over all the British Isles. So no sign of SW ly flow there. Indeed the Mid Atlantic low showing signs of a slide towards Iberia. That's where we want it to go ( for cold lover anyway ). Looking at the movie graphic from day 5 to 7 , the high cell centre over the UK moves slightly NW rather than sinking. So this picture is encouraging on thIs particular model run anyway.

 C

That looks a stonking chart, trough going straight under. Likey likey!

im not sure I understand a lot of the downbeat posts in here today? Not what I was expecting after viewing gfs ECM and ukmo especially when I woke up. The ECM at day 10 has so much potential to get a cold pattern for the uk.

im pretty darn happy with the 00z output 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by karlos1983

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. This picture from UKMO at day 7  ( t-168hours ) extended  forecast chart shows high pressure still  in charge over all the British Isles. So no sign of SW ly flow there. Indeed the Mid Atlantic low showing signs of a slide towards Iberia. That's where we want it to go ( for cold lover anyway ). Looking at the movie graphic from day 5 to 7 , the high cell centre over the UK moves slightly NW rather than sinking. So this picture is encouraging on thIs particular model run anyway.

 C

Although the forecast day 7 chart is outside the reliable time span and open to change, the latest chart for 144hours from UKMO does not show the high pressure over the UK sinking.

 C

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Its tough love but as expected the models have killed any hope of a cold spell starting in the next week or so. the models have been solid in this with only some members of EC for a run or two giving it any credence. The GFS op brings us into a zonal westerly flow after the HP is overriden, only for about 5 days, and that could just be default GFS.

Looking at the GEFS and its a poor set. At D16 with all this promise there are still no members showing anything close to cold and the trop mean PV is still trending back to Greenland giving the UK a flow that is poor for cold:

London: 

The mean London 2m temps looks around average for the next 14 days as a whole. 

So nothing cold in the medium term, a UK high for between 5-10 days depending on model; GFS<ECM<GEM. Then zonal on the GFS (lower confidence in that outcome) though the GEFS promise little of interest with the more likely cluster, mini ridge and trough combo (continuing pattern of late). All in all the same old story for the last 4-6 weeks ~promise, patience and great background synoptics. Thankfully it is Nov and early December that we are having these false dawns, not Jan into Feb. Though I have seen plenty of comments that this is a rare winter pattern so how these background signals manifest should be a lesson to us all.

 

This is not a ridiculous post at all. Has far too much emphasis been put on long range forecasts in this forum the past six weeks? To pinpoint a UK cold snap based upon them is unwise, as the macro pattern can be correct at D15 but the micro pattern relating to the UK may be quite different.

On the same token though, we can't rule out cold for 4 weeks. Who's to say we won't get an undercut in the Atlantic between D8 and D12? Or are the models good enough to be trusted at that range?

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is not a ridiculous post at all. Has far too much emphasis been put on long range forecasts in this forum the past six weeks? To pinpoint a UK cold snap based upon them is unwise, as the macro pattern can be correct at D15 but the micro pattern relating to the UK may be quite different.

On the same token though, we can't rule out cold for 4 weeks. Who's to say we won't get an undercut in the Atlantic between D8 and D12? Or are the models good enough to be trusted at that range?

The part that was in bold was highly questionable MWB. I wasn't arguing with anything else in it. 

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That looks a stonking chart, trough going straight under. Likey likey!

im not sure I understand a lot of the downbeat posts in here today? Not what I was expecting after viewing gfs ECM and ukmo especially when I woke up. The ECM at day 10 has so much potential to get a cold pattern for the uk.

im pretty darn happy with the 00z output 

 

 

I think most people are over analysing things and judging their expectations on developments post T+10,080 minute timescales. Yes, guys and gals, a D7 chart is really that far way . Anything can happen in the next 10,079 minutes (although we've lost many since whilst I was in the land of nod(, yet we are still in the very high thousands of minutes as I type this. HP influence largely rules the roost until then with variations in Air Temperatures and cloud cover by day and by night until D7. 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is not a ridiculous post at all. Has far too much emphasis been put on long range forecasts in this forum the past six weeks? To pinpoint a UK cold snap based upon them is unwise, as the macro pattern can be correct at D15 but the micro pattern relating to the UK may be quite different.

On the same token though, we can't rule out cold for 4 weeks. Who's to say we won't get an undercut in the Atlantic between D8 and D12? Or are the models good enough to be trusted at that range?

tbh id agree with you there.when does a long range forecast become wrong when its shuffled forward ete? Im yet again not having a pop at anyone but i find it confusing when people say ignore fi when it shows a strong pv but stick with the pros lrf .even with all there high tec computers ete and exp i do appreciate what a thankless job they have.It just seems that lrf seem to be very flexible to a certain extent and tbh even a broken clock is correct twice a day.Looking at the ukmo this morning and ecm there does seem short term a chance of the high being squeezed into a more beneficial position going forward.

[MR EXTREMES]

this is what happens when u brexit lol europe goes into an iceage and uk all alone missing out lol.

but on serious note pretty dry cold nights at times my god what a mess though.

[sea swim]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm not sure if the beeb do a farming analysis on their site but the Irish Met (met eireann) do. Well worth a read and surprising how much temps are below average. Air temps are up to 5 degrees below average with soil temps equally so. Whilst the models are chopping and changing the frosts continue unabated.. Someone mentioned don't think 2010? Going by these stats it ain't far away!!

Have you got a link to the page on their site please?

[John Cox]

13 minutes ago, sea swim said:

Have you got a link to the page on their site please?

Here you go sea swim. I'm sure January Snowstorm won't mind me obliging.

The Irish Met office forecasts heavily based on ECM, plus their own internal stuff. I find them very reliable and they rarely forecast beyond 5-7 days

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/farm-commentary.asp

[jvenge]

Not in the reliable, but i would have thought the 6z is going to deliver mid teen temperatures for the UK. By t210 or so, it looks exceptionally warm.

[jvenge]

Not in the reliable, but i would have thought the 6z is going to deliver mid teen temperatures for the UK. By t210 or so, it looks exceptionally warm.

[bluearmy]

06z gfs fi following the background script perfectly

Edited November 27, 2016 by bluearmy

[SMU]

Morning 

For the same reasons that happened yestersay from 00z across to 18z & beyond the GFS continues to take the energy off the states at 168 & move it east with a significant positive tilt  - your UKMO / NAVGEM take that & move it SE -

I fully expect the GFS to morph into the Euros by tomorrow-

ECM 216/240 still continues to look like 2013 March with a slightly more northern extent -

Wait for the 12s...

S

 

[andymusic]

oh well for the mo - and this is the reality folks - winter has backed off short term - but now we'll have to see when it might return - take a break folks and do your xmas shopping - i'm sure it'll be back once it's ready - hopefully in time for a white xmas this year

Edited November 27, 2016 by andymusic

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning 

For the same reasons that happened yestersay from 00z across to 18z & beyond the GFS continues to take the energy off the states at 168 & move it east with a significant positive tilt  - your UKMO / NAVGEM take that & move it SE -

I fully expect the GFS to morph into the Euros by tomorrow-

ECM 216/240 still continues to look like 2013 March with a slightly more northern extent -

Wait for the 12s...

S

 

If..we...land..at..day10..on..ECM,its..game..ON..Steve,IMHO..ofcourse....

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z gfs fi following the background script perfectly

split..PV...

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

split..PV...

Tropospherically and high up in the Strat.

[sea swim]

30 minutes ago, John Cox said:

Here you go sea swim. I'm sure January Snowstorm won't mind me obliging.

The Irish Met office forecasts heavily based on ECM, plus their own internal stuff. I find them very reliable and they rarely forecast beyond 5-7 days

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/farm-commentary.asp

Thats great!! Many thanks for this!

[SMU]

The GFS mean at 120 keeps the atlantic low as one entity with minimal trough disruption ( as per Euros ) 

Until it resolves this & moves the energy into x2 split areas - one further SE & the other further NW it will continue to create a positive tilted low at 168 & flatten the block

The second it gets decent seperation the energy will go under...

Edited November 27, 2016 by Steve Murr