Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[knocker]

The ecm is not a million miles from the GFS, perhaps more emphatic at breaking down the HP at the end of the run but the detail around there is a fair way from being resolved.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

It's a disappointing evening in my opinion, the Ecm has downgraded on the 12z, the Gem 12z becomes mild and the Gfs 18z in low res is mild mush. Hope for better tomorrow.

ECM like for like is improving.  Another decent run this morning.  I'm not expecting arctic lock in but Dec below average.  Yes its disappointing if u hope for a 2010, but don't yearn for that if u r.  We are stepping forward

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

43 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

We are stepping forward

 

BFTP

Are we? doesn't feel like it

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

0r me Frosty, seems like on 00Z's it's a step forward for Atlantic air fans sigh

[IDO]

Its tough love but as expected the models have killed any hope of a cold spell starting in the next week or so. the models have been solid in this with only some members of EC for a run or two giving it any credence. The GFS op brings us into a zonal westerly flow after the HP is overriden, only for about 5 days, and that could just be default GFS.

Looking at the GEFS and its a poor set. At D16 with all this promise there are still no members showing anything close to cold and the trop mean PV is still trending back to Greenland giving the UK a flow that is poor for cold:

London: 

The mean London 2m temps looks around average for the next 14 days as a whole. 

So nothing cold in the medium term, a UK high for between 5-10 days depending on model; GFS<ECM<GEM. Then zonal on the GFS (lower confidence in that outcome) though the GEFS promise little of interest with the more likely cluster, mini ridge and trough combo (continuing pattern of late). All in all the same old story for the last 4-6 weeks ~promise, patience and great background synoptics. Thankfully it is Nov and early December that we are having these false dawns, not Jan into Feb. Though I have seen plenty of comments that this is a rare winter pattern so how these background signals manifest should be a lesson to us all.

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

0r me Frosty, seems like on 00Z's it's a step forward for Atlantic air fans sigh

indeed, a step forward to swly zephyrs

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

UKMO/GFS/ECM

      

Whilst the angle of the disrupting trough is there, the differences between the 3 upstream are quite high, the GFS has a weak trough which will be quickly cut off allowing the Azores high to ridge back north east towards the UK.

The UKMO has a much deeper low to our south west which will not cut off so easily whilst the ECM shows a a much large area of low heights over eastern Canada with a much flatter jet profile. The ECM solution actually allows the ridge to be cut off as a weak feature to our north with the jet running underneath this.

It will be interesting to see if the models move towards an area of weak heights developing and becoming cut towards the Iceland region as this could have an impact further down the line.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

Its tough love but as expected the models have killed any hope of a cold spell starting in the next week or so. the models have been solid in this with only some members of EC for a run or two giving it any credence. The GFS op brings us into a zonal westerly flow after the HP is overriden, only for about 5 days, and that could just be default GFS.

Looking at the GEFS and its a poor set. At D16 with all this promise there are still no members showing anything close to cold and the trop mean PV is still trending back to Greenland giving the UK a flow that is poor for cold:

London: 

The mean London 2m temps looks around average for the next 14 days as a whole. 

So nothing cold in the medium term, a UK high for between 5-10 days depending on model; GFS<ECM<GEM. Then zonal on the GFS (lower confidence in that outcome) though the GEFS promise little of interest with the more likely cluster, mini ridge and trough combo (continuing pattern of late). All in all the same old story for the last 4-6 weeks ~promise, patience and great background synoptics. Thankfully it is Nov and early December that we are having these false dawns, not Jan into Feb. Though I have seen plenty of comments that this is a rare winter pattern so how these background signals manifest should be a lesson to us all.

 

Great post IDO

[swfc]

16 minutes ago, IDO said:

Its tough love but as expected the models have killed any hope of a cold spell starting in the next week or so. the models have been solid in this with only some members of EC for a run or two giving it any credence. The GFS op brings us into a zonal westerly flow after the HP is overriden, only for about 5 days, and that could just be default GFS.

Looking at the GEFS and its a poor set. At D16 with all this promise there are still no members showing anything close to cold and the trop mean PV is still trending back to Greenland giving the UK a flow that is poor for cold:

London: 

The mean London 2m temps looks around average for the next 14 days as a whole. 

So nothing cold in the medium term, a UK high for between 5-10 days depending on model; GFS<ECM<GEM. Then zonal on the GFS (lower confidence in that outcome) though the GEFS promise little of interest with the more likely cluster, mini ridge and trough combo (continuing pattern of late). All in all the same old story for the last 4-6 weeks ~promise, patience and great background synoptics. Thankfully it is Nov and early December that we are having these false dawns, not Jan into Feb. Though I have seen plenty of comments that this is a rare winter pattern so how these background signals manifest should be a lesson to us all.

 

Great post tbh.Yes a lot of talk about front loaded winter ete and colder weather coming in from the ene seem to have been on the agenda for what seems like forever.Not a dig at anyone seeing as its still only november obv.The set up on the nhp,pv,ao ete has been really in a strange place since oct but for us in the uk surrounded by water we always seem to be on the edge of everything.Hopefully we get our chance and the models start to show some real interest ete.Ecm isnt without interest this morning also ukmo looks pretty promising.Over the last few years theres talk of potential?heres hoping it kicks in during december

Edited November 27, 2016 by swfc

[January Snowstorm]

We've heard a fair bit lately about early December delivering. This for me is the problem with lrfs they simply don't work. Granted it's been a v different autumn but not necessarily leading to anything noteworthy. 

There is still huge uncertainty in the shorterm though and a few tweaks could give a v different outcome

[Ali1977]

GFS FI is only out to the 13th, and even at this range a fair chunk before the 13th will be wrong. Lots of time for mid month onwards to start showing much better charts. Just look at the last 4 frames of GFS, PV builds then 2 days later we'd be in an Easterly - things can quickly change even when it looks very unlikely!! 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

Its tough love but as expected the models have killed any hope of a cold spell starting in the next week or so. the models have been solid in this with only some members of EC for a run or two giving it any credence. The GFS op brings us into a zonal westerly flow after the HP is overriden, only for about 5 days, and that could just be default GFS.

Looking at the GEFS and its a poor set. At D16 with all this promise there are still no members showing anything close to cold and the trop mean PV is still trending back to Greenland giving the UK a flow that is poor for cold:

 

Just ridiculous IDO.  Have you bothered to look through the evolution of the members or are you taking a snapshot and thinking - that doesn't look cold?

the trend for week 2 this morning is for the Pacific ridge to create a split trop vortex creating another Arctic high. the energy going from Siberia to n greeny will ramp us the Atlantic jet somewhat but that potential split flow could make this academic for nw Europe anyway. 

the end game being a ridge establishing to our ne. The issue we have is where the east Atlantic high is going ? It needs to retrogress or be 'sucked' up into the building ridge to our ne. 

[knocker]

A bit like this maybe. anyone for a N'easterly

[Weather-history]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

0r me Frosty, seems like on 00Z's it's a step forward for Atlantic air fans sigh

To me, it looks like GFS has extended the dry spell. No meaningful rainfall spike on the Manchester 0z ensembles until after the 5th December. Rainfall spikes that were before the said date on previous runs seem to have vanished.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Smiler1709]

To be fair the BBC have indicated a few times that after this week ahead of dry frosty weather, we are likely to see mild temperatures. But they also indicate that the cold will return eventually around mid month. that could change but at least the current models are painting that picture. 

[IDO]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just ridiculous IDO.  Have you bothered to look through the evolution of the members or are you taking a snapshot and thinking - that doesn't look cold?

the trend for week 2 this morning is for the Pacific ridge to create a split trop vortex creating another Arctic high. the energy going from Siberia to n greeny will ramp us the Atlantic jet somewhat but that potential split flow could make this academic for nw Europe anyway. 

the end game being a ridge establishing to our ne. The issue we have is where the east Atlantic high is going ? It needs to retrogress or be 'sucked' up into the building ridge to our ne. 

I agree, but I was specific about the medium term, up to D16 as there was a lot of stuff on here that there was an incoming cold spell next week. Of course there are going to be loads more chases for cold upcoming and maybe after D16 another one, who knows. I was just reflecting on chasing this rainbow not the next one or the next as they are well into FI. Yes the GEFS open up an opportunity for heights to our NE as the current cold one promised from the NW and no doubt we will see where that goes in time. I am not killing off Winter just commenting on the next 16 day cycle as I am not privy to the longer range forecasts. So it is rather harsh to have a dig, we are all frustrated by the continuing misses for the UK and there is room for some grounded commentary as well as the usual cold stuff.

As for the ECM op run showing a wedge of weak HP at D10, that is hard to forecast at that range and the op at D10 is JFF (especially ECM). The mean is closer to the GEFS at D10:

Edited November 27, 2016 by IDO

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just ridiculous IDO.  Have you bothered to look through the evolution of the members or are you taking a snapshot and thinking - that doesn't look cold?

the trend for week 2 this morning is for the Pacific ridge to create a split trop vortex creating another Arctic high. the energy going from Siberia to n greeny will ramp us the Atlantic jet somewhat but that potential split flow could make this academic for nw Europe anyway. 

the end game being a ridge establishing to our ne. The issue we have is where the east Atlantic high is going ? It needs to retrogress or be 'sucked' up into the building ridge to our ne. 

you mention trend and potential ba which is fair enough altho given the daily changes a brave man would attempt a forecast on that.heres hoping tho 

[northwestsnow]

Pick..of..the...big3...UKMO...

ps....ecm..day10..loaded..with...potential...

Edited November 27, 2016 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

you mention trend and potential ba which is fair enough altho given the daily changes a brave man would attempt a forecast on that.heres hoping tho 

Can only look for trends in week 2 rather than any detail. the eps look less likely to split the vortex but that may be more to do with the number of runs muting any clustering on the mean. what is clear (for the southern half of the uk at least) is that whilst we have high anomolys to our south, we won't see a cold spell that brings snow. 

The revwrsal of the euro trough to euro high between T288 and T168 last week on the eps should remind us all that flipping and flopping is sometimes  just around the corner! 

[Frosty.]

The models have downgraded any real cold potential, high res is a near miss (being generous)and then low res is back to mild mush, i.e. back to the drawing board. As usual, potential could turn to disappointment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

indeed, a step forward to swly zephyrs

 

Who's talking about GFS on 5th? Go back 2days on ECM.  Now it seems you are after 2010 Synoptics.....never on the cards.  Lower expectations

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Pick..of..the...big3...UKMO...

ps....ecm..day10..loaded..with...potential...

Absolutely NWS

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lower expectations

 

BFTP

They are lowered having seen the 00z output, markedly

And they wern't that high to begin with!

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frank Trough]

Not too much wrong with dry and frosty next week is there? As always pointless looking beyond +144, tempting as it always is. Anything in week 2 will change.

[Summer Sun]

The wet start to December which the ens showed seems to be getting pushed back not much rain now till around Dec 6th