Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[nick sussex]

After a sudden switch today with the outputs developing more interest we've reached somewhat of a plateau this evening.

The ECM 12hrs has a very similar pattern to the 00hrs but the high never really sets up in a favourable position to draw colder uppers westwards. Theres likely to be some frost and fog about so not too bad but we still need a lot more upgrades if we're to get into a situation where we could add some snow into the mix.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After a sudden switch today with the outputs developing more interest we've reached somewhat of a plateau this evening.

The ECM 12hrs has a very similar pattern to the 00hrs but the high never really sets up in a favourable position to draw colder uppers westwards. Theres likely to be some frost and fog about so not too bad but we still need a lot more upgrades if we're to get into a situation where we could add some snow into the mix.

 

Compare it to yesterday's 12z Nick and it is a v good improvement.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Compare it to yesterday's 12z Nick and it is a v good improvement.

BFTP

It's a disappointing evening in my opinion, the Ecm has downgraded on the 12z, the Gem 12z becomes mild and the Gfs 18z in low res is mild mush. Hope for better tomorrow.

[bobbydog]

Well, I do remain optimistic for winter. The vortex at the end of the GFS  run looks like an aged lion with its teeth and claws missing. Impressive looking but harmless.

Potential is the keyword here.

I have therefore, got some potential tyres for my land rover. I'm looking forward to opening the curtains to see the world covered in a blanket of potential, building a potential man with the kids and having a good old potential ball fight.

Let's hope the local councils have got all their potential-ploughs ready for action!

[snowbob]

4 hours ago, Orpingtoniceagedec10 said:

Thanks for that, I'm still a newbie and learning. Wishful thinking! 

Need an ENE wind

feb 2009 great example

[blizzard81]

One thing I have noticed on the gfs 12z and 18z ensembles is a nose dive in temps on many members at the end of the runs - 11th/12th Dec. Pretty much ties in with what ecm seasonal and glosea are pointing towards.

[fergieweather]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

One thing I have noticed on the gfs 12z and 18z ensembles is a nose dive in temps on many members at the end of the runs - 11th/12th Dec. Pretty much ties in with what ecm seasonal and glosea are pointing towards.

...albeit the E'ly set-up later Dec showing in both latest GloSea and ECMWF has inevitably low confidence given lead time, so (especially given weak signals prior to then into mid-month), these outcomes signposted later should be treated with due caution, at present.

[SMU]

I always new the 18z NAVGEM was the best model !

[SMU]

00z GFS @ 144 further upgrades...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Unbelievably close to a very good cold spell here...most of Europe heading into the freezer. Also, note the jet recurve back westwards around the western edge of that trough (wasn't there on the 12z) which pushes the cold deeper into more of Europe

[Mucka]

I'll take your GFS 00z 144 and raise you UKMO. 144

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mucka said:

UKMO 144, looking good.

Yes - Ripper!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I'll take your GFS 00z 144 and raise you UKMO. 144

 

We just seemingly can't get a decent undercut. If that high could just gain an iota more latitude then it's game on as troughing could slice the heights and leave a cut off high of sorts to our N/NW. The UKMO almost hits that tipping point, but not quite there.

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We just seemingly can't get a decent undercut. If that high could just gain an iota more latitude then it's game on as troughing could slice the heights and leave a cut off high of sorts to our N/NW. The UKMO almost hits that tipping point, but not quite there.

That is going to drive an awful lot of WAA right into the heart of the polar region with that low to our South and it would be sure to disrupt from there. 

A pretty good chance of undercut in later charts I would of thought Crew but then we have to get there first.

Get the ridge into Greenland, further West the better, and the undercut will come.

Main thing is the charts are going the right way and that is as good a UKMO as I could of expected, very happy with it but maybe I'm easily pleased?

Edited November 27, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

That is going to drive an awful lot of WAA right into the heart of the polar region with that low to our South and it would be sure to disrupt from there. 

A pretty good chance of undercut in later charts I would of thought Crew but then we have to get there first.

Get the ridge into Greenland, further West the better, and the undercut will come.

Main thing is the charts are going the right way and that is as good a UKMO as I could of expected, very happy with it.

Even on the GFS, it doesn't look a happy trop vortex to me...it's being attacked on 3 fronts there really...doesn't exactly look the vision of health. I can see the AO tanking later on into FI on this run.

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Even on the GFS, it doesn't look a happy trop vortex to me...it's being attacked on 3 fronts there really...doesn't exactly look the vision of health. I can see the AO tanking later on into FI on this run.

I hope we can do better than that though. As you say it wouldn't take much more tweaking to  get us in a cold pattern through the mid term, that is where the action is.

Look how far we have come in 48 hours or so.

 

Just need to keep the upgrades coming and we could be looking at something like a cut off Icelandic high early December.

 

If not, there is always the BBQ!

Edited November 27, 2016 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

word of warning, Freddie really getting its act together in fi lately, if we don't get this initial undercut then I'm beginning to think that the LR models will bust and a warm Dec is on the cards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I hope we can do better than that though. As you say it wouldn't take much more tweaking to  get us in a cold pattern through the mid term, that is where the action is.

Look how far we have come in 48 hours or so.

 

Just need to keep the upgrades coming and we could be looking at something like a cut off Icelandic high early December.

 

If not, there is always the BBQ!

LOL only takes til 336 hours for the trop vortex to attempt to split 

Day 16 chart is a cracker...E'ly on the way there. One of those runs you wish went on further, just for the eye candy!

I do wonder if we'll see a further shift in the medium range as the CFS seems to be barking up the blocking tree over the past several runs

Edited November 27, 2016 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

word of warning, Freddie really getting its act together in fi lately, if we don't get this initial undercut then I'm beginning to think that the LR models will bust and a warm Dec is on the cards.

I thought that...but I'm increasingly wondering (looking at the strat charts) whether what we're seeing is a complete overreaction of the modelling towards a shift back of the strat vortex from the Siberian side in the longer range. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I thought that...but I'm increasingly wondering (looking at the strat charts) whether what we're seeing is a complete overreaction of the modelling towards a shift back of the strat vortex from the Siberian side in the longer range. 

I would still give it until 15th-17th comes into range, but if only 2 members are frigid at end of gefs by then then I would worry, Eps still trending away from cold as well.

[knocker]

Today and tomorrow.

With the high cell over the UK all places will remain dry with little wind. The variation will be with temperature and cloud. Quite a severe frost overnight in N. Ireland and Scotland and it will remain cool and sunny in these areas. Elsewhere more cloud and not so cold with the cloud breaking away from the west and far south west. Similar tomorrow with more sunshine in the south.

the GFS this morning

Notwithstanding the run to run volatility which is inevitable with the fluid interaction of the warm and cold air within a pretty stable long wave pattern this morning's run is not hugely different to lasts night's in the reasonable time frame.

By Thursday the upstream energy sources have phased to form a negatively tilted trough in mid Atlantic forcing the HP in the east to ridge NW

From here a renewed burst of energy emitted from the southern States on a strong jet establishes a new trough and forces the original SE along the western flank of the ridge where it eventually becomes cut off over the Mediterranean.

This causes some renewed amplification with the Azores once more ridging NE All of this ensures that high pressure is never far away from the UK although troughs are lurking not too far away in the west.

So an overview of the weather for the period. The HP will quickly become orientated west-east by midweek which will allow some rain to sneak into northern Scotland briefly before it establishes itself. It remains influential until the beginning of next week when it slides away SE once more allowing rain into Scotland. This is merely the precursor as by Tuesday fronts tracking east bring more general rain the the whole country. Frankly I wouldn't place too much confidence in next week.

So dry and with a fair bit of variability regarding temperatures Probably looking on the cool side with HP in control but much depends on the orientation of the HP, cloud,etc. Suffice it to say probably much diurnal and latitudinal variation..

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by knocker

[Ali1977]

A beast being created in the far reaches of FI I think!!

Edited November 27, 2016 by Ali1977

[Radiating Dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A beast being created in the far reaches of FI I think!!

Yes - but it always stays in the far reaches of FI. To my untrained eye the vortex looks to be gradually cranking up with high pressure restricted to the mid latitudes on our side of the globe - making a small attempt at retrogressing to the NW later next week before being overridden by the jet and slipping to our SE allowing the Atlantic to start rolling in though I don't anticipate any big storms just general dankness and near average temps.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes - but it always stays in the far reaches of FI. To my untrained eye the vortex looks to be gradually cranking up with high pressure restricted to the mid latitudes on our side of the globe - making a small attempt at retrogressing to the NW later next week before being overridden by the jet and slipping to our SE allowing the Atlantic to start rolling in though I don't anticipate any big storms just general dankness and near average temps.

FI is for fun we know, however don't think. Cranking vortex can't all of a sudden swing into the perfect run - many classics started that way. 

On that, ECM whilst doesn't bring cold looks interesting at day 10.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Ali1977

[Radiating Dendrite]

No...but more than likely it doesn't become the perfect run. I think people are getting a little carried away looking for cold in every run just because the seasonal models show hints of a Colder winter. If these seasonal models showed a milder winter people would be rubbishing them.