Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[phil nw.]

If nothing else the 3 main models have stepped back from sinking the high and any early return to south westerlies.There will be some frosts and cold days for some early next week as we pick up a surface cold flow from the continent

Regardless of surface conditions it does look like a dry period under a high for at least a week maybe longer.

It's worth keeping an eye on the bigger NH picture,although the high doesn't promise any deeper cold it's in a good position if further amplification kicks in upstream.

Edited November 26, 2016 by phil nw.

[Bullseye]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What's more important than snow

Anyway, the models, for the most part look settled and chilly..a good solid base to work with.

Doesn't this go against METO thoughts of unsettled start to December? I would have thought Atlantic fronts would have more influence on our weather than high pressure, that's if METO idea of unsettled start to Dec still stands. 

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Bullseye

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Doesn't this go against Ian/METO thoughts of unsettled start to December? I would have Atlantic fronts would have more influence on our weather than high pressure, that's if METO idea of unsettled start to Dec still stands. 

 

I was going by the Ecm 12z, the generally best performing model.which is well and truly settled. 

[phil nw.]

A few off topic posts have been removed.

Please keep to model discussion in here.

Thanks all.

[alexisj9]

34 minutes ago, Orpingtoniceagedec10 said:

With the persistent easterlies over the south east, when can we start thinking about lake effect snow ? I seem to remember this was how December 2010 started.

Depends on the uppers reaching cold over the south east, otherwise any moisture will just warm things up, or may be ice storm.

[stewfox]

Another day and another 24 hrs of model watching. 22 pages last 24 hrs shows a distinct improvement.

For newer members forget verification stats , the best measure if you’ are looking for cold is always… more pages = more cold forecast .

At this time of year 35+ pages plus shows very good potential  , if you come home to read 60 pages its  Dec 2010 has arrived. 10 pages its a barlett/winters over set up.

Anyway back to the models..

Last night it was like a morgue in the model discussion thread, which is where the ‘back ground signals’ will go if they don’t deliver this winter. The only crumb was that  no model was showing any resurgent jet stream

The new day

The day started at 4am for some folk with the GFS 0z

What’s happened, it’s a trip to the SPA for the GFS bringing in -8c 850s to a place called ‘Scotland’ at T180 although SM was not around at 5am to confirm but a new trend setter.

ECM throws in a stonking Atlantic ridge as its  heard about the Spa day offer. Is a cold northerly T168 still on ? .NAVGEM joins the party going ECM way  .

Of course members say its poor for ‘prolonged cold’ or it won’t snow too dry.’… As JH said cira 1924 .Ffks get the cold here first and then moan about how long the cold is going to stay or if it will snow IMBY.

More amplified pattern, no South westerlies next week .My mid day UKMO keeps high pressure over us and gets bullish, while the ECM and GFS attempt to move the high pressure north.

ECM More amplitude better cut back of the jet at T120, 

Forget 30th Nov forget mid /late dec its 4th dec  the new buzz word. And 200 members reduce their Dec CET forecast. The oracle SM announces he will speak at 3pm. Mean while with models chopping and changing so much someone suggest getting a chopping board

Into the afternoon UKMO and GFS both looking great, negatively tilted low, heights building.

No FI stella runs but better day for coldies

 GFS ENS ( now 12z) have totally changed the atlantic profile at 120 from a positive tilted NE jet flow to a blocked neg tilt..   Will the short wave in central USA be our friend ? ""More runs needed"" , I've heard that some where before ?

BUT many unanswered questions the  ECM operational is having none of the new found optimism.Toss****

All in all better then the sh** yesterday.

Cold 4 (2 back ground signals)

Thought for those that grab the prosaic at the end of the day when the models have been poor.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by stewfox

[karlos1983]

@stewfox legend!

[March]

1 hour ago, Banbury said:

Very rare you get mild and comfortable in Winter , normally milder weather in the form of SWlies brings , floods misery and insurance claims

 

Frost and Fog belong in Winter, its quite welcome IMBY

Not here. December 2015 was epic. I wore T-shirt in the garden in comfort multiple times and only had a few % above average precipitation! 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very similar to the operational..ergo..Anticyclonic domination, at least for southern uk. nothing sinister lurking in the Ecm woodshed!

Edited November 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The anomalies last evening were in pretty good agreement and that remains the case. And the det. run would also appear to be moving in this direction. I won't itemize the salient features of the  upstream as I assume by now everyone is familiar with it and downstream we have the Newfoundland trough and ridging adjacent to the UK so a period of drier weather with a fair diurnal and latitudinal variation in temperature which is pointless attempting to definitive about at this range as the orientation of the surface HP will be of some significance.

Looking further afield no significant change so perhaps  the dry and mostly settled weather will continue for a few more days.

Edited November 26, 2016 by knocker

[Downburst]

With at least a week of HP around these shores very much nailed, members will have to be patient. If I read the MJO correctly there is no clear signal forecast indicating specific likely changes, all very odd this year. The big talking point though is the dry weather compared to most years, great Autumn and leading into a potentially colder winter, what's not to like

 

[bluearmy]

Anyone with a minute  to spare  - the GEM ens control  run wins run of the month!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=276&mode=0&carte=1

AO drops to -6 on the 10th! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what is it though with GEM and the 850's? always way too high? surely colder than this

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone with a minute  to spare  - the GEM ens control  run wins run of the month!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=276&mode=0&carte=1

AO drops to -6 on the 10th! 

The vortex looks mangled .

[Summer Sun]

Very little rain over the coming week

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens to day 10

      

Good agreement on developing a negatively tilted trough at day 6, not really seeing a true cold signal at 850 level but heights remain over the UK. The Azores ridge only really shows its hand after day 8 which considering recent developments would cast an element of doubt as we could see the set up (Now at day 6) repeat come a nearer timeframe.

It seems to be a case of twiddling our thumbs waiting for a snowy solution whilst our rain gauges remain empty. I think we need to be patient as I think we will eventually get to where those who want cold want to be.

 

[weatherguy]

Decided to take off my grumpy cap tonight and be a tad more optimistic when looking at the 12z ECM, blame model fatigue for that! 

The +240h is absolutely full of potential:

The PV has that "H" shape to it, with heights from our end and the Pacific side extending to the Arctic, where the final lines of the PV await.  Extremely -AO looks the likely progression of this from the broader perspective.  Potentially good for us, but not a surefire thing of course.

Looking closer in our neck of the woods...

The angle of attack in the Atlantic is looking good as energy doesn't look like it has the capacity to flatten the developing ridge (+216 and +240 for reference below).  The base of the Atlantic trough becomes much sharper edged, and as such the feature looks primed to extend north, eventually, and hopefully, with one of those LP features sliding SE and opening up the prospect of cold slipping behind from the east.  

Plenty to be positive about here folks, lets see what the 18z has to offer 

[pip22]

Could the low of the west coast of Iberia move north-east enough to drag in the Easterly? 

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, March said:

Not here. December 2015 was epic. I wore T-shirt in the garden in comfort multiple times and only had a few % above average precipitation! 

That's not exactly difficult seeing you have picked the warmest December on record

[January Snowstorm]

Well the 18z continues the 'no man's land' of earlier runs. Not mild or cold just anticyclonic stalemate

Of course they scream potential but as of yet the orchard remains bare!

[igloo]

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well the 18z continues the 'no man's land' of earlier runs. Not mild or cold just anticyclonic stalemate

Of course they scream potential but as of yet the orchard remains bare!

 eventually at the 216h mark it spins up some very powerfull storms which then flatten everything in there path and continues on its defult settings nothing new anything past 144h is in the land of the fairies in all the models anyway

Edited November 26, 2016 by igloo

[Cleeve Hill]

These charts will bring quiet days of fog and frost, the precursor to proper winter weather. 

[swfc]

ecm and the 18z offer a dry cool period up to the 240 hour for what its worth.mundane but at least the rain keeps away!!!Then in fi gives us a slight easterly with ----poor 850s!!!!

Edited November 26, 2016 by swfc

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows some swly zephyrs through low res followed by a Euro high / slug.

[A Frayed Knot]

So all in all next week is going to be ice cold days with fog lingering with temps quite low ' give me that all winter ' better than this time last year with mild SW Winds and floods ' Game on and Winter has not even begun as of yet .

Finger crossed we see days like this ...Stunning