Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

How has it lost the plot? It could be right

Pass, Frosty...Maybe it's us that's 'lost the plot'?

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Pass, Frosty...Maybe it's us that's 'lost the plot'?

Maybe you are right Ed..I mean pete

Model fatigue and its not even winter yet, anyway, the high is welcome respite from the recent very unsettled weather.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

For newbies in terms of the ECM heres the T168hrs chart.

The red arrow is the warmer air heading north this normally helps to build high pressure to the east of that low, WAA to give it its more met term.

The black arrow is where you want to see some energy go from that low, this in terms of lower heights(lower pressure) gets underneath the high near the UK , this stops it sinking.

If all the energy from that low goes ne then effectively its like a weight on the high forcing it to sink.

 

 

[Frank Trough]

And in recent years the red arrow always wins. Black Friday, black arrow. It's time for a bit of luck. frosty and dry would suit me fine if that's how it has to be.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm normally provides a cold tease at T+240 but not this time, now that's a  long draw swly..think I preferred the old Ecm

Edited November 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[legritter]

I have said this before ,i will take what the main models say out to 168 hrs ,as thats a week away ,tomorrows rum  or should i say run will most likely be different again , i think perhaps the GFS as been on the Rum the last few days .Perhaps for now we are better off with nothing too cold or snowy in the charts ,just let things mature a bit and just wait to see what pops up more towards mid december , so another cliff hanger of a day , we are controled by computer weather models gang , great posts great forum , Stellas all round cheers .

 

[Blessed Weather]

45 minutes ago, knocker said:

Which transposed to the surface means

Yes Knocker, but my Cohen GEFS tweet was for the period 6th to the 10th Dec. And it shows the cold coming into Scandinavia and Europe as per what the tweet states. The important thing is, if you then look forward ahead, as per the ECM weekly update from today, it suggests that the cold air then moves further south and west so that nearly all of northern Europe becomes pretty darn cold. To save people looking back I'll post both illustrations again:

 

[Matthew.]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm normally provides a cold tease at T+240 but not this time, now that's a  long draw swly..think I preferred the old Ecm

In all seriousness frosty i think this happening is very low. Calm and frosty is the name of the game and emphasis on some very cold nights  in the reliable. Hoarfrost looks widespreadibly possible monday into tuesday looking at the latest temps if we get some nighttime fog in the mixTomorrows run hopefully want throw me off my chair like tonights!

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes Knocker, but my Cohen GEFS tweet was for the period 6th to the 10th Dec.

 

 

Yes indeed BW and my post was for that period as well.

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Tomorrow's run hopefully won't throw me off my chair like tonight's!

All joking aside I know the Ecm upgrade is a very welcome addition as it introduces a dynamic sea-ice model and increases the resolution of the ocean model among other features. I just don't want to see charts like this which are a cruel reminder of last December!

Edited November 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[stewfox]

23 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Great post, very funny. I hope you'll be doing this nightly throughout the winter.  

It’s not been a good 23hrs nick.

7 pages last 23 hrs shows a distinct lack of excitement.

Last nights 18z showed its face and was given short shrift, so no' lock in' on that pub run, most members went home well before closing  , saying well its better than a Barlett

Those pesky short waves remained creating merry hell. The GFS ops were all over the place one too many whiskies.

So a new day , Black Friday……Very apt

Remember GFS charts 0Z 6z and 12z charts crawled back to a ECM solution yesterday. Unfortunately, the UKMO ended up in hospital alone, when the GFS 12z should have joined it, Which is a reminder, let the updates run their course before knee jerk comments after 4 seconds into the run. These have consequences for the models and the very early summary by members for the 12Z were far too positive.

Today GFS 0z,6z,  s*** more back tracking then Donald Trump and the northerly has gone to bed

But Wait GFS 12z makes up for yesterday’s crap and gives us a northerly at T210 and a hurricane at T264  , its saying to us. Will keep these F***** on here till May.

ECM showed lots of cold air around, wow ! not here though, ‘maybe a easterly T168 ?’ Nope its sh** . If your looking for cold ignore the most reliable model recently. Even at T240 it shows mild. Hospital food awaits for that F*** model.

GEM + amplitude+ short wave lets see how that goes at T168.

UKMO may work with a few tweaks , sure dynamite required

Models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal.(no sh** Sherlock)

Where is that high going to settle next week watch this space.?

Folks talking of front loaded winter went into hiding today… mid December late December is now in vogue for cold

Tamara patience is the key and some other stuff.

Cold 2/10 (2 for background signals)

On a positive note Dzalinda (Russia) forum members are horrified at the lack of diurnal range. got a max of -38.8c and minimum of  -44.9c yesterday poor sods.

Edited November 25, 2016 by stewfox

[london-snow]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM is as dreadful as it gets tonight with the UK thrust into very very mild air post day 8-

There hasnt been 1 decent cold outlook from the ECM since it landed this week & it  has thus far easily pegged the GFS which has continually backtracked on any cold-

The only crumb of comfort is all the mildness comes day 9 / 10 with opportunity of change to a colder blocked high still flagging at 168...

very poor couple of days models....

Steve sorry it is not a very poor couple of days models as their only spewing out data every other hour and produce a mean cold, mild, hot. wind. rain. snow. sleet. ect ect...

What is fustrating for me however is these posts that call for a change to a cold pattern at 10+ days away (yes I know you have your science behind your reasoning and respect that but don't you or mods think that should be for the lrf's thread?) as a lot of people who takes pros talk for gospel and hang on it usually end up disappointed.

personaly :

i am all for a cold and snowy winter however lrf's and such statements should never be taken gospel which people has done so already such as +4 weeks down the line. cohen predicts and fergie this or gp predicts that. Dispite and I love reading their take on proceedings going forward these posts should be valid in the lrf prediction territory and if wrong never mind. However mod thread a popular thread this time of year and we get a lot of let's say 'long time listeners and no posters' who are facinated by winter weather come here daily to check what popular posters are saying and from my prospective it's wrong telling your grandma to prepare for cold weather +2-4 weeks in advance. 

[Singularity]

This is as far as I'd pay much attention to the ECM 12z; the way the secondary low then moves east on the N. flank of the longwave Atlantic trough is unconvincing. Having said that, the notion of strong height rises across Europe does tie in with the analogues for a tropical wave moving through the Maritime Continent in December (phases 4-5)... but the important thing to note is how you have that signal for Pacific ridges to shift poleward during this period and attack the vortex, resulting in height rises N of the UK by the time the MJO is on it's way out of the Maritime Continent (leaving 5) and into the W. Pacific (entering phase 6; bear in mind that the response takes time to propagate from the tropics, yet AFAIK these plots show composites with no lag applied). 

 - - - > - - - > 

Now if we could see the Nino-like atmosphere allow for a bit of extra amplification during the 4-5 transit, we could convert the scene in the analogues to one of blocking right up through Scandinavia, but it'll take some doing to overcome the invigorated Atlantic jet - as the ECM 12z shows.

It would be downright odd to manage to go some 4 weeks in the run-up to a cold weather outbreak without seeing some mild, Atlantic driven weather. I'm only even giving such an eventuality much consideration because of the unprecedented weakness and disorganisation of the vortex for late Nov - early Dec.

 

[stewfox]

10 minutes ago, london-snow said:

it's wrong telling your grandma to prepare for cold weather +2-4 weeks in advance. 

but not for mother in laws , then they wont visit for Christmas

[Polar Maritime]

And back to the Models..

[mulzy]

Very similar ECM eps day 10 mean chart to this morning.

The extended eps broadly similar across the Atlantic sector with the signals obviously diluting a little.

[Weather Observer]

I agree with the frustration of some on here with the preoccupation with long term signals. It's like watching a movie where you see the smoke machine churning out fog in the foreground while the wood beyond is clear as a bell. By the time you get through the fog to the wood it has disappeared. 

Edited November 25, 2016 by Weathervane
Clarity

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very similar ECM eps day 10 mean chart to this morning.

The extended eps broadly similar across the Atlantic sector with the signals obviously diluting a little.

So nothing remotely decent even right at the end?

[knocker]

The anomalies this evening are very much more on the same page than they have been recently so maybe, just maybe, some light at the end of this, albeit short, tunnel

The upstream pattern is an upper low north of Alaska with associated trough with the ridge in the eastern Pacific south of that. With the HP norther Canada as strong as ever there is an energy flow across the southern States and exiting via the trough south of Newfoundland. There is some variance how this handled by the GEFS and EPS which reflects a little in the ridging in the eastern Atlantic adjacent to the UK. The upshot of all this should be a period of drier weather and with upper winds from the W/SW and sourced from the southern States temperatures a little above average.

The main difference as we move forward into the 10-15 period is that the Pacific ridge retrogresses and intensifies and the trough in the US does likewise but the GEFS and EPS are handling this differently which will effect the upstream forcing and thus the downstream evolution. At the moment we looking at not much change from the 6-10 but in the pending file

[The PIT]

Well the ecm got this higher pressure nailed on and the gfs followed. Nothing to say it hasn't got the blow torch south westerlies bang on either although thankfully deep FI so it could change it's mind tomorrow. Although it wouldn't be surprising now that we enter winter the ideal charts we had in Autumn disappear altogether and we end up with rubbish. If it going to be mild please be stormy. Noticed the words of Winter doom in the last few days. Building blocks and be patient were slipping into the vocabulary. The ECM eps day 10 mean shows signs of the vortex trying to get it's act together. 

[snowfall09]

Here's the BBC's thoughts on the long term model output 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38112506

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The anomalies this evening are very much more on the same page than they have been recently so maybe, just maybe, some light at the end of this, albeit short, tunnel

The upstream pattern is an upper low north of Alaska with associated trough with the ridge in the eastern Pacific south of that. With the HP norther Canada as strong as ever there is an energy flow across the southern States and exiting via the trough south of Newfoundland. There is some variance how this handled by the GEFS and EPS which reflects a little in the ridging in the eastern Atlantic adjacent to the UK. The upshot of all this should be a period of drier weather and with upper winds from the W/SW and sourced from the southern States temperatures a little above average.

The main difference as we move forward into the 10-15 period is that the Pacific ridge retrogresses and intensifies and the trough in the US does likewise but the GEFS and EPS are handling this differently which will effect the upstream forcing and thus the downstream evolution. At the moment we looking at not much change from the 6-10 but in the pending file

Off the 10-15 day chart then, is this the evolution that "could" lead to the colder middle of Dec that some are mentioning? Will the block come from the other side Alaskan side to create a poss pole heights/block?

[mulzy]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So nothing remotely decent even right at the end?

Broadly, the extended range is similar to the day 10 pattern (at least over the Atlantic sector).  No sign of any cheer for the coldies at the moment.

Edited November 25, 2016 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So nothing remotely decent even right at the end?

Well it does evolve closely to the ec46 which can't be a bad thing going forward

in my opinion, this extended run increases the likelihood of amplification to our west in the 10/15 day period and a potential polar split thereafter with the aleutian ridge strengthening. 

[weatherguy]

Hmm, anyone seen any good BBQs on sale this Black Friday? Asking for a friend.