Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Iceaxecrampon]

Pick of the 12Z  - OK it's at T213  - Scandi LP opening the pipeline?

Edited November 25, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[booferking]

More support growing in the GFS 12 Ens for the Northerly. It not over to the fat lady sings

Edited November 25, 2016 by booferking

[David Morse]

Not surprising to see the 12z GFS revert back to a more cold theme from this morning's 6z which shows that the operational run was the outlier.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

@MattHugo or @fergieweather in your honest opinions can you see the potential for a big easterly, second half of Dec?

[MattH]

Answering the E'ly question and essentially impossible to say. Given longer term signal for northern blocking then would suggest it's a greater possibility than  compared with 12 months back...

Mainly all I want to say is don't get caught up on individual model runs, despite many doing. At the moment the medium and longer term is highly uncertain and anything could crop up, as exampled by the spread in the 12z GEFS

Regards, Matt. 

Edited November 25, 2016 by MattHugo

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

4 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Answering the E'ly question and essentially impossible to say. Given longer term signal for northern blocking then would suggest it's a greater possibility than  compared with 12 months back...

Mainly all I want to say is don't get caught up on individual model runs, despite many doing. At the moment the medium and longer term is highly uncertain and anything could crop up, as exampled by the spread in the 12z GEFS

Regards, Matt. 

Thank you very much, yep definitely much better than last Decembers 'weather nightmare'.

[gottolovethisweather]

23 hours ago, knocker said:

A pleasant start to December

 

 

 

 

Supposedly replying to Matt's post above and not Knocker's knock above at colder weather through D6 to D10 timescales, but the Beeb are showing an Easterly is likely as soon as this coming Monday, not a cold one initially, of course. Thereafter, who knows but currently we have a chance of an extended period of HP influence or a flow from NW to NE, only time will tell. It won't be mild and there is still no sign of a rampant Atlantic. All good news for coldies. Ditch jumping on every run and put more trust in the 0z and the 12zs is what I say.

Edited November 25, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Tom Jarvis]

big diffrences over canada on ecm. wonder where this will lead to.

 

 

 

 

[weirpig]

Well you can see the dividing line between the warm and cold air  it's the exact shape as the outline of Britain. Is someone having a laugh 

[booferking]

ECM toying with different outputs so nothing set on stone as of yet, the frames around 120hr mark look to have moved slightly towards the GFS.

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

big diffrences over canada on ecm. wonder where this will lead to.

the model struggling to resolve the amplification right around the NH. difficult to know which direction it will take although broadly we stay with the same outcome !

[Day 10]

216 ECM much better than this morning if looking for cold

[Tom Jarvis]

close but no cigar on the ecm. if the high was just slightly stronger and that low went under the block rather then ramp up and sweep it away it would be a good run. not much needs to change for that to happen so no prozac needed just yet

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

216 ECM much better than this morning if looking for cold

How..so?Looks..like..a..zonal..onslaught..incoming....very+NAO..setting-up..for..Dec..

yup,day..10..is..dreadful.

Edited November 25, 2016 by northwestsnow

[SMU]

On 24/11/2016 at 16:45, frosty ground said:

Now aren't these based at least in part on the very same GFS Runs?

[knocker]

3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, we must keep our spirits up! GEFS 11-15 day forecast:

"Northerly flow directed at Scandinavia around main #polarvortex center suggests #cold weather for Northern Europe soon after #winter starts."
Dr. Cohen.

 

Which transposed to the surface means

Edited November 25, 2016 by knocker

[SMU]

ECM is as dreadful as it gets tonight with the UK thrust into very very mild air post day 8-

There hasnt been 1 decent cold outlook from the ECM since it landed this week & it  has thus far easily pegged the GFS which has continually backtracked on any cold-

The only crumb of comfort is all the mildness comes day 9 / 10 with opportunity of change to a colder blocked high still flagging at 168...

very poor couple of days models....

[nick sussex]

At one point in the ECM you had a chance for the Scandi high but too much energy then spills over the top after T168hrs.

Quite remarkable to see the PV not in its normal position and yet still the UK's forcefield against cold manages to stay intact for the last few weeks, at T240hrs the ECM has a lot more amplification developing over the east Pacific but this will take some time to remove the hideous pattern from the Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those ECM ensembles show temps in the high teens given the blow torch warmth heading in from the tropics around the Euro high.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

How..so?Looks..like..a..zonal..onslaught..incoming....very+NAO..setting-up..for..Dec..

The run is definitely better than this mornings ECM. Very finely balanced between good and bad.

[gottolovethisweather]

Post D7 tonight's ECM has lost the plot! Still, all to play for IMHO and will reanalyse things again come Monday after the weekend wobbles, but I do think HP dominance will likely continue into the first week of December.

Edited November 25, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Post D7 tonight's ECM has lost the plot! 

How has it lost the plot? It could be right

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 at D10 it's GFS cold v GEM and ECM mild

[nick sussex]

As Steve points out our hopes re a blocking high are flagging at T168hrs and that's the last chance saloon, that's the point in which we can pull back from the brink and avoid the blowtorch warmth that will happen if some energy doesn't head se rather than just ne.

Keep an eye on the ECM ensembles to see if theres any mileage and if we see a cluster bringing in some colder conditions to De Bilt around day 8.

Its a shame that upstream amplification in the Pacific is going to come too late and indeed as that works east its likely to pull that troughing to the west further ne then north so to get to anything interesting from day ten of the ECM operational theres likely to be a spell of very mild conditions before that.

The ECM unfortunately seems to be settling down and is more consistent than the GFS which isn't want we want to see. So its down to that T168 to T192hrs, if you like cold start praying that we see some trough disruption to support the high getting further north.

Which reminds me what time is the late evening mass at Lourdes?!

 

 

[Matthew.]

Day 10 on the ECM is nothing but daffodils if it keeps up for long enough. Must say I wasn't expecting that!

[Frosty.]

Just now, Matthew Wilson said:

 Must say I wasn't expecting that!

You must expect the unexpected when it comes to the uk weather.