Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, there's still no organised polar vortex, and even the parts that are trying to get it together, are over Russia instead. 

We could see a greenie high later in this run, otherwise it's high pressure all the way

[Ali1977]

Already looks different with a little high forming SW of Greenland 

Could we pull a block to the Nortb on this run I wonder, totally expect a jump to cold soon - this soon would be perfect thanks!!! 

Edited November 25, 2016 by Ali1977

[Smiler1709]

I'm no expert but the models seem to really be struggling to cope with what's happening in the atmosphere. Wild swings from mild to cold has turned us all inside out.

 

longer term outlook still looks good and I truely believe we could be in for a big shock, with a sudden model output picking up a trend in the reliable time frame which puts us in the freezer. Call me mad but I've never witnessed such differences with each run. 

 

I for one can feel a difference between last winter and this winter mainly due to the low rainfall amounts and calmer days. Big things are round the corner and my money is on mid December. 

 

 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Already looks different with a little high forming SW of Greenland 

Certainly is, 180 chart look north again

[weirpig]

Gfs with the northerly love in again 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Smiler1709 said:

I'm no expert but the models seem to really be struggling to cope with what's happening in the atmosphere. Wild swings from mild to cold has turned us all inside out.

 

longer term outlook still looks good and I truely believe we could be in for a big shock, with a sudden model output picking up a trend in the reliable time frame which puts us in the freezer. Call me mad but I've never witnessed such differences with each run. 

 

I for one can feel a difference between last winter and this winter mainly due to the low rainfall amounts and calmer days. Big things are round the corner and my money is on mid December. 

 

 

I reckon you've sussed it, S: no model can decide upon which side of a concertinaed jet-stream we'll be on - at any given time...One for the history books, perhaps?

[bluearmy]

With respect to flipping and flopping, the ecm op hasn't done much of that pre day 9 at least (and very much so since it become operational on Tuesday)

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

With respect to flipping and flopping, the ecm op hasn't done much of that pre day 9 at least (and very much so since it become operational on Tuesday)

True, could change though. GFS about to get the forum buzzing again - until the ECM anyway. 

What is this heading into Greenland !! 

Edited November 25, 2016 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

True, could change though. GFS about to get the forum buzzing again - until the ECM anyway. 

Twice bitten, thrice shy with the GFS. Until the ECM boss is on board, I will take anything it shows with a large dose of salt.

[Singularity]

Great to see you making such an upbeat post Tamara. I'm daring to dream a little too, and would unite like to hang my cautious hat up on the hook sometime in the next 20 days - though I'd still be putting it back on at times for any snow events coming into view

12z GFS has decided to take that shortwave that was loitering just S of Greenland on previous runs and scoot it across to Scandinavia. So the drama continues...

[Ravelin]

Posted with @mountain shadow 's large dose of salt, GFS 12Z at t210...

Do we believe it, or do we not?

[Daniel*]

We've gone from a balmy southerly to a rather cold northerly on GFS 12z a total 180 flip. 

[Day 10]

Arctic floodgates once again! LOL

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Twice bitten, thrice shy with the GFS. Until the ECM boss is on board, I will take anything it shows with a large dose of salt.

You might need a large dose of salt to clear the drive in a few frames!!! I know what you mean though!! Peter and the Wolf springs to mind - eventually though!!

after all the 12z is meant to be the most accurate isn't it?

Edited November 25, 2016 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Already looks different with a little high forming SW of Greenland 

Could we pull a block to the Nortb on this run I wonder, totally expect a jump to cold soon - this soon would be perfect thanks!!! 

Down to detail from here but blocking to NW a building theme again.  I am of the opinion that there'll be a lot more cold conditions around than mild.  I think the GFS is getting a feel for the way ahead.  Because of the vortex set up or lack of I don't think we will get a 'clean' set up like a prolonged Scandi or GHP.  Amplified yes, and although the GFS run seems chaotic I think chaotic could be a decent description of the pattern ahead.

Those feelings remain and yes 12z likes it !  Expect more ups and downs but very nice to see the 12z  come back. Normally when GFS flips it doesn't come back with a vengeance so chances are there

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Great to see you making such an upbeat post Tamara. I'm daring to dream a little too, and would unite like to hang my cautious hat up on the hook sometime in the next 20 days - though I'd still be putting it back on at times for any snow events coming into view

12z GFS has decided to take that shortwave that was loitering just S of Greenland on previous runs and scoot it across to Scandinavia. So the drama continues...

That is not quite correct as it did exactly the same on the 06z run and it sure wasn't loitering.

EDIT

I mention that it wasn't loitering because this is the area where much of the forcing is taking place with energy emitted from the SW and NW phasing in and the upper trough(s) deconstructing.

Edited November 25, 2016 by knocker

[Johnp]

At 264 hrs I see the GFS has decided to invent a hurricane to try and blast our block away!

[Ali1977]

Northerly into Scandy block and a Easterly I wonder - I am fully aware this looks dodgy but it's plausible and it'll be nice to see a cold set of ENS if they follow.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Ali1977

[malc]

Another flip flop, but isnt this what the experts have been saying to expect as the models struggle/get to grips? Expect more and dont get hung up on daily runs to avoid heartache!

[Methuselah]

Well then, after nearly two hours spent watching the GFS come to nothing more than it did this morning, I will, ironically enough, bugger-off and watch Pointless!

[bluearmy]

A glancing blow from the trough headed se as the Atlantic ridge amplifies and ends up on a nw/se axis to our west is not a solution which I believe would find too much difficulty with the ecm output recently. Would give a pretty cold solution for the uk but not the white stuff peeps are craving

Note the ops (all main models) are messing around with undercutting the Atlantic ridge and splitting the flow. The models could easily get the split flow wrong re how much goes in which direction.

that explains much of the flip flopping I guess 

[Nick Phillips]

11 hours ago, Singularity said:

Great to see you making such an upbeat post Tamara. I'm daring to dream a little too, and would unite like to hang my cautious hat up on the hook sometime in the next 20 days - though I'd still be putting it back on at times for any snow events coming into view

12z GFS has decided to take that shortwave that was loitering just S of Greenland on previous runs and scoot it across to Scandinavia. So the drama continues...

Hi both, thanks for your posts, l don't understand half but it's helping me advance, alibi slowly!

 

[knocker]

How about this for an Omega block

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

How about this for an Omega block

A little to the nw please 

[nick sussex]

The GFS says yes to something colder, the UKMO says no and the GEM which said yes this morning now says no!

The only output which seems consistent is the UKMO , doesn't mean its right but that's not been interested in anything for the last 2 days and the ECM ensemble  mean this morning disappointingly looked very much like the underwhelming UKMO output.

Unfortunately the UKMO has the reputation for never verifying if it shows something colder at T144hrs against the others but has a much better track record at being correct if it shows the milder outcome.

With that in mind unless the ECM resolutely comes down against the UKMO later then I fear the GFS is turning into the fading starlet from Sunset Boulevard, desperate for attention but unable to accept that  no ones interested anymore!