Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[weirpig]

It amazing really  that at only 120  the control and Opp  read the shortwave in the atlantic totally different.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Poor is an understatement - it's horrific!!  Euro high sets up shop and stays put like it usually does!

I think we need to reign in expectations for the first half of December.  The longer range models are hinting at height rises to the north so hope is still very much alive.

 

lol...I think I'll wait and see how the weather rolls out before reaching for my cutthroat razor!

[warrenb]

To be honest, the models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal.

I believe this is a consequence of records low sea ice, record cold Siberia, QBO being stuck and lack of PV organisation.

It is unprecedented, and believe we have hit a tipping point in the climate which cannot be resolved by the models.

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Poor is an understatement - it's horrific!!  Euro high sets up shop and stays put like it usually does!

I think we need to reign in expectations for the first half of December.  The longer range models are hinting at height rises to the north so hope is still very much alive.

 

The 6z has also gone downhill stratospherically. The vortex is returning to the Arctic as we move into December.

Not many positives to take from that.

[Summer Sun]

Huge difference between the Op and mean on the 00z I think it's fair to say the Op was on the cold side as we move through December....

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Singularity]

Okay. I get that as the stratospheric vortex stretches out toward N. America as the wave 2 attack builds, there might be some enhancement to westerly mobility in the Atlantic sector, this helped along by the fact that during periods of strong poleward wave flux the AO can head neutral to at times positive... but the GFS 06z looks way overblown in terms of the magnitude of response. Feedback loops spiraling out of control.

By contrast, the 00z produced phenomenal blocking to have a good go at fending off the westerlies and if anything that seemed too far in the other direction.

The ECM 00z is close to a good balance. As I said last night - my main hope for the lead-up to mid-Dec potential is fending off the wind and rain as much as possible while the major poleward transport of heat and moisture takes place (which admittedly looks tragic for the sea ice situation - if we were all incredibly selfless individuals we'd be hoping for as little poleward heat flux as possible to save the Arctic... or at least we would if that made a jot of difference to what the weather got up to ).

[Gael_Force]

22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The developments over the last week prove that weather cannot be forecast beyond about 7 days.

To be fair Ian and GP always advise that it's a trend at most. 

Recent mid term modelling, it seems, has been messed by abnormal heat and low ice in the arctic. I think we'll need to wait a bit to see where it all goes when the normal winter ice cover has taken place. A few did warn about basing longer term thoughts on this but it all looked so promising at the time. Question now: will all the supposed good feedbacks do their job in winter proper?

[weirpig]

Well control still keeping the faith   and not a badish mean.

Edited November 25, 2016 by weirpig

[Johnp]

Having looked at several random ensembles, I think the Op is going to prove to be a big outlier.

Lots of big northerlies still in the mix.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Johnp said:

Having looked at several random ensembles, I think the Op is going to prove to be a big outlier.

Lots of big northerlies still in the mix.

To me, the ensembles in the 180-192 range look a big downgrade, I think we'd be better here just hoping that the end of the runs show a few more dropping over the next few days to hopefully reflect the EC46 run last night.

[Summer Sun]

We've gone from cold to the blow torch in a matter of hours

[Singularity]

Let's not overlook the impressive warming in the upper stratosphere already nicely underway by +7 days:

  

Which also hits hard right at the top, with a typical lag time:

 

 

...so the issue for mid-Dec is whether tropical forcing can assault the lower & tropospheric vortex enough to prevent it consolidating for long and ideally force a split with Pacific-Atlantic cross-polar ridging as per GP's thoughts - which is a matter of getting the tropical wave into the W Pacific soon enough.

Given GFS/GEFS' horrendous errors of late with tropical forcing at 10-16 day's range (it's been as much as 2 standard deviations below the actual outcome for GLAAM!), I don't expect it to be of much use for picking out which way things will go. Whenever an individual run manages to propagate the tropical forcing more like is anticipated, a run like the 00z may crop up, otherwise we could see a fair few more like the 06z. This... may be painful to watch at times 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We've gone from cold to the blow torch in a matter of hours

Transition phase, I expect a few days of this then FI will look a whole lot better !! 

[karyo]

18 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Recent mid term modelling, it seems, has been messed by abnormal heat and low ice in the arctic. I think we'll need to wait a bit to see where it all goes when the normal winter ice cover has taken place. A few did warn about basing longer term thoughts on this but it all looked so promising at the time. Question now: will all the supposed good feedbacks do their job in winter proper?

I can't see the Arctic ice returning to normal this winter. It has been on record low for many weeks now.

I dread to think what the coming summer will look like up there. 

[Singularity]

10 hours ago, fergieweather said:

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

The last time these two models (well, their ancestors) were so consistent with such a signal for so long was surely in the run-up to Nov-Dec 2010? 

Just sayin' 

With EC looking interesting week 3 onward, that's 10th Dec onward, and the latest GFS stops on that date, with the Arctic profile just starting to break up again. 

If that doesn't calm some peoples' nerves, I don't know what will.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Singularity

[terrier]

Think some people need to relax a little bit. Yes the gfs06z isn't a great run. But I'm sure I've just checked my calendar and it's only the 25th of November. 7 days is a long way in model output a lot can and will change. With the noises coming from the professionals on this site I think as we enter winter proper we could see some nice charts cropping up. Just a case of hanging in there and not to over analyse every signal model run. 

[Ventnor Viking]

A mild GFS run today - I have to say the GFS has been in poor form lately with finding any consistency even to relatively short time frames. There are many things, as ive mentioned before, that the GFS cant forecast and isn't programmed to until fairly short notice like a SSW etc.

Im more intrigued by the Met Offices model as the models available to us are really struggling which is very tiring, that said Ill still be watching like a donut!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

I think I'm liking the GEFS mean though at 300, I will explain in a while - probably wont be reflected in 850mb graph form - yet.

[booferking]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think I'm liking the GEFS mean though at 300, I will explain in a while - probably wont be reflected in 850mb graph form - yet.

Scandi high me thinks. Building heights towards i mean

Edited November 25, 2016 by booferking

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The last time these two models (well, their ancestors) were so consistent with such a signal for so long was surely in the run-up to Nov-Dec 2010? 

Just sayin' 

With EC looking interesting week 3 onward, that's 10th Dec onward, and the latest GFS stops on that date, with the Arctic profile just starting to break up again. 

If that doesn't calm some peoples' nerves, I don't know what will.

Agree, people shouldn't ignore these signals and be ready for something better showing up v soon

[Paul]

Some posts have been hidden, can we keep it both friendly, and model related please.

[Ventnor Viking]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Some posts have been hidden, can we keep it both friendly, and model related please.

Hi Paul

Apologies no offence was intended I was merely being factual about how arctic ice could influence the atmosphere....

thanks

[Daniel*]

 

Keep the faith, I think the MetO have a tone of confidence, ironically the short-medium range is causing more of a headache, I'm not a fan of this erratic behaviour in model output but this is typical when cold solutions wants to bubble to the surface. I'm fairly convinced there will be no proper cold spell early Dec a northerly snap is all, good if it rocks your boat. In real wintry blasts they're usually the first to pick it up.

Throwback to December 2015? Not to fret it will be gone come the next one 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

The developments over the last week prove that weather cannot be forecast beyond about 7 days.

I would caveat that statement, buy adding by the GFS to the end of it.

The ECM has performed very well, particularly the ensembles. The GEFS on the other has and continues to churn out means showing a Northerly when it just isn't going to happen.

[Bobd29]

I do think the last two posts from Fergie and Singularity are an excellent summary of short term difficulties facing the models as they try to find their way to a realistic outcome ahead. I have not seen such vagaries in the global atmosphere before and it is not surprising that the models cannot get any long term consistency in their forecasts, but as winter progresses and the pattern stabilises I expect the models to settle more.....from Fergies comments looks like we need another couple of weeks, then we shall see. Meantime enjoy the swings and chill, model watching is nothing if not interesting this year!