Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[A.J]

54 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really! Tonight was positively happy compared to some I've known. And anyway we're not supposed to be totally sane or deliver emotionless posts, that's part of the appeal of the thread. If you think tonight was bad wait for the next easterly drama with -15 uppers shown hurtling towards the UK only to be scuppered by a misbehaving shortwave!

Actually really......some of the posting is ridiculously OTT, and as has been requested god knows how many times over the years, sensible model discussion is encouraged. There are plenty of other threads on NW if anyone wishes to moan about the weather or compile posts which would otherwise be considered off topic in this thread...One-liners, over-negative/over dramatic posts have absolutely no place in this thread, all it does it help derail the thread and put off people from posting, as well as giving inaccurate information regarding the outputs...stewfox's ironic post (which you liked) is a perfect example of what I'm talking about  ....as I've mentioned recently, a bit of character and sense of humour & passion is certainly an advantage in this thread, but there is a difference between that and the melodramatic stuff that gets posted......personally I'd love a bunch of charts showing snow that actually verifies, but I won't lose any sleep if it doesn't, unlike some seemingly!

Edited November 25, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Pixel]

SAME thing happens within the model thread every year..

Someone's expectations are publicly burnt at the stake and others worries are drowned in a lake - and then the thread starts again with the mods warning everyone to behave - then it happens again.

...been there, read it slept in the t-shirt. 

We're living on an Island where the main topic of conversation is the weather, like it or not. THREE days forecast is the acceptable hope (but not specifically in a small back yard 3 miles north of croydon et al) we have to see the bigger picture which as it turns out isn't as easy as it sounds.  Long term influences, trend and analytical observations way beyond the understanding of folk like me are WHY we're here on this fab forum

Behave, be polite, ask questions and learn

 

Over-and-out for yet another year

 

 

[igloo]

i think the mods need to start the moan thread once again like last season which helped a good deal hint hint,anyway i dont no any model which can forecast the weather in 3 days never mind trying to forecast something in 4 weeks time nothing is certain bar tax and death unfortunately for sure the models will show something completley different later today

[lassie23]

John Hammond sums things up nicely in his weather for the week ahead. He says the weather models are in disarray and he can't call whether cold or mild will win out. So expect a lot more flip flops to come in here.

[Mucka]

Good consistency between GFS 18z and this mornings 00z which isn't great if we still hoped for the Northerly

Shortwave parks itself in just the wrong place again, only minor difference is the pattern is a little sharper and so a touch further West 

 

UKMO is flatter so little encouragement there for a quick route to cold

GEM not a million miles from GFS at 120, just with different timing of the shortwaves running over the ridge meaning one doesn't park in the worse possible place for amplification as with GFS.

Bit of an outsider that but it shows how small differences in shortwave development and timing can bring very different results for us.

 

GFS FI, again good consistency overall with the 18z.

So it is pretty much as you were from last night with some good news and not so good news for the mid term but overall big picture looking promising for cold weather fans with several possible routes to cold.

What we really need to see though is a cold set up modeled with some consistency and to get inside the 144 range.

 

GFS ensembles suggest this northerly saga still has some legs yet.

At 144 some are better placed than 18z and some worse placed to bring a Northerly but overall they are around 15% improved by my rough rule of thumb.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Many posts have had to go as off topic and are not suited to this thread. Hundreds of members log in here for constructive Model Discussion every day and so that is what we like to deliver/uphold. 

Please think before posting, As any 1 liners/Point scoring/Moaning/Ramping or use of over-emotion will be removed to keep the thread clean/clear and educational, There is also a Winter Hopes/thoughts thread already open and now a Model moan/ramp thread..

Please continue discussions on what the Model Outputs are showing,

Thanks.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[The PIT]

Models continuing the rather uninteresting theme. Fairly quiet weather any cold just missing the uk same with mild. Word of warning for those who think blocking = automatic cold. It depends where the block sets up we could end up with weeks of mild rubbish as well.

[SteveB]

I suspect we will start to see some better model runs over the next couple of day's regarding the northerly around the 4th December.

It was consistently modelled until the models started picking up the short waves, hopefully the northerly signal will be picked up again soon.

Loving the long range signals for late December, would really be something special to see snow for all at Christmas, might be worth a cheeky £5 bet

Edited November 25, 2016 by SteveB

[Nick F]

Is a rather lacklustre 00z GFS op for cold and snow lovers, the jet just won't amplify enough and is tracking a little too far north. Still, swings in the model output over recent days may mean there's still some hope ...

[ArHu3]

44 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Models continuing the rather uninteresting theme. Fairly quiet weather any cold just missing the uk same with mild. Word of warning for those who think blocking = automatic cold. It depends where the block sets up we could end up with weeks of mild rubbish as well.

Edited November 25, 2016 by ArHu3
I want to enter text in message but can't. Doesn't look boring to me but rather exciting even: we just needs a small change from this setup to a scandi or greenland high

[Ali1977]

ECM never really loses the high pressure upto 168 on this run - the high looks to be slowly edging north now so could be decent long term. High is dry, that's good for a start - with plenty of frosts.

[daz_4]

Good run from ECM this morning. Majority of Europe below average, lot of cold air around. Great for mountains as it would allow snowpack to build. Nice starting point I think 

[knocker]

Today

Not dissimilar to yesterday except less cloud in England and Wales except perhaps the NE coast. Still quite breezy in the south with an easterly wind which make it fell a tad more cold than it actually is The actual temps will range from around average in the south to quite cool in N. Ireland and Scotland where there is a widespread frost this morning with some freezing fog in places which may not clear.

Now the GFS

Upstream forcing is initially as before pushing the high pressure east to form a cell over the UK by 12z Monday and the trough to the SE of Greenland attempting to phase with the trough(s) to the south west of the UK and form a new one in Mid Atlantic

It fails to do this as amplification is renewed with a lot of energy swinging around the Canadian HP and east from the southern States forming a another trough running south from Newfoundland and once more forcing the ridging Azores HP NE to be orientated west-east in the eastern Atlantic Simultaneously it forces the energy tracking east over Greenland to travel further east before slipping south east and thus avoiding the UK

You will have noticed another trough has formed south of Greenland and this runs NE to negatively tilted to the NW of the UK by Sunday. How does all of this translate to surface weather for the UK. The latter will remain under the influence of high Pressure but this will start to break down on Tuesday as fronts swing in from the west over Scotland. In the next couple of days a depression tracks SE into the north North Sea which introduces a strong NE wind with perhaps severe gales over Scotland accompanied by periods of rain, perhaps snow on the high ground. Thereafter a brief resurgence of the high pressure before unsettled weather arrives generally by the weekend. Temps initially cold and below average but next week more like average and even a little above

Edited November 25, 2016 by knocker

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Good run from ECM this morning. Majority of Europe below average, lot of cold air around. Great for mountains as it would allow snowpack to build. Nice starting point I think 

I disagree. I think it's a shocker!

Probably the worst operational in a long time?

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I disagree. I think it's a shocker!

Probably the worst operational in a long time?

Well, at least it will remain dry and chilly in the south with overnight frosts through next week, some cloud and rain in the north mid-week as Atlantic fronts return and winds turn westerly for a time here, before high pressure builds back in for all to end the week. The 500mb vortex gathering strength over Greenland toward the end of the run not such a nice sight though.

[Seasonality]

22 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Good run from ECM this morning. Majority of Europe below average, lot of cold air around. Great for mountains as it would allow snowpack to build. Nice starting point I think 

Yes. Good continuing cold for the Central and Eastern European contingent. From 72h to 240h here as an example. Very pleased.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well, at least it will remain dry and chilly in the south with overnight frosts through next week, some cloud and rain in the north mid-week as Atlantic fronts return and winds turn westerly for a time here, before high pressure builds back in for all to end the week. The 500mb vortex gathering strength over Greenland toward the end of the run not such a nice sight though.

I was going to say the same thing about the ECM run....looking like turning back much flatter towards the end of the run, with the mild SW'erlies making a return. It's so far away I'd not pay too much attention for now anyway. Nothing too great to get excited about today really.

[Seasonality]

17 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I disagree. I think it's a shocker!

Probably the worst operational in a long time?

What is it that you want/expect? A horrendous situation like last December? Or terrible flooding?

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What is it that you want/expect? A horrendous situation like last December? Or terrible flooding?

Let me think...

It begins with 'S' and rhymes with 'glow'.

:-)

[knocker]

Very pleasant

And Sidney is smelling the coffee

 

[Polar Maritime]

Forgetting what people want/don't want, Likes/dislikes.. Lets please just discuss what the models are actually showing. There is far more to them than just cold/snow..

Edited November 25, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Let me think...

It begins with 'S' and rhymes with 'glow'.

:-)

Luckily there are a good three months left for it

[bluearmy]

Here's an idea

why not stop stressing over every run and ens suite?

why not assume that come mid dec, we will indeed see low anomolys to our south and east (the south ones come after those to our east back across us) with high ones to our west and north.  Watch the main players on the hemispheric view and see if you can see how we are going to end up in that place by that timescale. 

If some wintry looking charts crop up before then, assume that they will be fleeting or not verify at all. Look for the reasons they won't happen rather than the reason they will. take the glass half full view for the time being. you will feel better for it and if the white stuff does arrive mid dec onwards, you can enjoy it that bit more having avoided the daily stresses of the ups and downs.

[jvenge]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Very pleasant

And Sidney is smelling the coffee

 

I hope that doesn't verify. That would be stupidly cold for my country, considering the time of year.

Still, pinch of salt anything after day 6 still.

[Day 10]

39 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Good run from ECM this morning. Majority of Europe below average, lot of cold air around. Great for mountains as it would allow snowpack to build. Nice starting point I think 

 

31 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I disagree. I think it's a shocker!

Probably the worst operational in a long time?

How does this help anyone! No charts, good run, bad run. No wonder the forum is like a giant rollercoaster! Good job there are some REAL experts in here.