Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The GEFS have been just as bad as the Op and control. There will be no Northerly first week of December.

It's not the form horse I'll give you that, but you can't be sure of that. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Someone give the monthly update so I can sleep 

Its been posted on last page although there's no pressure patterns, I don't think its too bad but not as good as earlier runs.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its been posted on last page although there's no pressure patterns, I don't think its too bad but not as good as earlier runs.

Cheers for the heads up, could have been a long night. 

[swfc]

just a peronal thing but "for the love of god" can you stop posting metiociel charts"!!!anyway the outlook looks ok for late november.like i said earlier look to the norrh-  north east tom!!!

[cheshire snow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But the last few years we have known that any decent cold was more likely by way of a late or lateish SSW so ypu accept you've got minimal window from the start, the best chance is now this year and if we blow it.....

Fair enough,for me though if I had to worry over something,it would not be the weather,but I get your point

C.S

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

just a peronal thing but "for the love of god" can you stop posting metiociel charts"!!!anyway the outlook looks ok for late november.like i said earlier look to the norrh-  north east tom!!!

Why, they are the best graphics to get a hemispheric view???

[swfc]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Why, they are the best graphics to get a hemispheric view???

and there free to see!! if you cant be bothered to look then so be it.they dont have to fill this place up with them really!!.

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Why, they are the best graphics to get a hemispheric view???

I agree , best you get . Sorry SW , they are the best

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

and there free to see!! if you cant be bothered to look then so be it.they dont have to fill this place up with them really!!.

For those of us that cant read , pictures are the best way of understanding what goes on

[Winter-Chaser]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

I agree , best you get . Sorry SW , they are the best

The charts and explanations help newbies like myself learn how to read them. 

[MattH]

In-keeping with the winter forecast the latest EC monthly  is remarkably consistent over a signal for further high pressure dominated patterns across the U.K. and to the north. Especially by week 3 and week 4, which takes towards Christmas the signal for extensive northern blocking remains with a large positive pressure anom to the north and northwest of the U.K. covering most of Greenland and Iceland. In essence the longer term signal for northern blocking through Dec is maintained once again in this latest update. 

All to play for moving forward...

Regards. Matt. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

In-keeping with the winter forecast the latest EC monthly  is remarkably consistent over a signal for further high pressure dominated patterns across the U.K. and to the north. Especially by week 3 and week 4, which takes towards Christmas the signal for extensive northern blocking remains with a large positive pressure anom to the north and northwest of the U.K. covering most of Greenland and Iceland. In essence the longer term signal for northern blocking through Dec is maintained once again in this latest update. 

All to play for moving forward...

Regards. Matt. 

-Fabulous...news...

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

I'll sleep very well after reading that.

Thank you very much, Matt

Seems we really could see something special this year round. 

[ITSY]

12 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

In-keeping with the winter forecast the latest EC monthly  is remarkably consistent over a signal for further high pressure dominated patterns across the U.K. and to the north. Especially by week 3 and week 4, which takes towards Christmas the signal for extensive northern blocking remains with a large positive pressure anom to the north and northwest of the U.K. covering most of Greenland and Iceland. In essence the longer term signal for northern blocking through Dec is maintained once again in this latest update. 

All to play for moving forward...

Regards. Matt. 

I go on holiday on 27th December. The law of sod dictates that a week long crippling blizzard will insue from that date, until my return on Jan 3rd, when my plane will usher in an air of the tropics....

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I go on holiday on 27th December. The law of sod dictates that a week long crippling blizzard will insue from that date, until my return on Jan 3rd, when my plane will usher in an air of the tropics....

Haha, if I was on holiday and that was forecast, I'd unbook it, might sound sad but I couldn't miss it for anything , extreme snow lover here haha 

[A.J]

I really think model fatigue has set in for some!.....go and have a lie down, take a couple of anti-depressants or something, in all my years on NW I've never seen such a gaggle of over-stressed, over-hormonal, and knee-jerk reaction posts by some as I've seen tonight.....either that, or some folk have been on the sauce, or are just insane....either way, chill out, enjoy the ride, and what will be, will be as there are far more important things in life to worry about than not having enough blues strategically placed on a chart! 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Before I go tonight, worth noting that meto month ahead forecast in the middle part of Nov 2010 quite often said 'Turning colder with snow to the higher ground in the north"

look what happened;)

Just a nice teaser

[Cheshire Freeze]

We've been hearing that the long range ECM modelling has been suggesting heights to the N and NW of the UK for about 3 weeks now. It has translated to absolutely zilch of note up to this point and medium range modelling & ensemble products take us through the first week of December with seemingly zilch on the table (from a deep cold POV). I'm certainly reigning in my enthusiasm for now . 

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I really think model fatigue has set in for some!.....go and have a lie down, take a couple of anti-depressants or something, in all my years on NW I've never seen such a gaggle of over-stressed, over-hormonal, and knee-jerk reaction posts by some as I've seen tonight.....either that, or some folk have been on the sauce, or are just insane....either way, chill out, enjoy the ride, and what will be, will be as there are far more important things in life to worry about than not having enough blues strategically placed on a chart! 

Really! Tonight was positively happy compared to some I've known. And anyway we're not supposed to be totally sane or deliver emotionless posts, that's part of the appeal of the thread. If you think tonight was bad wait for the next easterly drama with -15 uppers shown hurtling towards the UK only to be scuppered by a misbehaving shortwave!

[fergieweather]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've been hearing that the long range ECM modelling has been suggesting heights to the N and NW of the UK for about 3 weeks now. It has translated to absolutely zilch of note up to this point and medium range modelling & ensemble products take us through the first week of December with seemingly zilch on the table (from a deep cold POV). I'm certainly reigning in my enthusiasm for now . 

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

[Snowman.]

Just now, fergieweather said:

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

There you go. Finish off today with those words.

Goodnight everyone sleep well as we have another day ahead of us tomorrow. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, fergieweather said:

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

Thank you for this little snippet Ian..

It's quite unusual for longer range products to pull out marked -ve temperature anomalies at that range is it not? Certainly a better sign than what has gone previously (where the longer range output had no clear direction of travel for expected temperatures)

[inghams85]

Its always been Week 2 in December that a proper colder spell has been forecast. It's still not in model view...why people have had end of November in there heads I honestly don't know!!

Edited November 25, 2016 by inghams85

[Seasonality]

24 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I really think model fatigue has set in for some!.....go and have a lie down, take a couple of anti-depressants or something, in all my years on NW I've never seen such a gaggle of over-stressed, over-hormonal, and knee-jerk reaction posts by some as I've seen tonight.....either that, or some folk have been on the sauce, or are just insane....either way, chill out, enjoy the ride, and what will be, will be as there are far more important things in life to worry about than not having enough blues strategically placed on a chart! 

Couldn't agree more. People need to get a grip. What happened to the stiff upper lip?

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

And so here we have it.... lets not get so hung up on every run all day every day.... the middle to end of December is when we are expecting the good times to start...anything before then is a bonus..... keep the faith folks keep the faith....