Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[feb1991blizzard]

STOP PRESS : Winter forecast is out

Its in the  top left hand corner : I'm just going to digest my dinner and in a bit digest that forecast.

Edited November 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

A pleasant start to December

Is that the 850 s? Because they wont be representative of the surface conditions on the ecm, id suggest a very cold start to Dec based on the ecm...

[beefy201]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STOP PRESS : Winter forecast is out

Where do we find this?

[sawan]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

A pleasant start to December

Knocker, that's a teaser. Please don't do that to coldies. All signals are hinting to deliver a colder than average December.

Edited November 24, 2016 by sawan

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, sawan said:

All signals are hinting to deliver a colder than average December.

Not all signals but certainly some signals

A repeat of last December is very unlikely, at the very least it looks seasonal with some cold, average and mild.

Edited November 24, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Where do we find this?

Sorry, its in the left hand top corner of this page, just click on it.

[snowbunting]

Woohoo. drier than average winter.. I can cope with that!@

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that the 850 s? Because they wont be representative of the surface conditions on the ecm, id suggest a very cold start to Dec based on the ecm...

Well you would suggest incorrectly unless you attempt to be more geographically specific. The ecm surface temps tend to warm up for the latter part of the run and temps certainly north of the Midlands are tending above average (perhaps they get rid of the nasty inversion). Just the southern Midlands and further south tending to stay average or below.

Edited November 24, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Well it doesn't look mild next week, in fact where frost and fog occures it will be a decidedly chilly week.

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Why not!!!

get the temps down and  the ground hard with frost's,and hope that the white stuff will follow

beats Atlantic dross

Just to add,people are expecting snow to fall every day of the winter month's,not going to happen,look at last winter and the one before,there wasn't much frost's around or snow,but we have had some of those elements already this month and it's not winter yet

Yeah, of course I was being glib and not a little facetious. 

ECM would be fine in the normal run of things but when you have the potential for a great cold shot then going around in circles isn't so appealing.

Edited November 24, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well it doesn't look mild next week, in fact where frost and fog occures it will be a decidedly chilly week.

I'm must admit at being somewhat puzzled of late by the frequent use, by those of a certain persuasion, of the term 'mild'. Nobody else has been using it.  I suspect something Freudian here to do with secret subconscious desires.

Edited November 24, 2016 by knocker

[mcweather]

Well yet another day that has proven that taking any single operational run  at face value is completely futile. This mornings GFS06Z was a pure cold and snow lovers dream but facts are that You really need the GFS to be show something like that from run to run for a few days at least before giving it any credence whatsoever.

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm must admit at being somewhat puzzled of late by the frequent use, by those of a certain persuasion, of the term 'mild'. Nobody else has been using it.  I suspect something Freudian here to do with secret subconscious desires.

Ha ha! I'll take advantage of this lull in proceedings to be a little frivolous. I suspect it is a perverse reverse psychology at play. 

[phil nw.]

Just looking through the GFS and it's enembles and the UK again just misses the cold on more than one occasion.It all gets filtered south east via the Scandi.troughing and we are left with the Atlantic high for company and some night frosts.

Overall there are are indeed some differences between the models upstream as soon as day 4 but even with these the overall upper pattern is in need of further amplification to remove the remnants of the Greenland vortex which is the obstacle to something better for cold seekers.

The day 7 mean shows the second near miss for cold as it glances the UK -the main path is towards Scandinavia/E.Europe because the upstream ridging is a fail.

The 06z GFS earlier showed what a little more ridging could do. Having said that even the 12z GFS mean chart is actually more promising than the the ECM op at the same time which models a Newfoundland trough and an even flatter Atlantic high.

All this shows how much uncertainty there is wrt to the amount of Atlantic ridging to come-in fact it's around day 7 that the spread in the ensembles widens considerably so there is some wriggle room yet beyond day 4/5 for adjustments to the N.American/Atlantic.pattern.

The one constant is the trend to move the bulk of the vortex towards Siberia through the next 10 days and this is ongoing across our north.This at least maintains the upstream Canadian +ve anomalies so further attempts at upstream ridging remain likely with an ongoing weak and split Atlantic jet stream.

[Matthew.]

Quite like the ECM! Some of the kindest winter conditions: no Atlantic storms, no cold winds, no cold rain. HP protecting us keeping things calm, dry and average maybe with a touch of fog at times

[stewfox]

On 23/11/2016 at 20:22, stewfox said:

Hard to say  , shorty summary of current thoughts..........

Patience is the key More runs needed

Short wave spoiler , will it be a spoiler ??.. so undecided

Up stream amplification undecided ,no clean route to cold

T168 looks shaky ,30th Nov is key date

Matts said seasonal outlook, Ian said trouble accurately forecasting shortwave troughs at T+12 who gives a **** re T168 

Focus on ensemble forecasting,GFS set for epic fail

SM confirms 12Z GEM better then 12Z GFS,UKMO northerly outbreak seems plausible

Models are 'struggling' on output,Just make sure your PC is working for the 'pub run', mind wasn't yesterday

 

Looking at the last 24hrs whats changed ?

More runs needed

Patience running thin today

I think we are still waiting for GFS 'epic fail'.

UKMO was bloody disappointing today, 12Z was a joke

ECM is on the follow me your b***** I'm top dog  and GFS is moving that way. 

More shortwave spoilers have been found, t*ss**ers*

Models are struggling at T120 so lets post some T240 charts 

Tamara, keeps cautious optimism

METO further outlook/forecasts now suck because they look poor

UKMO sucks and has got a real good kicking today from members for not showing what we want. Of course its the worse model ever.

The GFS has found  another shortwave to spoil the outlook. .......Why GFS why ! , give us a break stop finding shortwaves  in the wrong place

ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs.

Pub run we want the ECM to 'flip over'

---------

So ECM won the day for consistency, UKMO has been put in the hospital and short waves have been really pesky today.

For cold lovers its 3/10 day hence why only 20 pages posted

On  a positive its still Autumn lots to play for

Edited November 24, 2016 by stewfox

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Quite like the ECM! Some of the kindest winter conditions: no Atlantic storms, no cold winds, no cold rain. HP protecting us keeping things calm, dry and average maybe with a touch of fog at times

You forgot the frost, there would be frosty nights under high pressure depending on the variable cloud-cover of course but a crisp, bright largely settled spell is just what the doctor ordered following all the recent heavy rain and severe gales..it's a tranquil outlook.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You forgot the frost, there would be frosty nights under high pressure depending on the variable cloud-cover of course but a crisp, bright largely settled spell is just what the doctor ordered following all the recent heavy rain and severe gales..it's a tranquil outlook.

Hopefully something like this Frosty, this was 4 day cold spell, frost never lifted, 4 frosty nights on the trot and by Tuesday 17th it was unbelievably thick, can be just as good as snow, but Atlantic rolled in later on Tues 17th, but very wintry 4 days

Edited November 24, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hopefully something like this Frosty, this was 4 day cold spell, frost never lifted, 4 frosty nights on the trot and by Tuesday 17th it was unbelievably thick, can be just as good as snow, but Atlantic rolled in later on Tues 17th, but very wintry 4 days

Yes that would be nice, high pressure holding atlantic systems at bay. I love frosty weather as you would expect.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes that would be nice, high pressure holding atlantic systems at bay. I love frosty weather as you would expect.

A few frosty nights would be a major improvement on the last two winters

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes that would be nice, high pressure holding atlantic systems at bay. I love frosty weather as you would expect.

Yes Frosty, it was very Frosty 

[A.J]

17 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Looking at the last 24hrs whats changed ?

More runs needed

Patience running thin today

I think we are still waiting for GFS 'epic fail'.

UKMO was bloody disappointing today

ECM is on the follow me your b***** I'm top dog  and GFS is moving that way. 

More shortwave spoilers have been found, t*ss**ers*

Models are struggling at T120 so lets post some T240 charts 

Tamara, keeps cautious optimism

METO further outlook/forecasts now suck because they looks poor

UKMO sucks and has got a real good kicking today from members

The GFS has found  another shortwave to spoil the outlook. .......Why GFS why , give us a break

ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs.

---------

So ECM won the day for consistency, UKMO has been put in the hospital and short waves have been really pesky today.

For cold lovers its 3/10 day hence why only 20 pages posted

On  a positive its still Autumn lots to play for

lol....quality post..........my NW model thread bingo card has been filled several times over having read and digested today's pages of posts........so to sum up, after next week no one, and no model has got an absolute clue what will happen....no surprises there, so let's see what fairy tales the 18z GFS comes up with shortly....should be interesting 

[Scandinavian High.]

Huge  uncertainty start December  which way will it go mild vs cold 

[blizzard81]

Deary me! I don't think I have ever seen such a huge spread on the T2 temp ecm extended ensembles for debilt.

Edited November 24, 2016 by blizzard81

[nick sussex]

31 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Looking at the last 24hrs whats changed ?

More runs needed

Patience running thin today

I think we are still waiting for GFS 'epic fail'.

UKMO was bloody disappointing today, 12Z was a joke

ECM is on the follow me your b***** I'm top dog  and GFS is moving that way. 

More shortwave spoilers have been found, t*ss**ers*

Models are struggling at T120 so lets post some T240 charts 

Tamara, keeps cautious optimism

METO further outlook/forecasts now suck because they look poor

UKMO sucks and has got a real good kicking today from members for not showing what we want. Of course its the worse model ever.

The GFS has found  another shortwave to spoil the outlook. .......Why GFS why ! , give us a break stop finding shortwaves  in the wrong place

ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs.

Pub run we want the ECM to 'flip over'

---------

So ECM won the day for consistency, UKMO has been put in the hospital and short waves have been really pesky today.

For cold lovers its 3/10 day hence why only 20 pages posted

On  a positive its still Autumn lots to play for

Great post, very funny. I hope you'll be doing this nightly throughout the winter.