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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Well JMA is moving away from ECM toward GFS (though only about 2/3 the way there) so this is pretty finely balanced.

JN144-21.GIF?24-12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM not horrendous at 168, but not brilliant either. 

IMG_3773.PNG

kind of 2 steps backwards one step forward 

It's trying @nick sussex 

IMG_3775.PNG

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
37 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm not anything like as knowledgeable as many here, but I have been following these discussions for a few years, in addition to which, I have a science background so am perhaps used to making a general assessment of tranches of data.  To me, the xdivergence seems to appear around December 1st, and iss pronounced by the 34d.  Based on what I was once told by someone here (I can't recall who it was - might have been John Holmes), FI is the point at which the models diverge markedly, which would suggest it's currently around the 2nd-3rd.

2
 
 
 
 
 

Here is a netweather guide on this very subject, so your answer can be found in there. Put simply; it is where the divergence begins between the individual member runs (29th/30th I'd suggest in your example), which determines where FI begins and where it's at which timeframe its's greatest deviation is shown is where folks should order the truckload of salt. In my case, I hope the salt is most definitely necessary this winter, and from the attached graph central Europe looks like needing that truck, and a bit sharpish! :cold:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA 192, incoming :cold:

JN192-21.GIF?24-12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well JMA is moving away from ECM toward GFS (though only about 2/3 the way there) so this is pretty finely balanced.

JN144-21.GIF?24-12

Its moved all the way!!!   -   Its a stonker by 192!.

JN192-21_hhd1.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its moved all the way!!!   -   Its a stonker by 192!.

JN192-21_hhd1.GIF

Shame it's the JMA and not ECM, that has sooo much potential 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Anyone know what time the EC46 is out ?

Don't know exactly but if we get any info posted on it, its usually round 10pm.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its moved all the way!!!   -   Its a stonker by 192!.

JN192-21_hhd1.GIF

Which only highlights just how unpredictable the current NH synoptics actually are?:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
  • Weather Preferences: Snow upon snow upon SNOW!!!
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3

Hi all, very rarely post on here but follow the rollercoaster every year in search of a uk snow fix.

The Models as they are at the mo reminded me of a time a few years back (possibly 2009/2010) when all other models were saying no chance and the GFS being the only model to predict correctly at distance.  Think it was literally a couple of days if not one day before that the other models switched and jumped on board.

Not saying this is what is happening now, and like I said, it was some time back so I could be remembering it all wrong. Would be interesting if anyone else remembers this happening re our current situation!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm not anything like as knowledgeable as many here, but I have been following these discussions for a few years, in addition to which, I have a science background so am perhaps used to making a general assessment of tranches of data.  To me, the xdivergence seems to appear around December 1st, and iss pronounced by the 34d.  Based on what I was once told by someone here (I can't recall who it was - might have been John Holmes), FI is the point at which the models diverge markedly, which would suggest it's currently around the 2nd-3rd.

I think you're bang on about 2-3 December. Using Central Europe again as an example here are the 12z ensembles for Warsaw. Real spread come 2-3 December. But plenty of members in the snow row! :)

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know exactly but if we get any info posted on it, its usually round 10pm.

Thank you, It's usually the great IF who posts, If I'm correct?

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...

As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Thank you, It's usually the great IF who posts, If I'm correct?

Yes, if he's not around, we might still get the mean described  by BA or Knocker.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

This is much better from the ECM, we at least have something to work with from here. Its quite a big step forward from this mornings mush at 216. Nice bit of trough disruption, could do with it backing north west a few hundred miles

 

IMG_3776.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well at T216hrs we have the chance of a Scandi high looking at the upstream pattern. Also the shortwave forming at the base of the troughing, if that goes towards Iberia then game on.

The ECM would look even better without you know what to the north at T192hrs, it begins with an S!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Big difference between yesterday's +216 (bottom) and today's +192 (top) and a big improvement. That trough to the west of us digging very far south. Still disagreements earlier on between GFS and ECM regarding Greenland and the GFS northerly but at least ECM is looking much better than before, even if the GFS northerly next week does turn out to be incorrect.

High pressure in charge with definite potential for heights to then continue building further north and east of the UK as we go further on...

IMG_3181.GIF

IMG_3182.GIF

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA tonight V last night

JN192-21.GIFJN216-21.GIF

It is especially interesting because it shows the output is volatile both ways and not just simply trending toward an ECM type solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Ecm not bad at all at 216 hrs,get that WAA pumped up into Iceland and beyond,we could end up with a cut off hp

ECH1-216.GIF.png

no sign of the Atlantic barreling in on this run so a step in the right direction,240 hrs cold and frosty but FL of cause.

ECH1-240.GIF.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM 168hrs to get back to square one. No thanks

ECH1-72.GIF?24-0ECH1-240.GIF?24-0

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, ribster said:

How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...

As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...

Agree 100%, Ribster. Sometimes I even begin to wonder if a few folks think the models actually make the weather!:D

Edited by Ed Stone
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