Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[nick sussex]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Those saying its game over..it isn't..The game doesn't even begin until Dec 1st..this was followed by a stonking 6z and plenty of Ensemble support so let's just keep calm, it's all to play for and the models dont look anything like as mild as last year..much more seasonal level playing field!

Stop spinning you should have been a politician! lol The UKMO is utter crxp, the GEM slightly less crxp, the GFS passable but still finds the shortwave from hell to spoil things. The only crumb of comfort is that NCEP aren't impressed with the outputs and theres a lot of uncertainty over in the USA. But we need the ECM to find a solution that at least has some positives, I don't care if it goes in a different direction as long as it has the prospect for something interesting!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Stop spinning you should have been a politician! lol The UKMO is utter crxp, the GEM slightly less crxp, the GFS passable but still finds the shortwave from hell to spoil things. The only crumb of comfort is that NCEP aren't impressed with the outputs and theres a lot of uncertainty over in the USA. But we need the ECM to find a solution that at least has some positives, I don't care if it goes in a different direction as long as it has the prospect for something interesting!

 

I do think we all need to be realistic now and accept that our next opportunity is going to be towards mid December (talking about proper cold by where if something falls from the sky anywhere in UK it has a chance of being snow), I said this yesterday but the EC46 update tonight is going to be the most important run of the winter.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 as long as it has the prospect for something interesting!

 

I've seen plenty of interesting output so far today Nick, the gfs 0z / 6z & 12z, the GEFS 00z / 6z, the Gem 00z, The ukmo 00z and we still have plenty more opportunities left this evening and tonight

[daz_4]

Looking at ensembles for central Europe, it sure is a huge mess

[nick sussex]

You can see upstream the differences between the GFS and UKMO at just T120hrs, note how much more progressive the UKMO is and see the impact this has on developing those positive heights towards Greenland. The GFS is more amplified with more digging south of the troughing this helps to develop WAA ahead of it towards Greenland.

GFS                                                                     UKMO

 

 

[Snowy L]

The difference between the GFS 06z and the 12z are far smaller than the differences between the GFS and ECM. The 12z continues to have a strong Greenland High building, the only difference from this morning's run is a tiny shortwave developing out of nowhere and ruining everything. Predicting a shortwave from 1 week out is impossible, so it's still game on and wait and see with the GFS. The ECM doesn't even attempt Northern Blocking, not on our side of the globe anwway, with high pressure over central/western Canada. What I'm looking for with the 12z ECM is if it switches to building sibstantial high pressure over Greenland at days 5-8. That would be a shift to the GFS regardless of what's going on with the shortwave mess in the Atlantic. Forget shortwave drama for now.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

The difference between the GFS 06z and the 12z are far smaller than the differences between the GFS and ECM. The 12z continues to have a strong Greenland High building, the only difference from this morning's run is a tiny shortwave developing out of nowhere and ruining everything. Predicting a shortwave from 1 week out is impossible, so it's still game on and wait and see with the GFS. The ECM doesn't even attempt Northern Blocking, not on our side of the globe anwway, with high pressure over central/western Canada. What I'm looking for with the 12z ECM is if it switches to building sibstantial high pressure over Greenland at days 5-8. That would be a shift to the GFS regardless of what's going on with the shortwave mess in the Atlantic. Forget shortwave drama for now.

But you said it though, 'The ECM doesn't even attempt Northern blocking' so its not just the shortwave, the ECM would have to have an almighty climb down,

[Summer Sun]

Some very mild ensembles on this afternoon's GFS equally some still get down to just below -5

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But you said it though, 'The ECM doesn't even attempt Northern blocking' so its not just the shortwave, the ECM would have to have an almighty climb down,

It was more of a don't be too upset at the 12z GFS post, because the GH is still there.

[Snowy L]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Stop spinning you should have been a politician! lol The UKMO is utter crxp, the GEM slightly less crxp, the GFS passable but still finds the shortwave from hell to spoil things. The only crumb of comfort is that NCEP aren't impressed with the outputs and theres a lot of uncertainty over in the USA. But we need the ECM to find a solution that at least has some positives, I don't care if it goes in a different direction as long as it has the prospect for something interesting!

 

I think it's unlikely we'll get a cold spell, and I'm not just saying this because it's not showing what I want to see, but why is GEM being involved in the conversation this winter. GEM is an awful model. Last year it was ARPEGE, a couple of years ago it was BOM. I'd rather stick to the main 3.

[gottolovethisweather]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You can see upstream the differences between the GFS and UKMO at just T120hrs, note how much more progressive the UKMO is and see the impact this has on developing those positive heights towards Greenland. The GFS is more amplified with more digging south of the troughing this helps to develop WAA ahead of it towards Greenland.

GFS                                                                     UKMO

 

 

 

 

Which is precisely why the overanalysis by a few members, perhaps those less-experienced model watchers is rather daft, all IMHO. When looking at charts in isolation, it is important to understand precisely where FI begins (i.e. D5 in Nick's doodle above), it can also be found on any GEFS or equivalent ensembles chart as well. Again, without doing so, this makes stressful responses like (just like last year, end of winter, bad chart, good chart, epic chart or whatever right into the depths of FI equally silly. This time people, chill, let the ECM op run past D5 or whatever and then comment. Look for Nick's shortwave, look at NH profile, is it similar to yesterday's ECM 12z or other's 12zs. Please don't clog up the pages with one-liners as folk will learn nothing from them. Where possible, post a chart especially when making comparisons. Over and out. Eyes on the prize, my friends.

Edited November 24, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Gael_Force]

34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In a nutshell a shortwave calamity!

The GFS even though better than the UKMO still manages to find another shortwave to spoil the outlook. The UKMO is now grim looking from a cold perspective and the GEM has swung to a completely different scenario from its 00hrs which supports my view that its a useless model.

The GFS could be better if that shortwave didn't deepen rapidly but just ran se , it at least has some scope the UKMO I'm afraid is utter crud.

Upstream in the USA the models disagree with the amplitude of that central USA troughing and this impacts any pressure rises towards Greenland.

Huge uncertainty, huge spread .... runs at either extreme of the ensemble spread. Doesn't, at this stage, mean the model is useless: just more difficult than usual for working out the complicated pattern in the upper levels.

[Singularity]

UKMO is very progressive right across all of the the U.S., Atlantic and Eurasian sectors. Poor continuity from the 00z.

GFS only faring slightly better.

Given the lack of solid guiding forces until if/when we get things aligned for mid-Dec, this model chaos can only continue for the time being - best not to worry much about what we end up with next week unless of course you're doing forecasts (...yep, that's me!).

[karlos1983]

32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I do think we all need to be realistic now and accept that our next opportunity is going to be towards mid December (talking about proper cold by where if something falls from the sky anywhere in UK it has a chance of being snow), I said this yesterday but the EC46 update tonight is going to be the most important run of the winter.

Couldn't agree more. I'm nervous!

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

UKMO is very progressive right across all of the the U.S., Atlantic and Eurasian sectors. Poor continuity from the 00z.

GFS only faring slightly better.

Given the lack of solid guiding forces until if/when we get things aligned for mid-Dec, this model chaos can only continue for the time being - best not to worry much about what we end up with next week unless of course you're doing forecasts (...yep, that's me!).

One word old boy, "caveats" 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Mucka

[Malcolm Edwards]

4 hours ago, fat chad said:

Hello Malcolm and welcome to the forum. My basic grasp of how ex hurricanes effect the weather in the Atlantic is that they pump up warm air pole wards (WAA). It's best for cold lovers, the WAA going up towards Greenland. Other members who are far far more knowledgeable than myself and they will correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that ex hurricanes and tropical storms hitch a ride on the jet stream and the storm direction and eventual landfall depends on where the jet stream is. Not actually effecting the jet stream itself. Well that's my take on thing's... Be nice to me gang if I am wrong...

Thank you for this information.Im hoping for some snow this winter something similar to jan 87 would be nice.....

 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

It was more of a don't be too upset at the 12z GFS post, because the GH is still there.

Please show me this Greenland High! 

All we see is a slither of +ve heights to the west of Greenland absolutely useless. 

Just to remind you where Greenland is   Greenland highs these days seem to be a thing of the past they've been modelled several times all very fickle in the model world, personally a good Scand high is my preference.  

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Please show me this Greenland High! 

All we see is a slither of +ve heights to the west of Greenland absolutely useless. 

Just to remind you where Greenland is   Greenland highs these days seem to be a thing of the past they've been modelled several times all very fickle in the model world, personally a good Scand high is my preference.  

Why did you put a cross over a 1055mb Greenland High? If you go through the run the high stays there throughout the run too.

Edited November 24, 2016 by Snowy L

[nick sussex]

Well no agreement at T144hrs between the big 3, the ECM is less traumatic than the UKMO. The UKMO is most progressive over the USA and blows up that low near Greenland.

[Weathizard]

ECM looks to be sticking to its guns, colours firmly nailed on the mast! 

 

The difference at 144 is vast in the key areas

[Ali1977]

I think we can be confident GFS has been wrong!! ECM not playing ball, as with the other models now.

[Seasonality]

ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs.

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T168hrs has some scope if that troughing to the west amplifies, this could draw the high n/ne but will it?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

37 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Looking at ensembles for central Europe, it sure is a huge mess

I'm not anything like as knowledgeable as many here, but I have been following these discussions for a few years, in addition to which, I have a science background so am perhaps used to making a general assessment of tranches of data.  To me, the xdivergence seems to appear around December 1st, and iss pronounced by the 34d.  Based on what I was once told by someone here (I can't recall who it was - might have been John Holmes), FI is the point at which the models diverge markedly, which would suggest it's currently around the 2nd-3rd.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Anyone know what time the EC46 is out ?