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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The GFS continuing to do its best but the way it manages to retrogress the high is akin to Moses parting the Red Sea.

Its so complicated and fraught with danger because of the inability of the models to accurately model those shortwaves in the Atlantic.

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted (edited)

h500slp.png

It's tight, but think it's a no-goer here if you're looking for anything beyond a transient northerly.  Hoping I'm wrong, but looks like energy is going to cut off the WAA heading into Greeny.  Fine margins at +192 though, so not too fussed! 

Edit:

+207 below...GFS still hasn't made up its mind to the west...Great longwave pattern, still reckon we will miss out on this one.

h500slp.png

 

aaaaaaand looking at the NH, looks almost perfect!  Seems almost improbable the cold will miss us, yet it seems set on doing everything it can to miss us :rofl:

 npsh500.png

Edited by weatherguy
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

And here she comes,chunk of PV to our NE

gfsnh-0-204.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

And here she comes,chunk of PV to our NE

gfsnh-0-204.png

I'm starting to think this is going to happen, but as to the length of it I don't know, possible a decent cold spelll that could potentially lead to something very cold . 

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted
12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Also why BBC weather feel it was right to even mention the AO at this range when there is no snowy set ups along the way, they just basically chucked themselves in the media spotlight which will no doubt get picked up by the media and taken out of context. They could be right but I would'nt bet on it,

 

Because whilst we remain in contract with UKMO, our obligation remains to reflect the very latest thoughts and briefing we have from Exeter (ie UKMO Seasonal Team/Medium Range desk)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS continuing to do its best but the way it manages to retrogress the high is akin to Moses parting the Red Sea.

Its so complicated and fraught with danger because of the inability of the models to accurately model those shortwaves in the Atlantic.

This looks nice, Arctic incoming, it's all about potential and I'm seeing plenty of it.

h850t850eu.png

prectypeuktopo.png

ukmintemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-1-222.png?18

too far west i'm afraid.

Yes,but the trend is there to dig a trough in our vicinity:D

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-1-222.png?18

too far west i'm afraid.

Yes and with no sign of any decent blocking to the nw its difficult to get the real cold south. I'm hoping we might see a proper Greenland high before Haleys comet next comes round! Its like pulling teeth to raise heights to the nw.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-1-222.png?18

too far west i'm afraid.

But dont we always normally see these kind of Northerlies correct east closer to the time?? lost count of the amount of times we have direct hits modeled only for them to end up giving Athens blizzards??

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Once again the gfs' seems a smother evolution in the point of its evolution on waa' and sharpening.

Its not mirror image of its 6z sister but it once again toys with a similar evolution. ...

Im confident the gfs is onto something at the turn of the new month. 

 

gfsnh-0-222.png

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted

h500slp.png

What a peculiar set up.  Hopefully heights remain low in Europe at least, seems like groundhog day rinse and repeat here - just watch that slider low come east, heights will start to build again behind it I'd imagine...ad nauseum. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes and with no sign of any decent blocking to the nw its difficult to get the real cold south. I'm hoping we might see a proper Greenland high before Haleys comet next comes round! Its like pulling teeth to raise heights to the nw.

Its like pulling teeth to get height rises anywhere to the North of the UK the last few years.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The north of the uk becomes wintry on the 18z, scotland goes into the freezer!

ukmaxtemp.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Because whilst we remain in contract with UKMO, our obligation remains to reflect the very latest thoughts and briefing we have from Exeter (ie UKMO Seasonal Team/Medium Range desk)

Does this mean there is no longer a great deal of uncertainty in the 10-15 day period? I'm surprised your team mentioned snow as i would have thought they would remain as vague as possible? Can you share any more detail from the Seasonal / medium range teams thoughts please? As ever your input is so valuable to us in here ! 

IMG_5320.JPG

Edited by Tim Bland
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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Im pretty sure the BBC weather wouldnt have chucked themselves into the media spotlight without any advice from the met office first...it pretty much went along with what Ian F posted earlier...

How many times has the BBC longer range forecasts have proven to be incorrect? Quite alot in fairness, too me its too early to speculate and in my eyes, the models are indicating we may head into a more positive AO as we head into the first few days into December, the ECM 12Z certainly shows this with low heights across the Arctic and the PV is definately getting more organised up there now. I rather if the beeb just waited for the cold to arrive and then explain how the AO is all linked to it, not potentially weeks beforehand.

18Z further enforces the trend we are unlikely going too see much WAA heading up the Western side of Greenland and the Atlantic comes in a bit stronger on this run, its only by another half hearted ridge we get some cold heading southwards but then as in normal GFS fashion it gets messy.

Whilst there does not seem much trend for anything significantly mild, it does look like the settled spell will end a bit quicker than first thought and Atlantic fronts start coming in from Tuesday onwards. The Northerly signal is getting weaker all the while and seems less likely to happen.

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its like pulling teeth to get height rises anywhere to the North of the UK the last few years.

Unless it's summer, we bathe in northern blocking then.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I'm hoping we start getting a few Blocks crop up in the ENS , the NH is looking like a prime target for a block if you ask me - just a waiting game.

If the pros super computers say it's looking possible i'm with them.

They can only interpret what their computers are saying, adding some professional knowledge obviously so whether it happens or not it's the best insight into possibilities this forum is going to get. And it's great to have that insight from certain members.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The north of the uk becomes wintry on the 18z, scotland goes into the freezer!

And the north gets some snow.

Rather than being disappointed that the cold didn't dig south, we should be encouraged that there are potential arctic shots lining up in the mid range! Ok it then goes mushy but that's 300+ hours away.

ukmaxtemp.png

prectypeuktopo.png

hgt500-1000.png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted

Many say look at the trends and one trend is that charts like this are continually showing a snowy outbreak around 4th and 5th of December.

prectypeuktopo.png.4fe342d9db9d08b05a0849b8555ca012.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

These 18z charts reminds me of December 2015, luckily it's at T+384 hours:D

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Does this mean there is no longer a great deal of uncertainty in the 10-15 day period? I'm surprised your team mentioned snow as i would have thought they would remain as vague as possible? Can you share any more detail from the Seasonal / medium range teams thoughts please? As ever your input is so valuable to us in here ! 

IMG_5320.JPG

Well the BBC must be talking gfs ops  ,ecm  ops looks dull and frankly boring!:D

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
46 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well this looks pretty good to me, decent Greeny high forming and some cold Northerlies lining up to come in. Maybe not an all out snow blitz but I imagine some pretty harsh frosts in those slack winds. With coastal wintery showers up North.

IMG_3617.PNG

Standard December fare really. Colder, more chance of wintry mix in North; less cold in South. 

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