Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the Atlantic didn't win out, this is a great run and not hugely FI - surely wrong going off the latest METO info!! 

WHERE ON EARTH did this run come from, potentially the best run this year and only at 192!! Block into Greeny looks firm, lets see where it goes and what the ENS have to say!! Hopes are not high.

It shouldn't be a surprise, last night's 18z was similarly very good.

[Yarmy]

Another Northerly incoming.

The stubborn high over the UK gets cleared away quicker on this run. Cold outlier, I'd imagine, but hope springs.

 

[Weathizard]

All this GFS 6z shows is to be quite frank the models have less idea than us right now, it's only 7-8 days away and the change at 180 hours out is pretty staggering.

Small changes nearer term can cause big implications further down the line and this is what we see in these knife edge energy splitting/riding/going under situations.

 

Treat EVERY run right now with a pinch of salt, or a BAG of salt

Edited November 23, 2016 by Weathizard

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It shouldn't be a surprise, last night's 18z was similarly very good.

-8c uppers hitting the South coast by late next week, not sure we've had a run this good yet.  It wouldn't be too much of a surprise if I hadn't heard reports saying a bit of Atlantic influence due before potentially another blocked spell.  Tricky set up though so guess anything is possible a week or so out.

[Seasonality]

Just now, Weathizard said:

All this GFS 6z shows is to be quite frank the models have less idea than us right now, it's only 7-8 days away and the change at 180 hours out is pretty staggering.

Small changes nearer term can cause big implications further down the line and this is what we see in these knife edge energy splitting/riding/going under situations.

Yes, with such disagreement between models and between runs, nothing is set in stone.

[Nick F]

Also ... worth taking note when the GFS consistently hints at northerlies, as historically I've found the model has been good at picking them up in later medium range compared to other models. It tends to have a good grip on the far north Atlantic sector and N America.

[feb1991blizzard]

I cant understand how the model's can be so wrong at such a short timeframe, the setup for that was in the reliable and its not just a normal Northerly, that's a powerhouse Northerly.

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I think the 6Z has found the 18z Pub Run's stash of booze. I'd snap up what it's offering any day though, by t192 especially

 

Hate to say it but (1) run wont do it for me ,we would need the 12z from ecm/gfs to follow a similar line.

 

We  have see this teaser a few times in the last week only to come to nothing, having said that its a lovely run!

Edited November 23, 2016 by snowice

[joggs]

I find it hard to be excited about this run given the meto update.

Don't want to wear myself out so gonna have a day or so off.Not even December yet lol.

Edited November 23, 2016 by joggs

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Hate to say it but (1) run wont do it for me ,we would need the 12z from ecm/gfs to follow a similar line.

 

We  have see this teaser a few times in the last week only to come to nothing having said that its a lovely run!

Completely agree, never has the teaser been just a week away though.  Ens will be interesting but I strongly think the Op will be an outlier against them.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Hate to say it but (1) run wont do it for me ,we would need the 12z from ecm/gfs to follow a similar line.

 

We  have see this teaser a few times in the last week only to come to nothing having said that its a lovely run!

Has to be said. Need to temper the excitement to avoid disappointment. If some consistency emerges then maybe the champagne can be put on ice but there is a long way to go yet.

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Hate to say it but (1) run wont do it for me ,we would need the 12z from ecm/gfs to follow a similar line.

 

We  have see this teaser a few times in the last week only to come to nothing having said that its a lovely run!

I fully agree, fantastic to look at but nothing more than that at this stage. Not looking at a brief toppler either by the looks of it...

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye sounds reflective of yesterdays meto update, sounds like Atlantic in the box seat come early Dec  not what we wanted to see, hopefully it will be shortlived, the trouble is once zonality sets in, it can last a long time.Yes it might be a cooler zonality but it will be little use i would guess unless your high up, up north...

But it's not really zonality in sense of 2015: the majority signals for early Dec look cyclonic, yes (deeply so in various members), but the pattern in NOT very progressive and very distinct from this time last year. Glosea continues to resurrect blocked set-ups mid-Dec on for rest of month, with generally below average temperatures; it favours high pressure to NE whereas the (broadly not dissimilar) ECMWF shows similar evolution albeit HP weakly signalled to NW. The general look of things is very adequately summarised thus by UKMO this morning: "The main theme (from this evolution) is that December could well be very different from last year, with -ve anomalies for both ppn and temperature for much of the country".

Edited November 23, 2016 by fergieweather

[swfc]

The gulf between ecm at 240 hrs and gfs is staggering.Id love to here ians comments on how this sits given the technology ete!!!!

 

[geordiekev]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Completely agree, never has the teaser been just a week away though.  Ens will be interesting but I strongly think the Op will be an outlier against them.

To be fair I think the gfs has been quite consistent in showing a marked change to something cooler at the turn of the month, 1st to 3rd December. The fact it's still running with this theme is encouraging, even if there's inter run flipping which is expected at the changes of the season. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

But it's not really zonality in sense of 2015: the majority signals for early Dec look cyclonic, yes (deeply so in various members), but the pattern in NOT very progressive and very distinct from this time last year. Glosea continues to resurrect blocked set-ups mid-Dec on for rest of month, with generally below average temperatures; it favours high pressure to NE whereas the (broadly not dissimilar) ECMWF shows similar evolution albeit HP weakly signalled to NW. The general look of things is very adequately summarised thus by UKMO this morning: "The main theme (from this evolution) is that December could well be very different from last year, with -ve anomalies for both ppn and temperature for much of the country".

Still sounds good thanks Ian, does this latest GFS look a little out of place amongst the computer models you use.  It looks like a cracking Northerly flow, not at all Zonal.

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I fully agree, fantastic to look at but nothing more than that at this stage. Not looking at a brief toppler either by the looks of it...

So week 1 we are under a seemingly immovable high, and week 2 we are under a lobe of the polar vortex. Could happen. 

[Weathizard]

The big differences between the rather drab 0z and the stonker of a 6z are coming out of the eastern seaboard, we get a high pressure cell forming much bigger and stronger as the low pressure gets battered by high pressure either side.

 

As its one GFS run I'm taking this with a spoonful of salt mind you, this solution is will be at the extreme cold end regardless but it shows what can happen should we get sufficient amplification.

 

As a side note: regardless of METO updates - with all due respect they are a professional outfit and have far more forecasting power than we do but they are still forecasting just the same as all of us. I'm not discrediting them just don't get too downbeat about METO updates.

[bluearmy]

Just looking at the mean ecm and spreads and it says the gfs op days 8 thru 10 just isn't feasible to that degree. Maybe a brief northerly/norwester affecting the n of the country but if anything, the spread indicactes rising temps later on. London graph due in ten mins which may illustrate this better

Edited November 23, 2016 by bluearmy

[legritter]

20 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm, first signs of a change in the meto mrf, now sugesting the high getting pushed east allowing milder wet and windy weather in from the Atlantic  - they cover all bases by suggesting possible snowfall in the extended, all the same after viewing the NWP this morning i had a hunch it was a matter of time before we started seeing the text mentioning Atlantic lows..

Sorry  mods but posting this as i cant seem to get rid of it , MODEL FATIGUE ,CLICKED ON IT BY ACCIDENT CHEERS .

[Seasonality]

Just for fun. A snowy Europe! 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

The gulf between ecm at 240 hrs and gfs is staggering.Id love to here ians comments on how this sits given the technology ete!!!!

 

Don't want to put words in his mouth but he will probably tell you that the GFS is crap!!!

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the mean ecm and spreads and it says the gfs op days 8 thru 10 just isn't feasible to that degree. Maybe a brief northerly/norwester affecting the n of the country but if anything, the spread indicactes rising temps later on. London graph due in ten mins which may illustrate this better

Yes, totally agree, I just cant see practically 2 (3 if you presume MOGREPS is in the same ballpark) whole suites flip that close to an event.

1 op, perhaps 2 op's, but not masses of ensembles.

Edited November 23, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Singularity]

Well you have to love how GFS has defiantly (with respect to ECM) increased the ridge build ahead of the Newfoundland low and produced a fairly clean northerly blast by 8-9 days range.

It'll be interesting to see if the Met Office tweak their 6-15 day outlook to add some suggestion that any milder conditions are both far from certain and potentially very brief (and in any case the use of the word 'dominate' yesterday does not seem like the best choice of wording given all the uncertainty at hand).

[Frosty.]

Great charts from the Gfs 6z..warms the cockles of a coldies heart!

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[weirpig]

Well that was fun!  A humdinger of a Northerly  dive barrel Lows  cold air galore  and the run ends with a easterly what could go wrong?    easily the run of the season   hopefully it sits at the mild end of the ensembles.

Edited November 23, 2016 by weirpig