Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Seasonality]

-16   into Central Europe at  t192 and t216. Can't fault the cold pool building.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Seasonality

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

-16   into Central Europe at  t192 and t216. Can't fault the cold pool building.

It will remain a long way away though with the synoptics been modelled.

[terrier]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks more in line with last two para ops which will be the op in twelve hours! (The last para op was pretty frigid due to slack continental flow )

 

looking at the means/anomolys on the para and op ec 46 says to me that any 'snowy' potential is pushed back till mid dec and beyond. prior to that looks quite anticyclonic so we could well be quite surface cold at times. 

Well that sounds fine to me. Surface cold to bring ground temp down. Then snow mid Dec onwards. Think that quiet a good update to be honest. Hopefully glosea model is seeing something similar. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will remain a long way away though with the synoptics been modelled.

Aye, as it stands, hopefully plenty of fog and frost in the meantime ...doesnt look like the northern arm of the jet is going to allow for retrogression , dont want to see a sinking high into E urope though.

[knocker]

The ecm det. is similar to the GFS up to T168 when the Atlantic trough deconstructs but from there it has more upstream forcing from the Atlantic seaboard resulting in more Azores ridging over Scotland and the Iberian low over Gibraltar It does for a time follow the route it took yesterday evening phasing in the Iberian Low with the cold trough to the east, and it does indeed form a cut off upper low to the SE, but the renewed upstream forcing ensures that it does the decent thing and relegates the cold air to Turkey.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Aye, as it stands, hopefully plenty of fog and frost in the meantime ...doesnt look like the northern arm of the jet is going to allow for retrogression , dont want to see a sinking high into E urope though.

That's my fear. advertised on GEFS lately.

[Ali1977]

Well after the good charts last night I hoped for similar this morning but as usual another swing in the models. Slack cold and frost sounds good to me though, lets get the Synoptics correct before the real cold heads in. Ian's update sounds very promoiding still, a really cold Xmas break would be great! A day of swings in models on the way I feel. 

[IDO]

Looking into the D8+ range and the GEFS have taken a while but have moved a big step towards some consensus, two main clusters now down to one, that is a return to the slow mobility within the compass of a Russian and Azores HP combo. In other words a continuation of the theme we have had for a while. Despite the background signals for amplification the models are just not picking that signal up and running with it consistently. Whether this is just poor models or that those signals are muted time will tell. 

Looking at the Dec 8 chart and we are where we were weeks ago when we were expectant of change: 

Obviously a D16 chart, so pretty useless but its synoptics are the main thing here. 

Dr Cohen's update is rather downbeat with a mid-winter warming now unlikely till mid-late Dec if at all and he points out that the trop-strat connect is complicated, hence like 2015 the lower confidence of the strat/trop forecasts: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Anyway the wait for severe cold will be delayed for at least another 2 weeks when the Euro trough may return again, but with the Azores keeping those cold transient shots to our east I expect another UK miss. We need amplification  upstream, as the Azores is clearly a driver this Autumn and lots of potential, but even with the perfect trop scenario of a weak PV we just cannot get that omnipresent Pacific Ridge of last Winter to wake up. The good news as there is still no sign even at D16 for any consistent modelling of a resurgent PV and the vortex mean remains over Asia/Siberia, ideal for any Atlantic block and UK cold.

In the shorter term the SE should be under the influence from T48 for 6 days plus of a HP cell, so no complaints IMBY. 

[karlos1983]

36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks more in line with last two para ops which will be the op in twelve hours! (The last para op was pretty frigid due to slack continental flow )

 

looking at the means/anomolys on the para and op ec 46 says to me that any 'snowy' potential is pushed back till mid dec and beyond. prior to that looks quite anticyclonic so we could well be quite surface cold at times. 

So the ECM is upgrading today is it? Am I reading that right?

 

[knocker]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

So the ECM is upgrading today is it? Am I reading that right?

 

From 12Z

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

So the ECM is upgrading today is it? Am I reading that right?

 

It will be although the charts days 8-10 will still be completely wrong half the time! 

Keen to see the upgraded eps output as there might be some nice new tools related to it

[Seasonality]

40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will remain a long way away though with the synoptics been modelled.

Doesn't bother me, I get the best of both worlds. (hint, check out my location). ECM staying chilly for Central Europe all the way out to 240. I expect a good run of ice days for late November and the anomaly charts paint a chilly picture for most of mainland Europe.

[Seasonality]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

From 12Z

I hope @knocker will kindly post some of his usual fascinating charts from weatherbell. 

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Doesn't bother me, I get the best of both worlds. (hint, check out my location). ECM staying chilly for Central Europe all the way out to 240. I expect a good run of ice days for late November and the anomaly charts paint a chilly picture for most of mainland Europe.

Impressive cold modeled, but although the region has been colder than average, I generally find those temperatures are downgraded when it comes to the 5-6 day range. Just going by what happened so far, of course.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Impressive cold modeled, but although the region has been colder than average, I generally find those temperatures are downgraded when it comes to the 5-6 day range. Just going by what happened so far, of course.

You're right, I recall one or two ECM runs showing deep cold for time of year around 11 November for Warsaw and ended up still getting snow, but nothing too crazy temperature wise. However there seems to be more interrun consistency this time around so I remain quietly hopeful. Looking good for Chisinau too if it verifies.

[blizzard81]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, as it stands, hopefully plenty of fog and frost in the meantime ...doesnt look like the northern arm of the jet is going to allow for retrogression , dont want to see a sinking high into E urope though.

That's why I like the ecm run. It keeps pressure low over the Med, hence stopping the high from sinking. I don't think the gfs handles European blocking situations very well so I don't think I will be putting to much faith into this model over the next week or so. Ecm is king with regards to Euro blocks

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

You're right, I recall one or two ECM runs showing deep cold for time of year around 11 November for Warsaw and ended up still getting snow, but nothing too crazy temperature wise. However there seems to be more interrun consistency this time around so I remain quietly hopeful. Looking good for Chisinau too if it verifies.

I'm quite happy with seasonal norms :-) That deep cold soon gets very boring.

I'd expect the surface temperature predictions to calm down a bit in the next few days, as the attached would be quite unusual. 

 

[Banbury]

51 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well after the good charts last night I hoped for similar this morning but as usual another swing in the models. Slack cold and frost sounds good to me though, lets get the Synoptics correct before the real cold heads in. Ian's update sounds very promoiding still, a really cold Xmas break would be great! A day of swings in models on the way I feel. 

Trouble is mate both you and I might miss out on the frosts due to the Easterly wind. N England and Scotland could see some low temps Day and Night

Edited November 22, 2016 by Banbury

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

A few things  that stood out to me, firstly is why did everyone go wild over one ecm run last night? Exciting run I get that but one run should still make us skeptical until we see consistency, secondly this morning ecm after reading some comments on here I thought would be showing offensive charts lol but actually it's a fairly nice run. We have Europe going very cold and staying cold, and considering all these easterly spells we are having this autumn gives us more confidence that the next one could well be very different. And anything after t168 is up for grabs, litterelly it changes like the clappers and I never take it seriously apart try to pick patterns out. I think the cold could well come closer than is been modelled simply because these set up a are notoriously hard to master and quite offers the mods are way to progressive in moving it on

And lastly I really shouldn't pay much too much attention to long range forecasts apart from a possible pattern change etc because we have all been chasing cold now for 4 wks already and the cold spells are either very placid or just get moved backwards again so in apart from thinking this year has potential to be very different. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean looks pleasant from later this week through to next midweek with fine conditions across most of the uk with sunny spells and variable cloud, night frosts and fog.

Welcome relief for the areas which had flash flooding yesterday and others who prefer settled to wet and windy. 

[MR EXTREMES]

i dont agree its heading slowly but surely towards a unsettled and certainly nothing cold as the vortex fights back.

the block to our east has been a pain in the ass before a number of times.

we do get a neg nao but its west based and the uk stuck in no mans land.

we start with a feeble easterly but into the last few days of nov into december we see more of a flow from the se.

if continued drop of pressure to our east and south then might allow block into west nw.

but it looks like a slow decline into more mobile westerly type for first week of december.

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Ecm 00z from later this week and pretty much for the rest of the run with high pressure taking control bringing largely fine weather to most / all parts of the uk with decent sunny spells, light winds, variable cloud and fairly widespread night frosts with mist / fog overnight which could linger in places making for some cold days but in the sun it will feel pleasant.

So..a marked change from unsettled, very wet and windy to more benign pleasant conditions is on the way.

[beefy201]

8 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

I take the models with a pinch of North sea salt.... the GFS in winter reminds me of a girlfriend I once had after she'd had 8 pints of Stella. 

On a serious note it's was suggested earlier that their was consistency on all models to T+132/144hr ...

Yep consistently wrong 

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

i dont agree its heading slowly but surely towards a unsettled and certainly nothing cold as the vortex fights back.

the block to our east has been a pain in the ass before a number of times.

we do get a neg nao but its west based and the uk stuck in no mans land.

we start with a feeble easterly but into the last few days of nov into december we see more of a flow from the se.

if continued drop of pressure to our east and south then might allow block into west nw.

but it looks like a slow decline into more mobile westerly type for first week of december.

Not seeing the vortex really cranking up. Not exactly a raging coherent blob out in GFS far FI. Where do you get that from?

 

[MP-R]

Heatwave in FI!

Oh wait, that's two weeks hence! In the here and now:

Cool and dry for the foreseeable after rainy dregs today. Colder further north where high pressure will be more overhead, less cold further south with a nagging easterly wind pulling in warmer uppers and probably more in the way of cloud. Next week, the battle commences between a robust 1036mb high to the east, and a flimsy 1008mb low to the northwest. I know which one should win, but also know which one is more likely to win given we are the UK.

In the meantime however, it looks like a respite from the recent monsoon with frost/fog a possibility for the luck few later in the week.