Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[london-snow]

49 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

NAEFS should be quite bullish on the sharpening Euro trough week 2, as the GEM ensembles (as were the 00z) quite a bit keener on persisting +ve heights further east over Greenland.

Continued painful slow evolution in the convective wave over the Indian Ocean, but 12z outputs seem to be latching onto it judging by the appearance of a well defined North Pacific ridge. Just also a whiff from the GEFS of twin vortex development either side of the pole with a ridge between, encouraging the Pacific ridge poleward. Effectively mimicking a split vortex.

Encouraging I admit GP (And great to see you back by the way) however a split PV just for those who think all routes lead to cold we need a load of luck as it doesn't mean cold and snowy weather for us. 

[sorepaw1]

Dear Mods I've been trying to post a PPN chart from GFS. It says please contact us ie. Netweather. Sorry to post here I'm fairly new to this site and never seen this message before.

Sorry guys to interrupt the thread.

[Banbury]

240 could well see us on the verge of a Northerly

[Frosty.]

I picked some juicy cherries from the GEFS 12z tree, the mean trends colder and there are some cracking perturbations showing very cold potential for the early December period.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Banbury said:

240 could well see us on the verge of a Northerly

Borderline how this plays out at day 10...could do with a smidgen more WAA a day or so before to really put a wedge between that Canadian troughing and the lower heights east of Greenland. However it plays out, there is more potential there at day 9 than there was on the 0z run so I'll take that positive and say 'thank you very much'.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Dear Mods I've been trying to post a PPN chart from GFS. It says please contact us ie. Netweather. Sorry to post here I'm fairly new to this site and never seen this message before.

Sorry guys to interrupt the thread.

Works for me

 

[Summer Sun]

All that cold air to our east a case of so close yet so far

[booferking]

All around the 12z are much better hope this trend continues.

[SMU]

On 19/11/2016 at 20:32, feb1991blizzard said:

Unimpressed with the ECM 240 ensemble mean, lets hope it improves by 360.

ECM 216 produces an unlikely wintry event for the SW ( from the East ) as it drops the uppers to -6c, we are now entering the time where the continental cold can be on a par with the Northerly cold -

At 240 the NH profile looks good & a VERY high potential for snow over the UK for the opening day of winter...

S

 

[sorepaw1]

Thought I'd post this

i can't buy you all a pint so I'll give you this ..deepest FI but just to give us all a well deserved grin.

Look how many cold low pressure systems dotted about and alot of Europe covered.. has the French ski resorts ever been closed because of heavy snow. ;-)

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 216 produces an unlikely wintry event for the SW ( from the East ) as it drops the uppers to -6c, we are now entering the time where the continental cold can be on a par with the Northerly cold -

 

At 240 the NH profile looks good & a VERY high potential for snow over the UK for the opening day of winter...

 

S

 

Have you also noticed that pool of -12c uppers heading straight for Bexley Heath as well!!!!

Edited November 21, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Zakos]

Best anomaly charts at 216+ ive seen in a long time from the GFS and ECM, if it's still there tommorow I'd say we may well be facing a decent cold spell

Edited November 21, 2016 by Zakos

[Frosty.]

Much better looking Ecm 12z compared to last night, especially the day 10 chart, it ticks the right boxes.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Frosty.

[SMU]

On 19/11/2016 at 20:32, feb1991blizzard said:

Unimpressed with the ECM 240 ensemble mean, lets hope it improves by 360.

Yes duly noted those -12s..

Good jet allignment as well at 240 with a solid NE > SE trajectory.

Polar heights whilst not epic -NAO are great for pushing cold out of siberia...

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All that cold air to our east a case of so close yet so far

All that cold air to our east a case of so close yet so far

Agreed regarding the uppers but the ECM has loads of surface cold with the continental flow.

[SMU]

I bet the ECM day 8-10 debilt T2ms are around Freezing tonight !

A bit of moderation would be ~ +4c ish for England

[bluearmy]

 So many things to like about ECM day 10 apart from the fact that it's ten days away! 

[January Snowstorm]

Big upgrades today really....

We've moved from a potential kickstart of  the jet to a much more blocked outlook. In fact it never gets mild now over the next 10 days. 

While we ain't there yet, we are on the cusp of something v special 

[nick sussex]

What do we want northerly or easterly? Great to see that mild weather removed from mainland Europe and this evenings outputs have given us some possibilities.

Where we end up though is very uncertain because its complicated. The models want to take the main PV towards Siberia and this does put pressure on the high near Scandi.

Theres even chances for some snow within T240hrs if shortwave energy heads se and meets up with that colder continental air.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 So many things to like about ECM day 10 apart from the fact that it's ten days away! 

It's a cracker, has a locked in look about it at day 10..good news is there are plenty of Gefs 12z perturbations that look similar.cold eye candy overdose this evening..love it

Edited November 21, 2016 by Frosty.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well things  are looking  good  for  the  cold lovers  after  dec  5 if  f1  right lets  hope!!!

[Methuselah]

Great model-watching...Aye, surface cold looks like being the order-of-the-day. But, so long as that's accompanied by upper cold filtering down into mainland Europe, things really couldn't be much better: 2010 will never happen again. But 2016 might!

[Ventnor Viking]

So many interesting charts tonight - don't forget this time yesterday for many winter was all ready over!

Interesting that GFS favours a Greenland block and ECM more of an easterly flow.

I think yesterday I mentioned the model are struggling big time at the moment but one thing I will say im confident that some cold charts will appear relatively quickly and not so much in FI. With so many situations that the models aren't really programmed to factor in like SSW, Solar and SST that are changing frequently sooner rather than later we will see something v interesting!

[Yarmy]

58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The CFS has trended back very cold and snowy again (18z run 20th November), it has bitterly cold weather with some snow up until last week of December, very brief Atlantic, then bitterly cold Easterlies resume for Jan, with some huge pastings from battleground events on route to the final breakdown.

In the interests of balance, this morning's 1 month run was abysmal: it would give Dec 15 a run for its money.

Good agreement from the big 3 ops up to T144, then all a bit knife-edge.   

 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 So many things to like about ECM day 10 apart from the fact that it's ten days away! 

Don't know why so many are only mentioning the ecm day 10 chart. Things look much better on that run well before day 10