Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Chris.R]

If the Nina does indeed warm out then I don't see why winter could not just carry on in the same vein as it starts.  

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The control makes it....

Slowly getting there

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The control makes it....

So do loads of em!

[K9]

 

It certainly is 'the thrill of the chase' fellow 'Wakey' person..!!!...but what gets me is that year after year the computers generate such teasing charts....and they all fall flat on their face 99 times out of a 100...so why even bother having charts generated for so far out!!.......we should limit them to 7 days out at the very most !!

[nick sussex]

I think the GFS could be improved if there was more trough disruption sending energy more se rather than south between T192hrs and T240hrs. You'd want that energy heading in towards Germany and this would mean that the colder air will head south more quickly and gives more margin for error given the western negative NAO.

In terms of the evolution very good agreement upstream between the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs and NCEP expect that central USA troughing to verify. If you look at those two upstream lows these phase and the negative tilt helps WAA develop high pressure over west Greenland. I think the issue at present is how the GFS pulls down that low near Greenland, this happens because of a quick height rise to the north which forces this south.

I think we best wait to the ECM before putting too much weight on the GFS solution, it could be that the ECM finds a different route to something colder with hopefully a higher margin for error.

 

[knocker]

Not much significant to add to previous coments today on the GFS evolution in the ten day time frame.

Still looking at energy  shooting NE from the eastern seaboard and simultaneously phasing in with the trough to the north and, more importantly, our cut off upper low over Iberia. Thus by T162 we have a negatively tilted trough developing in mid Atlantic forcing the Azores HP to amplify NW into Canada.

From here the trough intensifies and moves east forcing the HP south east over Denmark. From here it's best left.

So to summarize the weather in very general terms. From Wednesday onwards it's essentially an HP/LP N/S split over the UK with a fairly light easterly wind componant so fairly dry wih perhaps some showery stuff in the south From around next Monday the high pressure will slide SE thus veering the surface flow and the frontal systems will be edging in from the west associated with the trough bring some more unsettled weather. Temps generally will be about average or just below but there could well be some quite large latitudinal and diurnal variations.

 

Edited November 21, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, K9 said:

 

It certainly is 'the thrill of the chase' fellow 'Wakey' person..!!!...but what gets me is that year after year the computers generate such teasing charts....and they all fall flat on their face 99 times out of a 100...so why even bother having charts generated for so far out!!.......we should limit them to 7 days out at the very most !!

Hi K9

With the more encouraging background signals which were woefully lacking at the same point last year, these low res charts showing wintry weather have more chance of being on the right track, I can't recall similar low res charts a year ago, they were screaming mild zonality for the most part.

[karlos1983]

35 minutes ago, Kieran said:

BRRRR....

 

That's a weather porn GIF right there!

Edited November 21, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Spaghetti 22 flatliners 0.

[Summer Sun]

Op on the the cold side of the mean from early Dec onwards

[Polar Maritime]

Sensible discussion please here-on-in, Thanks.

[bluearmy]

The mean and anomoly looks a damn sight better than trawling through the individual members.  Is this an occasion where the mean will prove more informative than the clusters? 

The anomoly broadly in line with the extended eps. waiting to see if these continue to trend more Atlantic end week 2. The 46 dayer due out later and tomorrows ECM  12z is the new cycle of the model (and I assume the eps will be also). 

The 00z para was a roadcrash for coldies who aren't interested in mid lat highs sinking south. 

[Glacier Point]

NAEFS should be quite bullish on the sharpening Euro trough week 2, as the GEM ensembles (as were the 00z) quite a bit keener on persisting +ve heights further east over Greenland.

Continued painful slow evolution in the convective wave over the Indian Ocean, but 12z outputs seem to be latching onto it judging by the appearance of a well defined North Pacific ridge. Just also a whiff from the GEFS of twin vortex development either side of the pole with a ridge between, encouraging the Pacific ridge poleward. Effectively mimicking a split vortex.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The mean and anomoly looks a damn sight better than trawling through the individual members.  Is this an occasion where the mean will prove more informative than the clusters? 

The anomoly broadly in line with the extended eps. waiting to see if these continue to trend more Atlantic end week 2. The 46 dayer due out later and tomorrows ECM  12z is the new cycle of the model (and I assume the eps will be also). 

The 00z para was a roadcrash for coldies who aren't interested in mid lat highs sinking south. 

That's the problem for me now, once you see the Atlantic trending stronger in FI ensembles, it usually is a sign, for me its a sign we are running out of time (not overall winter) but just this window of opportunity before the inevitable period of VI.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the problem for me now, once you see the Atlantic trending stronger in FI ensembles, it usually is a sign, for me its a sign we are running out of time (not overall winter) but just this window of opportunity before the inevitable period of VI.

Yeah, funny how models are so good at predicting zonality via an Atlantic onslaught. Can count down to it like clockwork most times.

[Lampostwatcher]

image:328452

[feb1991blizzard]

The CFS has trended back very cold and snowy again (18z run 20th November), it has bitterly cold weather with some snow up until last week of December, very brief Atlantic, then bitterly cold Easterlies resume for Jan, with some huge pastings from battleground events on route to the final breakdown.

[Dancerwithwings]

Not much difference At h144 ECM / UKMO

Edited November 21, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Not much difference At h144 GFS / UKMO

Nor the ECM

[tight isobar]

Ecm 12 @144.

And tyre track warmth at the pole begind to highlight shallow split vortex....

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Are we finally starting to get some consensus between the Big 3 at 144h?!

Not a bad consensus either if cold weather is your thing!

[booferking]

ECM goes a quicker route for cold Easterly anybody.

[Dancerwithwings]

Sorry meant that Feb1991....Correction made

[Allseasons-Si]

Ecm raising an eyebrow @ 168 hrs,a phantom easterly @ 192?,some cold uppers flooding into western Europe.

[Captain Shortwave]

  

The first run to really get that trough over Russia to get some cold air pushing west around the southern flank of that cut off high. It will be interesting to see if this is a future trend as this could help both in the short and long term. Short term the chance of a significant drop in temperatures and secondly the high is in prime position to retrograde once the low heights over Greenland drain and drag the deepest low heights towards Scandinavia.

Upstream is starting to look more amplified and much slacker hence we see that trough disrupt again the high to our north east. 

Edited November 21, 2016 by Captain Shortwave